OO-EPC-MCP 📐⚡

A lightweight, high-performance Model Context Protocol (MCP) server for sports betting analytics and actuarial mathematics.

Built on FastMCP / official MCP Python SDK (MCPServer). Exposes pure mathematical algorithms with zero external API calls, zero secret keys, and sub-millisecond local deterministic execution.

🛠️ Tools Provided

1. devig_oo_epc

Calculates true unbiased 1X2 probabilities from 3-way bookmaker odds using the Tokyo University Shota Goto (2026) OO-EPC (Odds-on Equal Profit Margin) convex optimization algorithm.

• Parameters:

  • home_odds (float): Decimal odds for Home Win (e.g. 1.51)

  • draw_odds (float): Decimal odds for Draw (e.g. 4.30)

  • away_odds (float): Decimal odds for Away Win (e.g. 4.60)

• Returns:

  • Unbiased true probability vector (probabilities, percentages)

  • Bookmaker overround / margin (margin)

  • Formatted display text (63.4% / 19.1% / 17.5%)

2. poisson_dixon_coles

Calculates bivariate Poisson match score probabilities with Dixon-Coles low-score factor adjustments (handling the systematic underestimation of low-scoring draws like 0-0, 1-1).

• Parameters:

  • home_lambda (float): Expected goals for Home Team (e.g. 1.85)

  • away_lambda (float): Expected goals for Away Team (e.g. 0.95)

  • max_goals (int, optional, default 8): Upper bound of goals evaluated per side

  • top_n (int, optional, default 6): Top $N$ most probable scorelines

• Returns:

  • Expected total goals

  • True 1X2 win/draw/loss probability distribution

  • Top scorelines ranked by probability with exact percentages and fair odds

Related MCP server: SportsQuant MCP Server

🚀 Quick Start & Installation

Option 1: Run with uv (Recommended)

No manual environment setup needed:

uv run server.py

Option 2: Run with standard pip

pip install -r requirements.txt
python server.py

🔌 Client Integration

Claude Desktop

Add this to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-math": {
      "command": "python",
      "args": [
        "/path/to/OO-EPC-MCP/server.py"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Hermes Agent

Add this to your ~/.hermes/config.yaml:

mcp_servers:
  sports-math:
    command: python
    args:
      - /path/to/OO-EPC-MCP/server.py

Cursor (.cursor/mcp.json)

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-math": {
      "command": "python",
      "args": ["/path/to/OO-EPC-MCP/server.py"]
    }
  }
}

📚 Mathematical Citations

• Goto, Shota (2026). Odds-on Equal Profit Margin (OO-EPC) Method for Multi-way Betting Market De-vigging. The University of Tokyo.

• Dixon, M. J., & Coles, S. G. (1997). Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market. Applied Statistics (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C), 46(2), 265–280.

📄 License

MIT License © 2026 i0ivi0i