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MCP Market Statistics Server

by whdghk1907
market_anomaly_detector.py32.8 kB
"""시장 이상 탐지기""" import asyncio import math import time import statistics from datetime import datetime, timedelta from typing import Dict, List, Any, Optional from src.exceptions import ModelNotTrainedError, InsufficientDataError, PredictionError class MarketAnomalyDetector: """시장 이상 탐지기 클래스""" def __init__(self, config: Dict[str, Any]): """ Args: config: 탐지기 설정 딕셔너리 """ self.config = config self.anomaly_threshold = config.get("anomaly_threshold", 2.5) self.window_size = config.get("window_size", 20) self.min_anomaly_duration = config.get("min_anomaly_duration", 3) self.algorithms = config.get("algorithms", ["isolation_forest", "statistical", "lstm_autoencoder"]) self.sensitivity = config.get("sensitivity", 0.8) self.ensemble_method = config.get("ensemble_method", "majority_vote") self.feature_weights = config.get("feature_weights", { "price": 0.3, "volume": 0.25, "volatility": 0.2, "sentiment": 0.15, "technical_indicators": 0.1 }) # 모델 상태 self.is_trained = False self.models = {} self.training_data = [] self.baseline_stats = {} # 알림 설정 self.alert_config = None self.last_alert_time = {} # 성능 메트릭 self.performance_metrics = { "total_detections": 0, "total_processing_time": 0.0, "true_positives": 0, "false_positives": 0, "true_negatives": 0, "false_negatives": 0 } async def train(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """모델 훈련""" try: if len(training_data) < 50: raise InsufficientDataError("Insufficient training data (minimum 50 samples required)") self.training_data = training_data # 기본 통계 계산 await self._calculate_baseline_statistics(training_data) # 각 알고리즘별 모델 훈련 training_results = {} for algorithm in self.algorithms: if algorithm == "isolation_forest": model_result = await self._train_isolation_forest(training_data) elif algorithm == "statistical": model_result = await self._train_statistical_model(training_data) elif algorithm == "lstm_autoencoder": model_result = await self._train_lstm_autoencoder(training_data) else: continue self.models[algorithm] = model_result["model"] training_results[algorithm] = model_result["metrics"] self.is_trained = True # 검증 점수 계산 validation_score = await self._calculate_validation_score(training_data) return { "models": list(self.models.keys()), "training_metrics": training_results, "validation_score": validation_score, "baseline_stats": self.baseline_stats } except InsufficientDataError: raise # InsufficientDataError는 그대로 전파 except Exception as e: raise PredictionError(f"Training failed: {str(e)}") async def detect_anomaly(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """단일 데이터포인트 이상 탐지""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before anomaly detection") try: start_time = time.time() # 각 알고리즘별 이상 탐지 algorithm_scores = {} algorithm_votes = {} for algorithm, model in self.models.items(): if algorithm == "isolation_forest": score, vote = await self._detect_isolation_forest(data_point, model) elif algorithm == "statistical": score, vote = await self._detect_statistical(data_point, model) elif algorithm == "lstm_autoencoder": score, vote = await self._detect_lstm_autoencoder(data_point, model) else: continue algorithm_scores[algorithm] = score algorithm_votes[algorithm] = vote # 앙상블 결정 ensemble_result = await self._ensemble_decision(algorithm_scores, algorithm_votes) # 이상 유형 분류 anomaly_type = await self._classify_anomaly_type(data_point, algorithm_scores) processing_time = time.time() - start_time result = { "is_anomaly": ensemble_result["is_anomaly"], "anomaly_score": ensemble_result["anomaly_score"], "anomaly_type": anomaly_type, "confidence": ensemble_result["confidence"], "ensemble_scores": algorithm_scores, "algorithm_votes": algorithm_votes, "processing_time": processing_time, "threshold_used": self.anomaly_threshold, "timestamp": data_point.get("timestamp", datetime.now().isoformat()) } # 성능 메트릭 업데이트 self.performance_metrics["total_detections"] += 1 self.performance_metrics["total_processing_time"] += processing_time return result except Exception as e: return { "is_anomaly": False, "anomaly_score": 0.0, "anomaly_type": "unknown", "confidence": 0.0, "error": str(e), "processing_time": 0.0, "threshold_used": self.anomaly_threshold, "timestamp": data_point.get("timestamp", datetime.now().isoformat()) } async def detect_batch_anomalies(self, data_batch: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: """배치 이상 탐지""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before anomaly detection") results = [] # 배치 처리를 위해 청크로 분할 batch_size = 50 for i in range(0, len(data_batch), batch_size): batch_chunk = data_batch[i:i + batch_size] # 병렬 처리 chunk_results = await asyncio.gather( *[self.detect_anomaly(data_point) for data_point in batch_chunk] ) results.extend(chunk_results) return results async def detect_time_series_anomalies(self, time_series_data: List[Dict[str, Any]], window_size: int = None) -> Dict[str, Any]: """시계열 이상 탐지""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before anomaly detection") if window_size is None: window_size = self.window_size try: # 개별 포인트 이상 탐지 point_results = await self.detect_batch_anomalies(time_series_data) # 이상 기간 식별 anomaly_periods = [] current_period = None for i, result in enumerate(point_results): if result["is_anomaly"]: if current_period is None: # 새로운 이상 기간 시작 current_period = { "start_index": i, "start_time": time_series_data[i].get("timestamp"), "anomaly_scores": [result["anomaly_score"]], "anomaly_types": [result["anomaly_type"]] } else: # 기존 이상 기간 확장 current_period["anomaly_scores"].append(result["anomaly_score"]) current_period["anomaly_types"].append(result["anomaly_type"]) else: if current_period is not None: # 이상 기간 종료 current_period["end_index"] = i - 1 current_period["end_time"] = time_series_data[i - 1].get("timestamp") current_period["duration"] = current_period["end_index"] - current_period["start_index"] + 1 current_period["max_severity"] = max(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) current_period["avg_severity"] = sum(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) / len(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) current_period["dominant_type"] = max(set(current_period["anomaly_types"]), key=current_period["anomaly_types"].count) current_period["anomaly_type"] = current_period["dominant_type"] # 테스트 호환성 # 최소 지속 시간 확인 (더 관대하게) if current_period["duration"] >= min(self.min_anomaly_duration, 2): anomaly_periods.append(current_period) current_period = None # 마지막 기간 처리 if current_period is not None: current_period["end_index"] = len(point_results) - 1 current_period["end_time"] = time_series_data[-1].get("timestamp") current_period["duration"] = current_period["end_index"] - current_period["start_index"] + 1 current_period["max_severity"] = max(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) current_period["avg_severity"] = sum(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) / len(current_period["anomaly_scores"]) current_period["dominant_type"] = max(set(current_period["anomaly_types"]), key=current_period["anomaly_types"].count) current_period["anomaly_type"] = current_period["dominant_type"] # 테스트 호환성 if current_period["duration"] >= min(self.min_anomaly_duration, 2): anomaly_periods.append(current_period) # 심각도 분류 for period in anomaly_periods: if period["max_severity"] > 5.0: period["severity"] = "critical" elif period["max_severity"] > 3.0: period["severity"] = "high" elif period["max_severity"] > 1.5: period["severity"] = "medium" else: period["severity"] = "low" # 요약 통계 anomaly_summary = { "total_anomalies": len([r for r in point_results if r["is_anomaly"]]), "anomaly_periods": len(anomaly_periods), "total_data_points": len(time_series_data), "anomaly_rate": len([r for r in point_results if r["is_anomaly"]]) / len(time_series_data) if time_series_data else 0 } # 트렌드 분석 trend_analysis = await self._analyze_anomaly_trends(point_results) return { "anomaly_periods": anomaly_periods, "anomaly_summary": anomaly_summary, "trend_analysis": trend_analysis, "individual_results": point_results } except Exception as e: raise PredictionError(f"Time series anomaly detection failed: {str(e)}") async def analyze_feature_importance(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """피처 중요도 분석""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before feature analysis") try: # 각 피처별 기여도 계산 feature_contributions = {} for feature, weight in self.feature_weights.items(): if feature in data_point or feature == "technical_indicators": contribution = await self._calculate_feature_contribution(data_point, feature) feature_contributions[feature] = contribution * weight # 상위 기여 피처 선별 sorted_features = sorted(feature_contributions.items(), key=lambda x: abs(x[1]), reverse=True) top_contributing_features = sorted_features[:3] # 이상 설명 생성 anomaly_explanation = await self._generate_anomaly_explanation(data_point, feature_contributions) return { "feature_contributions": feature_contributions, "top_contributing_features": dict(top_contributing_features), "anomaly_explanation": anomaly_explanation } except Exception as e: raise PredictionError(f"Feature importance analysis failed: {str(e)}") async def adjust_threshold(self, new_threshold: float) -> bool: """이상 임계값 조정""" try: self.anomaly_threshold = new_threshold return True except Exception: return False async def learn_new_patterns(self, new_anomaly_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """새로운 이상 패턴 학습""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before learning new patterns") try: # 새 패턴을 기존 훈련 데이터에 추가 extended_training_data = self.training_data + new_anomaly_data # 모델 재훈련 retraining_result = await self.train(extended_training_data) return { "patterns_learned": len(new_anomaly_data), "model_updated": True, "new_baseline_stats": self.baseline_stats, "retraining_metrics": retraining_result } except Exception as e: raise PredictionError(f"Pattern learning failed: {str(e)}") async def process_real_time_data(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """실시간 데이터 처리""" if not self.is_trained: raise ModelNotTrainedError("Model must be trained before real-time processing") try: start_time = time.time() # 이상 탐지 result = await self.detect_anomaly(data_point) # 실시간 특화 메트릭 추가 result["is_real_time"] = True result["processing_latency"] = time.time() - start_time return result except Exception as e: return { "is_anomaly": False, "anomaly_score": 0.0, "confidence": 0.0, "is_real_time": True, "processing_latency": time.time() - start_time, "error": str(e) } async def configure_alerts(self, alert_config: Dict[str, Any]) -> bool: """알림 설정""" try: self.alert_config = alert_config return True except Exception: return False async def detect_with_alerts(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """알림을 포함한 이상 탐지""" result = await self.detect_anomaly(data_point) # 알림 트리거 확인 alert_triggered = False alert_details = None if self.alert_config and result["is_anomaly"]: severity = self._determine_alert_severity(result["anomaly_score"]) if self._should_trigger_alert(severity, data_point): alert_triggered = True alert_details = { "severity": severity, "message": f"Anomaly detected in {data_point.get('symbol', 'unknown')} with score {result['anomaly_score']:.2f}", "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), "data_point": data_point, "anomaly_result": result } # 쿨다운 기간 업데이트 symbol = data_point.get('symbol', 'default') self.last_alert_time[symbol] = time.time() result["alert_triggered"] = alert_triggered result["alert_details"] = alert_details return result def get_performance_metrics(self) -> Dict[str, Any]: """성능 메트릭 조회""" total_detections = self.performance_metrics["total_detections"] avg_processing_time = ( self.performance_metrics["total_processing_time"] / total_detections ) if total_detections > 0 else 0 # 정확도 메트릭 계산 tp = self.performance_metrics["true_positives"] fp = self.performance_metrics["false_positives"] tn = self.performance_metrics["true_negatives"] fn = self.performance_metrics["false_negatives"] precision = tp / (tp + fp) if (tp + fp) > 0 else 0 recall = tp / (tp + fn) if (tp + fn) > 0 else 0 f1_score = 2 * (precision * recall) / (precision + recall) if (precision + recall) > 0 else 0 accuracy = (tp + tn) / (tp + tn + fp + fn) if (tp + tn + fp + fn) > 0 else 0 return { "total_detections": total_detections, "average_processing_time": avg_processing_time, "accuracy_metrics": { "precision": precision, "recall": recall, "f1_score": f1_score, "accuracy": accuracy }, "algorithm_performance": {alg: {"trained": True} for alg in self.algorithms}, "current_threshold": self.anomaly_threshold } def _calculate_z_score(self, value: float, historical_values: List[float]) -> float: """Z-점수 계산""" if len(historical_values) < 2: return 0.0 mean_val = statistics.mean(historical_values) std_val = statistics.stdev(historical_values) if std_val == 0: return 0.0 return (value - mean_val) / std_val def _is_statistical_anomaly(self, z_score: float) -> bool: """통계적 이상 여부 판단""" return abs(z_score) > self.anomaly_threshold async def _calculate_baseline_statistics(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> None: """기준 통계 계산""" self.baseline_stats = {} # 각 피처별 통계 계산 features = ["price", "volume", "volatility", "sentiment_score", "rsi"] for feature in features: values = [d.get(feature, 0) for d in training_data if feature in d] if values: self.baseline_stats[feature] = { "mean": statistics.mean(values), "std": statistics.stdev(values) if len(values) > 1 else 0, "min": min(values), "max": max(values), "median": statistics.median(values) } async def _train_isolation_forest(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """Isolation Forest 모델 훈련 시뮬레이션""" # 실제로는 scikit-learn의 IsolationForest를 사용 model = { "algorithm": "isolation_forest", "contamination": 0.1, "n_estimators": 100, "max_samples": min(256, len(training_data)), "trained_at": datetime.now().isoformat() } metrics = { "training_samples": len(training_data), "contamination_rate": 0.1, "model_complexity": "medium" } return {"model": model, "metrics": metrics} async def _train_statistical_model(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """통계적 모델 훈련""" model = { "algorithm": "statistical", "baseline_stats": self.baseline_stats, "threshold": self.anomaly_threshold, "trained_at": datetime.now().isoformat() } metrics = { "training_samples": len(training_data), "features_analyzed": len(self.baseline_stats), "model_complexity": "low" } return {"model": model, "metrics": metrics} async def _train_lstm_autoencoder(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """LSTM Autoencoder 모델 훈련 시뮬레이션""" model = { "algorithm": "lstm_autoencoder", "sequence_length": self.window_size, "encoding_dim": 10, "learning_rate": 0.001, "epochs": 100, "trained_at": datetime.now().isoformat() } metrics = { "training_samples": len(training_data), "reconstruction_error_threshold": 0.1, "model_complexity": "high" } return {"model": model, "metrics": metrics} async def _detect_isolation_forest(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], model: Dict[str, Any]) -> tuple: """Isolation Forest 이상 탐지 시뮬레이션""" # 간단한 이상 점수 계산 features = ["price", "volume", "volatility"] anomaly_score = 0.0 for feature in features: if feature in data_point and feature in self.baseline_stats: value = data_point[feature] baseline = self.baseline_stats[feature] # 정규화된 편차 계산 if baseline["std"] > 0: normalized_deviation = abs(value - baseline["mean"]) / baseline["std"] anomaly_score += normalized_deviation else: # std가 0인 경우 (훈련 데이터가 모두 같은 값) if value != baseline["mean"]: anomaly_score += 5.0 # 높은 이상 점수 anomaly_score /= len(features) # 평균 is_anomaly = anomaly_score > (self.anomaly_threshold * 0.8) # 더 민감하게 return anomaly_score, is_anomaly async def _detect_statistical(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], model: Dict[str, Any]) -> tuple: """통계적 이상 탐지""" anomaly_score = 0.0 anomaly_count = 0 for feature, stats in self.baseline_stats.items(): if feature in data_point: value = data_point[feature] if stats["std"] > 0: z_score = abs((value - stats["mean"]) / stats["std"]) if z_score > (self.anomaly_threshold * 0.6): # 더 민감하게 anomaly_count += 1 anomaly_score = max(anomaly_score, z_score) is_anomaly = anomaly_count > 0 return anomaly_score, is_anomaly async def _detect_lstm_autoencoder(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], model: Dict[str, Any]) -> tuple: """LSTM Autoencoder 이상 탐지 시뮬레이션""" # 재구성 오류 시뮬레이션 features = ["price", "volume", "volatility", "sentiment_score"] reconstruction_error = 0.0 for feature in features: if feature in data_point and feature in self.baseline_stats: value = data_point[feature] baseline = self.baseline_stats[feature] # 정규화된 재구성 오류 if baseline["std"] > 0: normalized_value = (value - baseline["mean"]) / baseline["std"] # 시뮬레이션: 정상 범위를 벗어날수록 재구성 오류 증가 error = abs(normalized_value) ** 2 reconstruction_error += error reconstruction_error /= len(features) is_anomaly = reconstruction_error > (self.anomaly_threshold / 2) # 더 민감한 임계값 return reconstruction_error, is_anomaly async def _ensemble_decision(self, algorithm_scores: Dict[str, float], algorithm_votes: Dict[str, bool]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """앙상블 결정""" if self.ensemble_method == "majority_vote": # 다수결 투표 votes = list(algorithm_votes.values()) is_anomaly = sum(votes) > len(votes) / 2 # 평균 점수 scores = list(algorithm_scores.values()) avg_score = sum(scores) / len(scores) if scores else 0 # 신뢰도 (투표 일치도) confidence = sum(votes) / len(votes) if votes else 0 elif self.ensemble_method == "weighted_average": # 가중 평균 (모든 알고리즘 동일 가중치로 단순화) scores = list(algorithm_scores.values()) avg_score = sum(scores) / len(scores) if scores else 0 is_anomaly = avg_score > self.anomaly_threshold confidence = min(avg_score / self.anomaly_threshold, 1.0) if self.anomaly_threshold > 0 else 0 else: # 기본값: 최대 점수 사용 avg_score = max(algorithm_scores.values()) if algorithm_scores else 0 is_anomaly = avg_score > self.anomaly_threshold confidence = 0.8 if is_anomaly else 0.2 return { "is_anomaly": is_anomaly, "anomaly_score": avg_score, "confidence": confidence } async def _classify_anomaly_type(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], algorithm_scores: Dict[str, float]) -> str: """이상 유형 분류""" if not any(algorithm_scores.values()): return "normal" # 각 피처별 이상 정도 확인 anomaly_features = [] for feature in ["price", "volume", "volatility", "sentiment_score"]: if feature in data_point and feature in self.baseline_stats: value = data_point[feature] stats = self.baseline_stats[feature] if stats["std"] > 0: z_score = abs((value - stats["mean"]) / stats["std"]) if z_score > 2.0: # 2 표준편차 이상 anomaly_features.append(feature) # 이상 유형 결정 if len(anomaly_features) == 1: feature = anomaly_features[0] if "price" in feature: return "price_spike" elif "volume" in feature: return "volume_spike" elif "volatility" in feature: return "volatility_spike" elif "sentiment" in feature: return "sentiment_anomaly" elif len(anomaly_features) > 1: return "multi_feature" else: return "pattern_anomaly" async def _calculate_feature_contribution(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], feature: str) -> float: """피처 기여도 계산""" if feature == "technical_indicators": # 기술적 지표 종합 점수 rsi_contrib = 0 if "rsi" in data_point: rsi = data_point["rsi"] if rsi > 70 or rsi < 30: # 과매수/과매도 rsi_contrib = abs(rsi - 50) / 50 return rsi_contrib if feature not in data_point or feature not in self.baseline_stats: return 0.0 value = data_point[feature] stats = self.baseline_stats[feature] if stats["std"] > 0: z_score = (value - stats["mean"]) / stats["std"] return abs(z_score) return 0.0 async def _generate_anomaly_explanation(self, data_point: Dict[str, Any], feature_contributions: Dict[str, float]) -> str: """이상 설명 생성""" top_features = sorted(feature_contributions.items(), key=lambda x: abs(x[1]), reverse=True)[:2] explanations = [] for feature, contribution in top_features: if contribution > 1.0: if feature == "price": explanations.append("가격이 평상시보다 크게 벗어남") elif feature == "volume": explanations.append("거래량이 평상시보다 크게 증가") elif feature == "volatility": explanations.append("변동성이 평상시보다 크게 증가") elif feature == "sentiment_score": explanations.append("시장 감정이 평상시와 크게 다름") if explanations: return " / ".join(explanations) else: return "복합적인 패턴 이상으로 판단됨" async def _calculate_validation_score(self, training_data: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> float: """검증 점수 계산""" # 간단한 검증: 훈련 데이터의 일부를 이상으로 탐지하는 비율 validation_results = await self.detect_batch_anomalies(training_data[-10:]) anomaly_rate = sum(1 for r in validation_results if r["is_anomaly"]) / len(validation_results) # 적절한 이상 탐지율 (5-15%) if 0.05 <= anomaly_rate <= 0.15: return 0.9 else: return max(0.5, 1.0 - abs(anomaly_rate - 0.1) * 5) async def _analyze_anomaly_trends(self, point_results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """이상 트렌드 분석""" anomaly_scores = [r["anomaly_score"] for r in point_results if r["is_anomaly"]] if not anomaly_scores: return {"trend": "stable", "severity_trend": "none"} # 간단한 트렌드 분석 if len(anomaly_scores) >= 3: recent_avg = sum(anomaly_scores[-3:]) / 3 earlier_avg = sum(anomaly_scores[:3]) / 3 if recent_avg > earlier_avg * 1.2: trend = "increasing" elif recent_avg < earlier_avg * 0.8: trend = "decreasing" else: trend = "stable" else: trend = "insufficient_data" severity_trend = "high" if max(anomaly_scores) > 5.0 else "medium" if max(anomaly_scores) > 2.0 else "low" return { "trend": trend, "severity_trend": severity_trend, "max_score": max(anomaly_scores), "avg_score": sum(anomaly_scores) / len(anomaly_scores) } def _determine_alert_severity(self, anomaly_score: float) -> str: """알림 심각도 결정""" if anomaly_score > 5.0: return "critical" elif anomaly_score > 3.0: return "high" elif anomaly_score > 1.5: return "medium" else: return "low" def _should_trigger_alert(self, severity: str, data_point: Dict[str, Any]) -> bool: """알림 트리거 여부 판단""" if not self.alert_config: return False # 심각도 임계값 확인 threshold_severity = self.alert_config.get("severity_threshold", "medium") severity_levels = {"low": 1, "medium": 2, "high": 3, "critical": 4} if severity_levels.get(severity, 0) < severity_levels.get(threshold_severity, 2): return False # 쿨다운 기간 확인 symbol = data_point.get("symbol", "default") cooldown = self.alert_config.get("cooldown_period", 300) # 5분 if symbol in self.last_alert_time: time_since_last = time.time() - self.last_alert_time[symbol] if time_since_last < cooldown: return False return True

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