---
title: Time Series Analysis
description: Analyzing trends, patterns, and relationships in economic data
icon: 'chart-line'
---
# Time Series Analysis
Learn how to analyze economic trends, identify patterns, and compare time series data using the FRED MCP Server.
## Trend Analysis
### Long-Term Trends
Analyze unemployment over decades:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "UNRATE",
"observation_start": "1980-01-01",
"observation_end": "2024-10-01"
}
```
**Key insights to look for:**
- Cyclical peaks and troughs
- Long-term structural changes
- Recovery patterns after recessions
### Growth Rates
Calculate year-over-year growth:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "GDP",
"observation_start": "2010-Q1",
"units": "pc1" // Percent change from year ago
}
```
<Tabs>
<Tab title="Annualized Growth">
```javascript
{
"series_id": "GDPC1",
"units": "pca" // Percent change at annual rate
}
```
</Tab>
<Tab title="Quarter-over-Quarter">
```javascript
{
"series_id": "GDPC1",
"units": "pch" // Percent change from prior period
}
```
</Tab>
<Tab title="Year-over-Year">
```javascript
{
"series_id": "GDPC1",
"units": "pc1" // Percent change from year ago
}
```
</Tab>
</Tabs>
## Cyclical Analysis
### Business Cycles
Identify recession periods using unemployment:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "UNRATE",
"observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```
Combine with recession indicator:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "USREC", // NBER Recession Indicator
"observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```
<Note>
**USREC** series: Value of 1 indicates recession period, 0 indicates expansion
</Note>
### Leading Indicators
Track predictive indicators:
```javascript
// Leading Economic Index
{
"series_id": "USSLIND",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
// Building Permits (leads housing)
{
"series_id": "PERMIT",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
// Initial Claims (leads employment)
{
"series_id": "ICSA",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
```
## Seasonal Patterns
### Comparing SA vs NSA Data
```javascript
// Seasonally Adjusted
{
"series_id": "UNRATE", // SA version
"observation_start": "2023-01-01"
}
// Not Seasonally Adjusted
{
"series_id": "UNRATENSA", // NSA version
"observation_start": "2023-01-01"
}
```
<CardGroup cols={2}>
<Card title="Seasonally Adjusted" icon="chart-line">
Use for identifying underlying trends and business cycle turning points
</Card>
<Card title="Not Seasonally Adjusted" icon="calendar">
Use for understanding actual seasonal hiring/firing patterns
</Card>
</CardGroup>
### Seasonal Patterns
Retail sales show strong seasonality:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "RSXFSN", // NSA retail sales
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```
Expected patterns:
- **Q4 spike**: Holiday shopping season
- **Q1 dip**: Post-holiday slowdown
- **Summer**: Back-to-school season
## Correlation Analysis
### Related Series Comparison
Compare inflation measures:
```javascript
// CPI
const cpi = {
"series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01",
"units": "pc1"
};
// PCE
const pce = {
"series_id": "PCEPI",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01",
"units": "pc1"
};
```
### Leading-Lagging Relationships
<Steps>
<Step title="Identify Leading Indicator">
```javascript
// Housing starts (leads GDP)
{ "series_id": "HOUST" }
```
</Step>
<Step title="Track Coincident Indicator">
```javascript
// Industrial production
{ "series_id": "INDPRO" }
```
</Step>
<Step title="Monitor Lagging Indicator">
```javascript
// Unemployment (lags recession end)
{ "series_id": "UNRATE" }
```
</Step>
</Steps>
### Interest Rate Relationships
Yield curve analysis:
```javascript
// 10-Year Treasury
const ten_year = {
"series_id": "DGS10",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};
// 2-Year Treasury
const two_year = {
"series_id": "DGS2",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};
// Pre-calculated spread
const spread = {
"series_id": "T10Y2Y", // 10Y - 2Y spread
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};
```
<Warning>
**Inverted Yield Curve** (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions
</Warning>
## Volatility Analysis
### Price Volatility
Measure inflation volatility:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01",
"units": "pch" // Month-to-month changes
}
```
High volatility periods often indicate:
- Economic uncertainty
- Supply shocks
- Policy transitions
### Financial Market Volatility
VIX Index (market volatility):
```javascript
{
"series_id": "VIXCLS",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```
## Structural Breaks
### Identifying Regime Changes
Look for significant structural changes:
```javascript
// Labor force participation
{
"series_id": "CIVPART",
"observation_start": "1980-01-01"
}
```
Notable breaks:
- **2000**: Women's participation peak
- **2008**: Financial crisis impact
- **2020**: Pandemic shock
### Policy Changes
Federal Funds Rate regime shifts:
```javascript
{
"series_id": "DFF",
"observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```
Regimes:
- **Pre-2008**: Normal monetary policy
- **2008-2015**: Zero lower bound
- **2015-2019**: Gradual normalization
- **2020-2022**: Emergency response
- **2022-present**: Aggressive tightening
## Smoothing and Filtering
### Moving Averages
Smooth noisy data using longer periods:
```javascript
// Weekly initial claims (volatile)
{
"series_id": "ICSA",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
// 4-week moving average (smoother)
{
"series_id": "IC4WSA",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```
### Continuous Claims vs Initial Claims
<Tabs>
<Tab title="Initial Claims">
```javascript
// New unemployment insurance claims
{ "series_id": "ICSA" }
```
More volatile, faster signal
</Tab>
<Tab title="Continuing Claims">
```javascript
// Ongoing unemployment insurance
{ "series_id": "CCSA" }
```
Smoother, persistent signal
</Tab>
</Tabs>
## Growth Decomposition
### GDP Components
Analyze which components drive growth:
```javascript
// Total GDP
const gdp = { "series_id": "GDP" };
// Consumption (typically ~68%)
const consumption = { "series_id": "PCEC" };
// Investment (typically ~17%)
const investment = { "series_id": "GPDI" };
// Government (typically ~17%)
const government = { "series_id": "GCE" };
// Net Exports (often negative)
const net_exports = { "series_id": "NETEXP" };
```
### Inflation Decomposition
Core vs headline inflation:
```javascript
// Headline CPI
{
"series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
"units": "pc1"
}
// Core CPI (ex food & energy)
{
"series_id": "CPILFESL",
"units": "pc1"
}
// Food CPI
{
"series_id": "CPIUFDSL",
"units": "pc1"
}
// Energy CPI
{
"series_id": "CPIENGSL",
"units": "pc1"
}
```
## Real vs Nominal
### Inflation Adjustment
Compare nominal and real values:
```javascript
// Nominal Wages
{
"series_id": "CES0500000003", // Avg hourly earnings
"observation_start": "2010-01-01"
}
// Real Wages (inflation-adjusted)
{
"series_id": "CES0500000030", // Real avg hourly earnings
"observation_start": "2010-01-01"
}
```
<Tip>
Real values show actual purchasing power changes, while nominal values include inflation
</Tip>
## Advanced Patterns
### Phillips Curve
Inflation vs unemployment relationship:
```javascript
// Unemployment Rate
const unemployment = {
"series_id": "UNRATE",
"observation_start": "2000-01-01"
};
// Core CPI Inflation
const inflation = {
"series_id": "CPILFESL",
"observation_start": "2000-01-01",
"units": "pc1"
};
```
**Expected relationship:** Higher unemployment → Lower inflation
### Okun's Law
GDP growth vs unemployment changes:
```javascript
// Real GDP Growth
const gdp_growth = {
"series_id": "GDPC1",
"units": "pca"
};
// Unemployment Rate
const unemployment = {
"series_id": "UNRATE"
};
```
**Expected relationship:** 1% GDP growth above trend → ~0.5% unemployment decline
## Forecasting Indicators
### Nowcasting
Current quarter GDP estimates:
```javascript
// GDPNow (Atlanta Fed nowcast)
{
"series_id": "GDPNOW",
"observation_start": "2024-Q3"
}
```
### Survey-Based Forecasts
```javascript
// Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
{
"series_id": "USPHCI",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
// Consumer Expectations
{
"series_id": "UMCSENT1Y",
"observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```
## Practical Analysis Workflows
### Recession Analysis
<Steps>
<Step title="Identify Recession Periods">
Use USREC to mark recessions
</Step>
<Step title="Track Key Indicators">
- Unemployment (rises during recession)
- GDP (declines during recession)
- Retail sales (weakens)
</Step>
<Step title="Analyze Recovery">
- Duration from peak to trough
- Time to pre-recession levels
- Shape of recovery (V, U, W, L)
</Step>
<Step title="Compare Across Recessions">
- 2001 (Tech bubble)
- 2008 (Financial crisis)
- 2020 (Pandemic)
</Step>
</Steps>
### Policy Impact Analysis
Federal Reserve rate changes:
```javascript
// Fed Funds Rate
{
"series_id": "DFF",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
// Mortgage Rates (responds to policy)
{
"series_id": "MORTGAGE30US",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
// Housing Starts (affected by mortgage rates)
{
"series_id": "HOUST",
"observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
```
## Visualization Best Practices
<AccordionGroup>
<Accordion title="Time Period Selection">
- **Short-term**: 1-2 years for recent trends
- **Medium-term**: 5-10 years for cyclical patterns
- **Long-term**: 20+ years for structural changes
</Accordion>
<Accordion title="Frequency Matching">
Align frequencies when comparing:
- Daily: Interest rates, stock prices
- Monthly: Most economic indicators
- Quarterly: GDP and national accounts
</Accordion>
<Accordion title="Scale Considerations">
- Use same units for direct comparison
- Index to common base for relative comparison
- Use dual axes carefully (can be misleading)
</Accordion>
<Accordion title="Transformation Choice">
- **Levels**: Show absolute values
- **Growth rates**: Show momentum
- **Indexed**: Show relative performance
- **Normalized**: Show deviations from average
</Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>
## Next Steps
<CardGroup cols={2}>
<Card
title="Data Transformations"
icon="calculator"
href="/examples/data-transformations"
>
Learn transformation techniques
</Card>
<Card
title="Advanced Queries"
icon="magnifying-glass-chart"
href="/examples/advanced-queries"
>
Complex search patterns
</Card>
<Card
title="Economic Analysis"
icon="chart-mixed"
href="/use-cases/economic-analysis"
>
Comprehensive analysis workflows
</Card>
<Card
title="API Reference"
icon="book"
href="/api-reference/fred-get-series"
>
Series retrieval documentation
</Card>
</CardGroup>
