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score_forecasts

Assess forecast accuracy by scoring each past prediction using only contemporaneous data, then report calibration and biggest misses.

Instructions

How good would these forecasts actually have been? Grades every prediction the tool would have made over the history, using only what was known at the time, and reports calibration plus the worst misses.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
valuesYesthe metric's history, oldest first
nominalNorange coverage, default 0.8
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. It discloses that the tool uses only information known at the time (avoiding look-ahead bias) and reports calibration and worst misses. No destructive side effects mentioned, which is appropriate for a read-only evaluation tool.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Single sentence, front-loaded with purpose, no redundant information. Every word contributes meaning.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description adequately hints at return values ('calibration plus worst misses'). Parameter descriptions in schema complement well. No significant gaps for a tool of this complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with parameter descriptions for 'values' and 'nominal'. The description adds no new meaning beyond what the schema already provides, so baseline score of 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool 'grades every prediction the tool would have made over the history' and 'reports calibration plus the worst misses', using specific verbs 'grade' and 'reports'. It distinguishes from siblings like 'forecast_next' by focusing on historical evaluation.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No guidance on when to use this tool versus alternatives like 'forecast_next' or 'ab_test'. The description implies usage for historical forecast evaluation but does not provide explicit context or exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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