Tool

Description

compare_topic

Cross-venue prediction-market LANDSCAPE scanner: for one topic, show how 5 venues (Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Futuur) are pricing it side by side and flag divergence. Each venue is queried in parallel; a venue that errors or times out is reported as { reachable: false } and never fails the call. Returns each venue's top matches normalized to { venue, title, implied_probability (0-1 for the main/YES outcome, or null), url, n_outcomes }, plus a divergence summary across venues' top matches. HONESTY: this surfaces WHERE TO LOOK for mispricing — it is NOT an executable-arb tool. A high spread_pp usually reflects different bet shapes, resolution criteria, dates, or thin liquidity, not a real arbitrage. Divergence is only computed when ≥2 venues' top titles share strong token overlap (Jaccard); otherwise divergence is null with a low-match-quality note telling you to compare manually. Verify the questions resolve identically before trading. For executable poly↔kalshi arbitrage (needs order-book depth) use the polymarket_arbitrage pack.

venue_quotes

Single-venue drill-down: fetch one venue's current top 5 matches for a query, each as { title, implied_probability (0-1 or null), url }. Useful after compare_topic to look closer at one venue. Implied probability is the main/YES outcome where available; multi-outcome markets report the top outcome and note it. Keyless.