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SPIKE-0002-ml-forecasting.json•2.35 KiB
{
"id": "MOD-003-FEAT-006-SPIKE-002",
"title": "Investigate machine learning models for deal close probability prediction",
"description": "Explore whether machine learning models can improve forecast accuracy beyond simple stage-based probability. Research what data features are most predictive of deal closure, evaluate ML frameworks, and determine if we have sufficient historical data for training.",
"featureId": "MOD-003-FEAT-006",
"status": "planned",
"questions": [
{
"question": "Do we have sufficient historical deal data (volume and quality) to train a reliable ML model?",
"answered": false,
"answer": ""
},
{
"question": "Which features are most predictive of deal closure (deal size, age, activity frequency, contact engagement, etc.)?",
"answered": false,
"answer": ""
},
{
"question": "What ML approaches are most suitable (logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, neural networks)?",
"answered": false,
"answer": ""
},
{
"question": "How much would ML-based forecasting improve accuracy compared to current stage-based method?",
"answered": false,
"answer": ""
},
{
"question": "What are the infrastructure and maintenance requirements for deploying an ML model in production?",
"answered": false,
"answer": ""
}
],
"timebox": {
"duration": 2,
"unit": "weeks",
"startDate": "2025-03-10T09:00:00Z",
"endDate": "2025-03-24T17:00:00Z"
},
"objectives": [
"Analyze historical deal data to assess data quality and volume (need 1000+ closed deals minimum)",
"Perform feature engineering and correlation analysis to identify predictive features",
"Build prototype models using at least 3 different algorithms",
"Compare model accuracy against baseline stage-based probability method",
"Estimate infrastructure costs and ongoing maintenance effort",
"Provide go/no-go recommendation with detailed justification"
],
"findings": {
"summary": "",
"recommendations": [],
"risks": [],
"nextSteps": []
},
"assignee": "",
"artifacts": [],
"metadata": {
"createdAt": "2025-03-07T14:00:00Z",
"updatedAt": "2025-03-07T14:00:00Z",
"createdBy": "robert.kim",
"tags": [
"deals",
"forecasting",
"machine-learning",
"research"
]
}
}