Nearest historical analogs
historical_analogsFind past days similar to today's funding conditions, see how often they led to a stress event, and flag if today lacks close precedent. Grounds 'what happens next' in real history.
Instructions
The historical days most similar to today's funding conditions, and how often those analogs led to a stress event, plus a novelty flag for whether today has any close precedent. Use to ground a 'what usually happens from here' question in real history.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
No arguments | |||
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| ok | No | False for a tool failure. | |
| as_of | No | ||
| reason | No | ||
| status | No | ||
| novelty | No | ||
| reading | No | ||
| category | No | ||
| event_odds | No | ||
| horizon_bd | No | ||
| forward_fan | No | ||
| hindcast_skill | No | ||
| nearest_analogs | No | ||
| historical_evidence | No |