kalshi_implied_probability
Calculate implied probability, payout yields, YES vs NO outcomes, and Kelly criterion sizing for Kalshi contracts to evaluate trade edge and risk.
Instructions
Calculates market implied probability, gross & net payout yields, event scenario outcomes (YES win vs NO win), and Kelly criterion sizing for Kalshi contracts.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| price | Yes | Kalshi contract market price in cents (e.g. 52 for 52¢) or dollars (e.g. 0.52). | |
| outcome | No | Outcome side to analyze (default: 'YES'). | YES |
| contracts | No | Number of contracts in hypothetical trade (default: 100). | |
| bankroll_usd | No | Total bankroll in USD to calculate Kelly dollar allocation (default: $10,000). | |
| settlement_days | No | Days remaining until market expiration/settlement to calculate annualized APY yield. | |
| subjective_prob_pct | No | Your estimated subjective true probability in percentage (e.g. 60 for 60%) to compute edge, EV, and Kelly criterion allocation. |