cuba_calibrar
Calibrates prediction confidence by tracking verify outcomes and computing per-source Bayesian credibility, Brier score, and expected calibration error.
Instructions
Bayesian confidence calibration: track verify predictions, mark outcomes, compute P(correct|level). Closes the feedback loop between faro verify and eco correct. v0.9: action 'trust' returns per-source credibility (Beta posterior updated by resolve outcomes; Yin-Han-Yu IEEE TKDE 2008).
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max results for history (default 20) | |
| action | Yes | Calibration action. v0.9: 'trust' returns per-source Beta(α, β) credibility; 'metrics' returns Brier score (1950) + Expected Calibration Error (Naeini AAAI 2015) + reliability diagram. | |
| outcome | No | Whether the verify prediction was right (for resolve) | |
| verify_id | No | Verify log UUID (for resolve) |