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backtest

Hold out final data points to compare forecast accuracy between TimesFM and a statistical baseline.

Instructions

Hold out the last N points and compare TimesFM vs baseline performance.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
valuesYesHistorical observations (at least holdout + 3 points).
holdoutNoNumber of final points to hold out for testing.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Behavior2/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Without annotations, the description must disclose behavioral traits. It mentions comparing performance but does not specify metrics, side effects, data sufficiency requirements, or output format. The existence of an output schema may fill some gaps, but the description itself is insufficient.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a single sentence that concisely conveys the core action. It is front-loaded and efficient, though a bit more detail could be added without harming brevity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's simplicity and the presence of an output schema, the description is adequate but lacks details such as what baseline is used or what performance metrics are computed. This might leave some ambiguity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

With 100% schema coverage, the schema already documents both parameters adequately. The description adds context about the comparison (TimesFM vs baseline) but does not enhance parameter meaning beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool performs a backtest by holding out the last N points and comparing TimesFM performance against a baseline. This distinguishes it from sibling tools 'forecast' (making predictions) and 'list_backends' (enumerating backends).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description implies the tool is for model evaluation via holdout validation, but it does not explicitly state when to use it instead of alternatives like 'forecast' or list conditions where it is not appropriate.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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