Calibration report
polymarket_calibration_reportResolve settled snapshots and compute Brier score, ECE, and reliability curves to measure how well Polymarket's prices match actual outcomes.
Instructions
Score the calibration snapshots: resolve any that have settled since, then compute a reliability curve (predicted vs observed per decile) + Brier score + ECE. Tells you whether the market's prices are honest. Needs elapsed time for markets to resolve, so it's sparse early on.
Args:
min_resolved (number, default 1): note if fewer than this have resolved.
Returns: { totalSnapshots, resolvedCount, pendingCount, brier, ece, curve:[{bucket,label,n,predictedMean,observedFreq}] }.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| min_resolved | No | Minimum resolved snapshots before computing metrics (default 1). | |
| response_format | No | Output format: 'markdown' (concise, human-readable; default) or 'json' (full structured data). | markdown |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| ece | Yes | ||
| brier | Yes | ||
| curve | Yes | ||
| pendingCount | Yes | ||
| resolvedCount | Yes | ||
| totalSnapshots | Yes |