/**
* Interfaces for probabilistic reasoning and uncertainty handling
*/
import { Context } from "../types/core.js";
// Core probabilistic reasoning interfaces
export interface ProbabilisticReasoningEngine {
processWithUncertainty(
input: string,
context?: Context
): Promise<ProbabilisticReasoningResult>;
updateBeliefs(
evidence: Evidence,
priorBeliefs: BeliefNetwork
): Promise<BeliefNetwork>;
quantifyUncertainty(reasoning: ReasoningChain): UncertaintyAssessment;
propagateUncertainty(
beliefs: BeliefNetwork,
evidence: Evidence[]
): UncertaintyPropagation;
}
export interface UncertaintyQuantifier {
assessEpistemicUncertainty(knowledge: KnowledgeState): number;
assessAleatoricUncertainty(data: DataPoint[]): number;
combineUncertainties(
epistemic: number,
aleatoric: number
): CombinedUncertainty;
trackConfidenceEvolution(reasoning: ReasoningStep[]): ConfidenceEvolution;
}
// Data structures
export interface ProbabilisticReasoningResult {
conclusion: string;
confidence: number;
uncertainty_assessment: UncertaintyAssessment;
belief_network: BeliefNetwork;
evidence_integration: EvidenceIntegration;
alternative_hypotheses: Hypothesis[];
reasoning_chain: ReasoningChain;
processing_time_ms: number;
}
export interface BeliefNetwork {
nodes: Map<string, BeliefNode>;
edges: Map<string, BeliefEdge>;
prior_probabilities: Map<string, number>;
conditional_probabilities: Map<string, ConditionalProbability>;
evidence_nodes: string[];
}
export interface BeliefNode {
id: string;
name: string;
type: "hypothesis" | "evidence" | "intermediate";
probability: number;
uncertainty: number;
dependencies: string[];
evidence_support: Evidence[];
}
export interface BeliefEdge {
from: string;
to: string;
strength: number;
type: "causal" | "evidential" | "logical";
confidence: number;
}
export interface ConditionalProbability {
given: string[];
target: string;
probability: number;
confidence: number;
}
export interface Evidence {
id: string;
content: string;
type: "observational" | "testimonial" | "statistical" | "logical";
reliability: number;
relevance: number;
timestamp: number;
source: string;
weight: number;
}
export interface UncertaintyAssessment {
epistemic_uncertainty: number; // Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge
aleatoric_uncertainty: number; // Uncertainty due to inherent randomness
combined_uncertainty: number;
confidence_interval: [number, number];
uncertainty_sources: UncertaintySource[];
reliability_assessment: number;
}
export interface UncertaintySource {
type:
| "data_quality"
| "model_limitations"
| "incomplete_information"
| "conflicting_evidence";
description: string;
impact: number;
mitigation_suggestions: string[];
}
export interface CombinedUncertainty {
total_uncertainty: number;
epistemic_component: number;
aleatoric_component: number;
interaction_effects: number;
confidence_bounds: [number, number];
}
export interface ConfidenceEvolution {
initial_confidence: number;
final_confidence: number;
confidence_trajectory: number[];
confidence_changes: ConfidenceChange[];
stability_measure: number;
}
export interface ConfidenceChange {
step: number;
old_confidence: number;
new_confidence: number;
reason: string;
evidence_impact: number;
}
export interface EvidenceIntegration {
total_evidence_count: number;
evidence_quality_score: number;
conflicting_evidence: Evidence[];
supporting_evidence: Evidence[];
evidence_synthesis: string;
reliability_weighted_score: number;
}
export interface Hypothesis {
id: string;
description: string;
probability: number;
evidence_support: Evidence[];
alternative_explanations: string[];
testable_predictions: string[];
confidence: number;
}
export interface ReasoningChain {
steps: ReasoningStep[];
logical_structure: string;
confidence_propagation: number[];
uncertainty_propagation: number[];
branch_points: BranchPoint[];
}
export interface ReasoningStep {
id: string;
type: "premise" | "inference" | "conclusion" | "assumption";
content: string;
confidence: number;
uncertainty: number;
evidence_basis: Evidence[];
logical_form: string;
alternatives: string[];
}
export interface BranchPoint {
step_id: string;
alternatives: Alternative[];
selection_rationale: string;
confidence_impact: number;
}
export interface Alternative {
description: string;
probability: number;
consequences: string[];
evidence_requirements: string[];
}
export interface UncertaintyPropagation {
initial_uncertainty: Map<string, number>;
final_uncertainty: Map<string, number>;
propagation_path: PropagationStep[];
uncertainty_amplification: number;
critical_nodes: string[];
}
export interface PropagationStep {
from_node: string;
to_node: string;
uncertainty_transfer: number;
amplification_factor: number;
method: string;
}
export interface KnowledgeState {
known_facts: string[];
uncertain_beliefs: Map<string, number>;
knowledge_gaps: string[];
confidence_in_knowledge: number;
last_updated: number;
}
export interface DataPoint {
value: unknown;
uncertainty: number;
source: string;
timestamp: number;
reliability: number;
}
// Bayesian updating interfaces
export interface BayesianUpdate {
prior: number;
likelihood: number;
evidence: number;
posterior: number;
bayes_factor: number;
update_strength: number;
}
export interface BayesianNetwork {
variables: Map<string, BayesianVariable>;
dependencies: Map<string, string[]>;
conditional_tables: Map<string, ConditionalProbabilityTable>;
evidence: Map<string, unknown>;
}
export interface BayesianVariable {
name: string;
domain: unknown[];
current_belief: number[];
prior_belief: number[];
evidence_impact: number;
}
export interface ConditionalProbabilityTable {
variable: string;
parents: string[];
probabilities: Map<string, number>;
confidence: number;
}
