bet-mcp

import { oddsApi } from "./context.js"; import { buildMatchSnapshot } from "./matchSnapshot.js"; import { computeFairOddsFromSnapshot } from "./fairOddsEngine.js"; import { ValueDetectionResult, ValuePick } from "../types.js"; const EDGE_THRESHOLD = 0.05; const MIN_ODDS = 1.5; export const detectValue = async (matchId: number): Promise<ValueDetectionResult> => { const snapshot = await buildMatchSnapshot(matchId); const fair = computeFairOddsFromSnapshot(snapshot); const odds = await oddsApi.getMarketOddsForFixture(snapshot.match); const picks: ValuePick[] = odds .map((market) => { if (!market.bookmakers.length) return undefined; const bestBook = market.bookmakers.reduce((best, current) => current.oddsDecimal > best.oddsDecimal ? current : best, ); const fairOdds = fair.fairOdds[market.selection]; const edge = bestBook.oddsDecimal / fairOdds - 1; if (edge < EDGE_THRESHOLD || bestBook.oddsDecimal < MIN_ODDS) return undefined; return { market: market.market, selection: market.selection, bookmaker: bestBook.book, offeredOdds: Number(bestBook.oddsDecimal.toFixed(3)), fairOdds, edge: Number(edge.toFixed(3)), rationale: buildRationale(snapshot.home.form, snapshot.away.form, fair.lambdaHome, fair.lambdaAway, market.selection), } satisfies ValuePick; }) .filter(Boolean) .sort((a, b) => (b!.edge - a!.edge)) .slice(0, 3) as ValuePick[]; return { matchId, picks, fair, odds, }; }; const buildRationale = ( homeForm: string | undefined, awayForm: string | undefined, lambdaHome: number, lambdaAway: number, selection: ValuePick["selection"], ): string => { const lambdaNote = `λ_home=${lambdaHome.toFixed(2)} λ_away=${lambdaAway.toFixed(2)}`; const homeNote = homeForm ? `home form ${homeForm}` : undefined; const awayNote = awayForm ? `away form ${awayForm}` : undefined; const formSnippet = [homeNote, awayNote].filter(Boolean).join(", "); return `${selection} boosted by ${lambdaNote}${formSnippet ? ` (${formSnippet})` : ""}`; };