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ryansilk

ApexVol MCP Server

calculate_probability_of_profit

Calculate the probability of profit for option spreads or condors using N(d2) analytics on combined payoffs.

Instructions

Calculate the probability of profit for a set of option legs.

Uses N(d2)-based probabilities on the combined position payoff.

Use this tool when the user asks about:

  • Probability of profit / PoP for a trade

  • Odds a spread or condor expires profitable

Args: legs: JSON array of legs, e.g. '[{"option_type": "put", "action": "sell", "strike": 95, "iv": 32.5, "premium": 1.20, "quantity": 1}]' (iv accepts percent or decimal; premium is per share) stock_price: Current stock price days_to_exp: Days to expiration

Returns: Probability of profit percentage

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
legsYes
days_to_expYes
stock_priceYes
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries the burden. It discloses the calculation method ('Uses N(d2)-based probabilities on the combined position payoff') and states the return value ('Returns: Probability of profit percentage'). It does not cover edge cases or error behavior, but for a calculator this is reasonably transparent.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured, starting with a clear one-sentence purpose, followed by usage, arguments, and returns. Each section is concise and adds value without redundancy.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description includes purpose, usage guidance, detailed parameter information, and return value. Despite the lack of an output schema, it sufficiently explains the tool's inputs and output for an agent to invoke correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 0%, so the description compensates well. It provides a full JSON example for legs with notes on iv units and premium per share, and brief definitions for stock_price and days_to_exp.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Calculate the probability of profit for a set of option legs,' using a specific verb and resource. It clearly distinguishes from sibling tools like calculate_expected_move by focusing on PoP.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states 'Use this tool when the user asks about: Probability of profit / PoP for a trade' and 'Odds a spread or condor expires profitable,' providing clear when-to-use context. It does not mention alternatives or exclusions, so it falls short of the highest score.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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