Biotech Pipeline Valuation
valuation_biotechCalculate risk-adjusted biotech valuations for drug pipelines, including peak sales, decision-tree expected value, and full pipeline rNPV.
Instructions
Risk-adjusted biotech valuation: peak sales, decision-tree expected value, and full pipeline rNPV across drugs. Method selects the model. Use for pharma/drug pipelines; for hardware or deep tech use valuation_hardware. Parameters apply per method: peak_sales needs patient_population + penetration + price; decision_tree needs probabilities + terminal_value; pipeline needs drugs + discount_rate. Not for hardware or deep tech — for that use valuation_hardware. Only method is required; other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those named for the selected method and omit the rest (documented defaults apply where defined). Returns an object with value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps. Pure arithmetic: no I/O and no external calls, and numeric results are returned rounded to 2 decimals. No authentication, credentials, or rate limits apply. Supplying an unknown method, or leaving unset a parameter that the chosen method requires, returns an error instead of a value.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| drugs | No | Pipeline drugs: {name, peak_sales, probability, years_to_market, multiple(optional)}. | |
| price | No | Price per unit / treatment, currency units. | |
| method | Yes | Formula to apply. Options: peak_sales = Peak = population × penetration × price × compliance.; decision_tree = EV = Π pᵢ × terminal value.; pipeline = V = Σ(peak sales × multiple × P_success) / (1+r)^n. | |
| compliance | No | Compliance / adherence rate as a decimal. | |
| penetration | No | Market penetration as a decimal (0.10 = 10%). | |
| discount_rate | No | Discount rate as a decimal (0.12 = 12%). | |
| probabilities | No | Probability of each outcome or stage, each in [0,1]; the list must sum to 1 where it is exhaustive. | |
| terminal_value | No | Expected exit / terminal value, currency units. | |
| patient_population | No | Target patient population treated per year. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| error | No | Error message when the call fails. | |
| steps | No | Intermediate steps for traceability. | |
| value | Yes | Computed valuation or metric. | |
| inputs | No | Echo of the normalised inputs used. | |
| method | No | Formula / method name that produced the result. | |
| chapter | No | Source textbook chapter. | |
| assumptions | No | Modelling assumptions applied. | |
| formula_number | No | Source textbook formula number (e.g. '3.1'). |