Luck-equivalent trials
validate_luck_trialsDetermine how many skill-less strategies a search would need to try for its best to reach a Sharpe by luck, and the chance that your trial count did.
Instructions
How many skill-less strategies a search would have had to try for its best to reach this Sharpe by luck, and, with a trial count, the chance that it did. Calibrated by Monte Carlo. A deflated Sharpe or overfitting probability above or below any threshold is not admission to anything and is not a forecast.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| skew | No | Skewness of the returns; below -0.5 the reading warns that the counts are too generous. | |
| observations | Yes | Number of return observations behind the Sharpe ratio. | |
| autocorrelation | No | First-order autocorrelation of the returns, -1 to 1; default 0. Corrects the annualized Sharpe as Lo (2002). | |
| periods_per_year | Yes | Observations per year: 252 daily, 365 daily crypto, 52 weekly, 12 monthly. | |
| observed_sharpe_annualized | Yes | Annualized Sharpe as observed. | |
| effective_independent_trials | No | Independent trials tried; adds the chance that the best of them reached this Sharpe by luck. |