Calibration Ledger — trust a forecast, with evidence (beta)
publicrecords--calibration-ledgerVerify an institution's forecast track record before trusting a cited claim. Returns error distribution, bias, band coverage, and worst misses with source links, or an explicit no-coverage answer.
Instructions
Calibration Ledger — trust a forecast, with evidence (beta). Given a claim from an organization (IMF, OECD, Fed/FOMC, SPF, ECB SPF, or a listed issuer), returns that organization's track record: error distribution, intervals, bias, band coverage, worst misses with source links — or honest 'no coverage' (free). Organizations only, never people.
When to use: Use when someone cites a forecast from an institution (IMF, OECD, Fed/FOMC, SPF, ECB SPF or a listed issuer) and you need to know how accurate that institution's past forecasts were. Returns error distribution, bias and worst misses with source links, or an explicit no-coverage answer.
Returns: the run's dataset rows as structured JSON (one row per result), plus the run and dataset IDs for paging the full dataset.
Behavior: starts one run of the Apify Actor "publicrecords/calibration-ledger" through Apify's hosted MCP gateway (mcp.apify.com) with your own APIFY_TOKEN; the run uses your Apify account. Read-only: it only reads public web data and changes nothing on the source site. Docs: https://apify.com/publicrecords/calibration-ledger
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| geo | No | ISO3 country code, EA, or USA. Required for most score/lookup/compare calls. Example: "CAN" | |
| mode | Yes | text = hand it a sentence ("The IMF expects Canada's economy to grow 1.8% in 2027"). lookup/score/compare use structured fields. | text |
| point | No | Numeric claimed value for lookup mode (string so decimals stay exact). Example: "1.8" | |
| issuer | No | Organization name as it appears on its releases/filings (e.g. Salesforce Inc). Both records are returned: dated promises (newswires) and numeric guidance (EDGAR). | |
| series | No | Generated from rules.yaml — every series the ledger resolves. Example: "RGDP_GROWTH_A" | |
| source | No | imf_weo | oecd_eo | fed_sep | spf | ecb_spf | pbo, or an issuer name; optional in text mode Example: "oecd_eo" | |
| claim_id | No | Ledger claim id for verify mode. | |
| band_kind | No | For Fed SEP score mode: central_tendency or range. | |
| claim_text | No | Free-text claim for text mode (e.g. "The IMF expects Canada's economy to grow 1.8% in 2027"). Example: "The IMF expects Canada's economy to grow 1.8% in 2027." | |
| published_at | No | When the claim was published (YYYY-MM-DD), for lookup/verify. Example: "2026-06-01" | |
| target_period | No | Target period as YYYY, YYYYQn, or YYYY-MM when looking up a specific claim. Example: "2027" | |
| horizon_bucket | No | Optional horizon bucket filter for score mode. |