score_calibration
Evaluate the calibration of probability predictions against binary outcomes using Brier and log scores. Lower scores indicate better calibration for forecasters or models.
Instructions
Score how well-calibrated a set of probability predictions are against observed binary outcomes using Brier score and log score. Use to evaluate forecaster accuracy, model calibration, prediction-market fairness. Lower Brier/log score = better. predictions[i] is the probability assigned to event i; outcomes[i] is 1 if it happened, 0 otherwise. For comparing multiple forecasters' agreement, use score_convergence instead. Free.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| predictions | Yes | Predicted probabilities in [0,1]. | |
| outcomes | Yes | Binary realised outcomes. Must be the same length as predictions. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | Yes | Mean squared error between probability and outcome (lower is better). | |
| log_score | Yes | Negative log-likelihood (lower is better; -inf possible if a 0-prob event happens). | |
| n_predictions | Yes | ||
| mean_prediction | No | ||
| mean_outcome | No |