weather_forecast
Get weather probability forecasts for major US cities using a 7-model consensus and 80 ensemble members. Returns empirical and blended probabilities, signal (YES/NO/PASS), and outlier detection when a threshold is given.
Instructions
7-model consensus + 80 ensemble members (GEFS 30 + ECMWF 50) for weather probability. When a threshold is given, returns both an empirical probability (direct member count) and a blended prob_exceeds (60% empirical / 40% Gumbel). Also returns method_divergence: if empirical and Gumbel disagree by >0.15, signal is forced to PASS regardless of spread. Also returns: signal (YES/NO/PASS), outlier (which model disagrees most with consensus). Coordinates aligned to NWS ASOS stations used by Kalshi/Polymarket for settlement. Cities: Chicago, New York, Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, LA. direction: 'greater' or 'less'. Cost: $0.02 via x402.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| city | Yes | ||
| date | No | ||
| threshold | No | ||
| direction | No | greater |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
No arguments | |||