log_assessment
Record forward-looking assessments with numeric probabilities for calibration tracking via Brier scoring. Predictions are scored against actual outcomes.
Instructions
Log a forward-looking assessment to the judgment ledger. Use this whenever making a prediction, recommendation, or forward-looking call. Prefer a numeric 'probability' (0-1) — it enables real calibration (Brier score) over time. Assessments are tracked and later scored against what actually happened.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| text | Yes | The assessment or prediction, stated clearly | |
| logic | No | The reasoning behind this assessment at the time | |
| domain | Yes | Assessment domain (one of the configured LEDGER_DOMAINS) | |
| horizon | No | Expected resolution timeframe e.g. '2 weeks', '3 months' | |
| conditions | No | Relevant conditions or context at time of assessment | |
| confidence | No | Categorical confidence, used only if 'probability' is omitted (high=0.9, moderate=0.75, low=0.6) | moderate |
| probability | No | Forecast probability the call proves right, 0-1 (e.g. 0.7). Preferred over 'confidence'; enables Brier scoring. | |
| source_session | No | Brief label for where this came from e.g. 'planning session 2025-01-15' |