ThoughtMCP

{
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "domain": "risk-assessment",
  "description": "Patterns for systematic risk assessment including risk identification, mitigation planning, and impact assessment",
  "patterns": [
    {
      "id": "risk-identification",
      "name": "Risk Identification Analysis",
      "description": "Systematic identification and categorization of potential risks across technical, operational, financial, and strategic dimensions",
      "indicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk identification", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "identify risks", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk assessment", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "potential risks", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk analysis", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk register", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk inventory", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "threat assessment", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "vulnerability assessment", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk exposure", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk factors", "weight": 0.75 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "what could go wrong", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "identify potential risks", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "assess the risks", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "find all risks", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "catalog risks", "weight": 0.75 },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\b(identify|assess|analyze).*risk\\b",
          "weight": 0.85,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\brisk.*(identification|assessment|analysis)\\b",
          "weight": 0.85
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk category",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk taxonomy",
          "weight": 0.75,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk landscape",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        }
      ],
      "negativeIndicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk free", "weight": 0.3 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "no risk", "weight": 0.25 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "zero risk", "weight": 0.25 }
      ],
      "hypotheses": [
        {
          "id": "technical-risks",
          "statement": "Technical risks related to {{primarySubject}} may include system failures, integration issues, or technology obsolescence",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Review system architecture for single points of failure",
            "Assess technology stack maturity and support lifecycle",
            "Identify integration dependencies and failure modes",
            "Evaluate scalability and performance limitations",
            "Check for security vulnerabilities and compliance gaps"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Legacy systems with limited support",
            "Complex integrations with high failure probability",
            "Scalability bottlenecks under load",
            "Security vulnerabilities requiring remediation",
            "Technical debt increasing maintenance risk"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["operational-risks", "external-risks"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-4 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.7
        },
        {
          "id": "operational-risks",
          "statement": "Operational risks related to {{primarySubject}} may stem from process gaps, resource constraints, or human factors",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Map critical processes and identify failure points",
            "Assess resource availability and skill gaps",
            "Review operational procedures and compliance",
            "Evaluate vendor and supplier dependencies",
            "Check for single points of knowledge or expertise"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Undocumented critical processes",
            "Key person dependencies without backup",
            "Resource constraints affecting delivery",
            "Vendor lock-in or supplier concentration",
            "Process gaps leading to errors"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["technical-risks", "financial-risks"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-3 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.65
        },
        {
          "id": "financial-risks",
          "statement": "Financial risks related to {{primarySubject}} may include budget overruns, cost escalation, or revenue impact",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Review budget assumptions and contingencies",
            "Assess cost drivers and escalation factors",
            "Evaluate revenue dependencies and market risks",
            "Check for hidden costs or unplanned expenses",
            "Analyze cash flow and funding requirements"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Underestimated costs or missing contingencies",
            "Revenue concentration or customer dependency",
            "Currency or market exposure",
            "Unplanned regulatory or compliance costs",
            "Cash flow timing mismatches"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["operational-risks", "strategic-risks"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.6
        },
        {
          "id": "strategic-risks",
          "statement": "Strategic risks related to {{primarySubject}} may involve market changes, competitive threats, or misalignment with business goals",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Assess alignment with strategic objectives",
            "Evaluate competitive landscape and threats",
            "Review market trends and disruption potential",
            "Check stakeholder alignment and support",
            "Analyze regulatory and political environment"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Misalignment with business strategy",
            "Competitive threats not addressed",
            "Market shifts affecting viability",
            "Stakeholder resistance or lack of buy-in",
            "Regulatory changes impacting approach"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["financial-risks", "external-risks"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-3 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.55
        },
        {
          "id": "external-risks",
          "statement": "External risks related to {{primarySubject}} may arise from regulatory changes, market conditions, or third-party dependencies",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Monitor regulatory and compliance landscape",
            "Assess third-party and vendor risks",
            "Evaluate market and economic conditions",
            "Review geopolitical and environmental factors",
            "Check for reputational risk exposure"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Pending regulatory changes affecting operations",
            "Third-party risks not adequately managed",
            "Economic conditions impacting demand",
            "Geopolitical risks in supply chain",
            "Reputational exposure from associations"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["strategic-risks", "operational-risks"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "recommendations": [
        {
          "id": "conduct-risk-workshop",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Conduct structured risk identification workshop with cross-functional stakeholders for {{primarySubject}}",
          "tools": [
            "Risk workshop template",
            "Brainstorming techniques",
            "Risk categories checklist",
            "SWOT analysis"
          ],
          "expectedOutcome": "Comprehensive list of identified risks across all categories",
          "prerequisites": [
            "Stakeholders identified",
            "Workshop facilitator",
            "Risk categories defined"
          ],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "create-risk-register",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Create and maintain a risk register documenting all identified risks",
          "tools": ["Risk register template", "Risk management software", "Spreadsheet"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Centralized risk inventory with consistent documentation",
          "prerequisites": ["Risks identified", "Risk register template", "Owner assigned"],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "categorize-risks",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Categorize risks by type, source, and affected area for systematic management",
          "tools": ["Risk taxonomy", "Categorization matrix", "Tagging system"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Organized risk inventory enabling targeted analysis",
          "prerequisites": ["Risks documented", "Categorization scheme defined"],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "assign-risk-owners",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Assign risk owners responsible for monitoring and managing each identified risk",
          "tools": ["RACI matrix", "Risk ownership guidelines", "Accountability framework"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Clear accountability for risk management",
          "prerequisites": ["Risks documented", "Stakeholder availability"],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "establish-risk-review",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Establish regular risk review cadence to identify new risks and update existing ones",
          "tools": ["Review meeting template", "Risk dashboard", "Trend analysis"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Continuous risk identification and monitoring process",
          "prerequisites": ["Risk register established", "Review schedule defined"],
          "priority": 7
        }
      ],
      "severity": "high",
      "qualityThreshold": 0.6
    },
    {
      "id": "mitigation-planning",
      "name": "Risk Mitigation Planning",
      "description": "Systematic development of risk response strategies including avoidance, transfer, mitigation, and acceptance approaches",
      "indicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk mitigation", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "mitigation plan", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk response", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk treatment", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "mitigate risks", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "reduce risk", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk control", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "contingency plan", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk avoidance", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk transfer", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk acceptance", "weight": 0.75 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "countermeasures", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "plan to mitigate risks", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "develop risk response", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "address the risks", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "handle identified risks", "weight": 0.75 },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\b(mitigat|reduc|control|address).*risk\\b",
          "weight": 0.85,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\brisk.*(mitigation|response|treatment|control)\\b",
          "weight": 0.85
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk appetite",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk tolerance",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "residual risk",
          "weight": 0.75,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        }
      ],
      "negativeIndicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "ignore risk", "weight": 0.3 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "accept all risks", "weight": 0.25 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "no mitigation needed", "weight": 0.25 }
      ],
      "hypotheses": [
        {
          "id": "avoidance-strategy",
          "statement": "Risk avoidance may be the appropriate strategy for {{primarySubject}} by eliminating the risk source or changing approach",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Assess if the risk can be completely eliminated",
            "Evaluate alternative approaches that avoid the risk",
            "Calculate cost-benefit of avoidance vs other strategies",
            "Check for downstream impacts of avoidance",
            "Verify avoidance doesn't create new risks"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "High-severity risks that can be eliminated",
            "Alternative approaches with lower risk profiles",
            "Acceptable trade-offs for risk elimination",
            "Scope changes that remove risk sources",
            "Design modifications avoiding risky components"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["mitigation-strategy", "transfer-strategy"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.6
        },
        {
          "id": "mitigation-strategy",
          "statement": "Risk mitigation through controls and safeguards may reduce the likelihood or impact of {{primarySubject}}",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Identify controls that reduce risk likelihood",
            "Identify controls that reduce risk impact",
            "Evaluate control effectiveness and cost",
            "Design layered defense approach",
            "Plan for control monitoring and maintenance"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Preventive controls reducing likelihood",
            "Detective controls enabling early response",
            "Corrective controls limiting impact",
            "Cost-effective control combinations",
            "Residual risk within acceptable levels"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["avoidance-strategy", "acceptance-strategy"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-3 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.7
        },
        {
          "id": "transfer-strategy",
          "statement": "Risk transfer through insurance, contracts, or partnerships may be appropriate for {{primarySubject}}",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Identify risks suitable for transfer",
            "Evaluate insurance options and coverage",
            "Review contractual risk allocation options",
            "Assess partnership or outsourcing opportunities",
            "Calculate cost of transfer vs retention"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Insurable risks with available coverage",
            "Contractual mechanisms for risk sharing",
            "Third parties better positioned to manage risk",
            "Cost-effective transfer options",
            "Clear risk ownership after transfer"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["avoidance-strategy", "mitigation-strategy"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.55
        },
        {
          "id": "acceptance-strategy",
          "statement": "Risk acceptance with contingency planning may be appropriate for {{primarySubject}} when other strategies are not cost-effective",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Verify risk is within organizational risk appetite",
            "Document rationale for acceptance decision",
            "Develop contingency plans for risk occurrence",
            "Establish triggers for contingency activation",
            "Allocate contingency reserves if needed"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Low-severity risks within tolerance",
            "Mitigation costs exceeding potential impact",
            "Risks with very low probability",
            "Documented acceptance with contingency plans",
            "Appropriate reserves allocated"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["mitigation-strategy"],
          "estimatedTime": "1 hour",
          "likelihood": 0.5
        },
        {
          "id": "combined-strategy",
          "statement": "A combination of risk response strategies may be needed for {{primarySubject}} to achieve acceptable residual risk",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Evaluate each risk for optimal response strategy",
            "Design integrated risk response approach",
            "Ensure strategies don't conflict or create gaps",
            "Calculate combined effect on residual risk",
            "Plan for strategy coordination and monitoring"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Different strategies optimal for different risks",
            "Layered approach providing defense in depth",
            "Synergies between complementary strategies",
            "Residual risk reduced to acceptable levels",
            "Clear ownership for each strategy component"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": [
            "avoidance-strategy",
            "mitigation-strategy",
            "transfer-strategy",
            "acceptance-strategy"
          ],
          "estimatedTime": "2-4 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.65
        }
      ],
      "recommendations": [
        {
          "id": "develop-response-plan",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Develop comprehensive risk response plan for each identified risk related to {{primarySubject}}",
          "tools": ["Risk response matrix", "Strategy selection criteria", "Cost-benefit analysis"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Documented risk response strategy for each significant risk",
          "prerequisites": [
            "Risks identified and assessed",
            "Risk appetite defined",
            "Stakeholder input"
          ],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "implement-controls",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Implement risk controls and safeguards according to the mitigation plan",
          "tools": ["Control implementation checklist", "Project plan", "Testing procedures"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Operational controls reducing risk exposure",
          "prerequisites": [
            "Response plan approved",
            "Resources allocated",
            "Implementation timeline"
          ],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "establish-contingencies",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Establish contingency plans and reserves for accepted risks",
          "tools": ["Contingency plan template", "Reserve calculation", "Trigger definitions"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Ready-to-execute contingency plans with allocated reserves",
          "prerequisites": ["Accepted risks documented", "Contingency scenarios defined"],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "arrange-risk-transfer",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Arrange risk transfer mechanisms including insurance and contractual provisions",
          "tools": ["Insurance broker", "Contract templates", "Legal review"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Formal risk transfer arrangements in place",
          "prerequisites": [
            "Transfer strategy approved",
            "Budget allocated",
            "Legal review complete"
          ],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "monitor-effectiveness",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Monitor risk response effectiveness and adjust strategies as needed",
          "tools": ["Risk metrics", "Control testing", "Effectiveness reviews", "KRIs"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Validated risk response effectiveness with continuous improvement",
          "prerequisites": ["Controls implemented", "Monitoring metrics defined"],
          "priority": 7
        }
      ],
      "severity": "high",
      "qualityThreshold": 0.6
    },
    {
      "id": "impact-assessment",
      "name": "Risk Impact Assessment",
      "description": "Systematic evaluation of risk consequences including probability estimation, impact quantification, and risk prioritization",
      "indicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "impact assessment", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk impact", "weight": 0.95 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "impact analysis", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "consequence analysis", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk severity", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk probability", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk likelihood", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk scoring", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk matrix", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk prioritization", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk ranking", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "quantify risk", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "risk exposure", "weight": 0.75 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "assess the impact", "weight": 0.9 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "evaluate risk severity", "weight": 0.85 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "determine risk priority", "weight": 0.8 },
        { "type": "fuzzy", "value": "measure risk exposure", "weight": 0.75 },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\b(assess|evaluat|analyz|quantif).*impact\\b",
          "weight": 0.85,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "regex",
          "value": "\\brisk.*(impact|severity|probability|likelihood)\\b",
          "weight": 0.85
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "expected value",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "risk score",
          "weight": 0.75,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        },
        {
          "type": "exact",
          "value": "heat map",
          "weight": 0.7,
          "keyTermCategory": "domainTerms"
        }
      ],
      "negativeIndicators": [
        { "type": "exact", "value": "no impact", "weight": 0.3 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "negligible risk", "weight": 0.25 },
        { "type": "exact", "value": "insignificant", "weight": 0.2 }
      ],
      "hypotheses": [
        {
          "id": "high-probability-impact",
          "statement": "{{primarySubject}} may have high probability of occurrence requiring immediate attention and mitigation",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Review historical data for similar risk occurrences",
            "Assess current conditions and trends",
            "Evaluate leading indicators and warning signs",
            "Consult subject matter experts for probability estimates",
            "Consider multiple scenarios and their likelihoods"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Historical precedent for risk occurrence",
            "Current conditions increasing probability",
            "Leading indicators suggesting imminent risk",
            "Expert consensus on high likelihood",
            "Multiple scenarios with significant probability"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["severe-consequences", "cascading-impacts"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.65
        },
        {
          "id": "severe-consequences",
          "statement": "{{primarySubject}} may have severe consequences across financial, operational, or reputational dimensions",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Quantify potential financial impact",
            "Assess operational disruption severity",
            "Evaluate reputational and stakeholder impact",
            "Consider regulatory and compliance consequences",
            "Estimate recovery time and cost"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Significant financial exposure",
            "Major operational disruption potential",
            "Reputational damage affecting stakeholders",
            "Regulatory penalties or compliance issues",
            "Extended recovery timeline"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["high-probability-impact", "cascading-impacts"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-3 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.7
        },
        {
          "id": "cascading-impacts",
          "statement": "{{primarySubject}} may trigger cascading effects amplifying the overall impact beyond initial consequences",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Map dependencies and interconnections",
            "Identify potential chain reactions",
            "Assess secondary and tertiary impacts",
            "Evaluate systemic risk potential",
            "Consider worst-case scenario propagation"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Dependencies creating amplification effects",
            "Chain reactions across systems or processes",
            "Secondary impacts exceeding primary impact",
            "Systemic risk affecting multiple areas",
            "Worst-case scenarios with severe propagation"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["severe-consequences", "timing-sensitivity"],
          "estimatedTime": "2-3 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.55
        },
        {
          "id": "timing-sensitivity",
          "statement": "The impact of {{primarySubject}} may be highly sensitive to timing, with certain periods having amplified consequences",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Identify critical periods or deadlines",
            "Assess seasonal or cyclical factors",
            "Evaluate dependencies on timing",
            "Consider market or business cycle effects",
            "Map time-sensitive stakeholder impacts"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Critical periods with amplified impact",
            "Seasonal factors affecting severity",
            "Deadline dependencies increasing consequences",
            "Business cycle timing considerations",
            "Time-sensitive stakeholder concerns"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["cascading-impacts", "stakeholder-impacts"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.5
        },
        {
          "id": "stakeholder-impacts",
          "statement": "{{primarySubject}} may have differentiated impacts across stakeholder groups requiring tailored assessment",
          "investigationSteps": [
            "Identify all affected stakeholder groups",
            "Assess impact severity for each group",
            "Evaluate stakeholder sensitivity and tolerance",
            "Consider stakeholder influence and importance",
            "Map stakeholder-specific consequences"
          ],
          "expectedFindings": [
            "Differentiated impacts across stakeholders",
            "High-sensitivity stakeholder groups",
            "Influential stakeholders with low tolerance",
            "Stakeholder-specific consequence patterns",
            "Communication and management requirements"
          ],
          "relatedHypotheses": ["severe-consequences", "timing-sensitivity"],
          "estimatedTime": "1-2 hours",
          "likelihood": 0.6
        }
      ],
      "recommendations": [
        {
          "id": "quantify-impacts",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Quantify risk impacts using consistent scales for probability and consequence for {{primarySubject}}",
          "tools": [
            "Risk matrix",
            "Impact scales",
            "Probability estimation",
            "Monte Carlo simulation"
          ],
          "expectedOutcome": "Quantified risk scores enabling comparison and prioritization",
          "prerequisites": [
            "Risks identified",
            "Impact scales defined",
            "Assessment criteria agreed"
          ],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "create-risk-matrix",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Create risk matrix or heat map visualizing risk priorities",
          "tools": ["Risk matrix template", "Heat map visualization", "Risk dashboard"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Visual representation of risk landscape for decision-making",
          "prerequisites": ["Risks quantified", "Visualization tool available"],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "prioritize-risks",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Prioritize risks based on combined probability and impact scores",
          "tools": ["Prioritization matrix", "Ranking algorithms", "Stakeholder input"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Ranked risk list guiding resource allocation",
          "prerequisites": ["Risks quantified", "Prioritization criteria defined"],
          "priority": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "scenario-analysis",
          "type": "diagnostic",
          "action": "Conduct scenario analysis for high-priority risks to understand range of outcomes",
          "tools": ["Scenario planning", "Sensitivity analysis", "What-if modeling"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Understanding of best-case, worst-case, and most-likely outcomes",
          "prerequisites": ["High-priority risks identified", "Scenario parameters defined"],
          "priority": 8
        },
        {
          "id": "establish-thresholds",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Establish risk thresholds and escalation criteria based on impact assessment",
          "tools": ["Threshold definitions", "Escalation matrix", "Alert criteria"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Clear criteria for risk escalation and response triggers",
          "prerequisites": ["Risk appetite defined", "Impact assessment complete"],
          "priority": 7
        },
        {
          "id": "communicate-assessment",
          "type": "remedial",
          "action": "Communicate risk assessment results to stakeholders with appropriate detail level",
          "tools": ["Risk report template", "Executive summary", "Stakeholder briefing"],
          "expectedOutcome": "Stakeholder awareness and alignment on risk priorities",
          "prerequisites": ["Assessment complete", "Communication plan defined"],
          "priority": 7
        }
      ],
      "severity": "high",
      "qualityThreshold": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "testCases": [
    {
      "id": "test-risk-identification-basic",
      "input": "We need to identify all potential risks for this project",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-risk-identification-detailed",
      "input": "Let's conduct a comprehensive risk assessment to catalog all risk factors",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification"],
      "minConfidence": 0.85
    },
    {
      "id": "test-risk-identification-register",
      "input": "We need to create a risk register documenting all identified risks and their categories",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-risk-identification-threat",
      "input": "What could go wrong with this initiative? We need a threat assessment",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification"],
      "minConfidence": 0.75
    },
    {
      "id": "test-mitigation-basic",
      "input": "We need to develop a risk mitigation plan for the identified risks",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.85
    },
    {
      "id": "test-mitigation-response",
      "input": "How should we respond to these risks? We need risk treatment strategies",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-mitigation-control",
      "input": "We need to implement risk controls and countermeasures to reduce our exposure",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-mitigation-contingency",
      "input": "Let's develop contingency plans for the risks we're accepting",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.75
    },
    {
      "id": "test-impact-basic",
      "input": "We need to assess the impact and probability of each identified risk",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["impact-assessment"],
      "minConfidence": 0.85
    },
    {
      "id": "test-impact-matrix",
      "input": "Let's create a risk matrix to prioritize risks by severity and likelihood",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["impact-assessment"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-impact-quantify",
      "input": "We need to quantify the risk exposure and score each risk for prioritization",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["impact-assessment"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-impact-consequence",
      "input": "What are the potential consequences? We need a consequence analysis",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["impact-assessment"],
      "minConfidence": 0.75
    },
    {
      "id": "test-combined-identification-mitigation",
      "input": "We need to identify risks and develop mitigation strategies for each one",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification", "mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-combined-identification-impact",
      "input": "Let's identify all risks and assess their impact on the project",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification", "impact-assessment"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    },
    {
      "id": "test-combined-impact-mitigation",
      "input": "We need to prioritize risks by impact and develop response plans",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["impact-assessment", "mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.75
    },
    {
      "id": "test-all-patterns",
      "input": "Comprehensive risk assessment needed - identify risks, assess impact, and develop mitigation plans",
      "expectedDomain": "risk-assessment",
      "expectedPatternIds": ["risk-identification", "impact-assessment", "mitigation-planning"],
      "minConfidence": 0.8
    }
  ]
}