prediction-market-mcp

import { McpServer } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/server/mcp.js"; import { StdioServerTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/server/stdio.js"; import { z } from "zod"; import { getKalshiEventsWithMarkets, getPolymarketPredictionData, getPredictItMarkets, } from "./utils/utils.js"; import { KalshiMarket } from "./utils/types.js"; const server = new McpServer({ name: "prediction-markets", version: "1.0.0", capabilities: { resources: {}, tools: {}, }, }); server.tool( "get-prediction-markets", "Get prediction market prices from Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi", { keyword: z .string() .max(50) .describe("Keyword for the market you're looking for (e.g. 'trump')"), }, async ({ keyword }) => { const lowerKeyword = keyword.toLowerCase(); const errors: string[] = []; // Try each API separately with error handling let polyMarkets: any[] = []; let predictItMarkets: any[] = []; let kalshiMarkets: any[] = []; try { polyMarkets = await getPolymarketPredictionData(50, keyword); } catch (error) { errors.push(`Polymarket: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error'}`); } try { predictItMarkets = await getPredictItMarkets(); } catch (error) { errors.push(`PredictIt: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error'}`); } try { kalshiMarkets = await getKalshiEventsWithMarkets(keyword); } catch (error) { errors.push(`Kalshi: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error'}`); } const filteredPredictIt = predictItMarkets.filter( (m) => m.name.toLowerCase().includes(lowerKeyword) || m.shortName.toLowerCase().includes(lowerKeyword), ); const filteredKalshi = kalshiMarkets; // If all APIs failed if (errors.length === 3) { return { content: [ { type: "text", text: `Failed to fetch prediction markets from all platforms:\n${errors.join('\n')}\n\nPlease try again later or check your internet connection.`, }, ], }; } // If no markets found but some APIs succeeded if ( polyMarkets.length === 0 && filteredPredictIt.length === 0 && filteredKalshi.length === 0 ) { const errorText = errors.length > 0 ? `⚠️ Some platforms failed: ${errors.join('; ')}\n\n` : ''; return { content: [ { type: "text", text: `${errorText}No prediction markets found for keyword: "${keyword}"`, }, ], }; } const polyText = polyMarkets .map((m: any) => { const oddsList = Object.entries(m.odds) .map(([outcome, prob]: [string, any]) => `${outcome}: ${(prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%`) .join(" | "); return `**Polymarket: ${m.question}**\n${oddsList}`; }) .join("\n\n"); const predictItText = filteredPredictIt .map((m: any) => { const contractOdds = m.contracts .map((c: any) => { const pct = c.lastTradePrice != null ? `${(c.lastTradePrice * 100).toFixed(1)}%` : "n/a"; return `${c.shortName}: ${pct}`; }) .join(" | "); return `**PredictIt: ${m.name}**\n${contractOdds}`; }) .join("\n\n"); const kalshiText = filteredKalshi .map((e) => { if (!e.markets || e.markets.length === 0) { return `**Kalshi: ${e.title}**\n${e.sub_title} (${e.category}) - No active markets`; } const marketTexts = e.markets.map((market: KalshiMarket) => { // Calculate probability from bid/ask midpoint, or use last price const yesBid = parseFloat(market.yes_bid_dollars || "0"); const yesAsk = parseFloat(market.yes_ask_dollars || "0"); const noBid = parseFloat(market.no_bid_dollars || "0"); const noAsk = parseFloat(market.no_ask_dollars || "0"); const lastPrice = parseFloat(market.last_price_dollars || "0"); let yesProb = "n/a"; let noProb = "n/a"; // Calculate Yes probability if (yesBid > 0 || yesAsk > 0) { const yesMid = yesBid > 0 && yesAsk > 0 ? (yesBid + yesAsk) / 2 : lastPrice > 0 ? lastPrice : yesBid > 0 ? yesBid : yesAsk; yesProb = `${(yesMid * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; } else if (lastPrice > 0) { yesProb = `${(lastPrice * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; } // Calculate No probability (complement of Yes for binary markets) if (noBid > 0 || noAsk > 0) { const noMid = noBid > 0 && noAsk > 0 ? (noBid + noAsk) / 2 : (1 - lastPrice) > 0 && lastPrice > 0 ? (1 - lastPrice) : noBid > 0 ? noBid : noAsk; noProb = `${(noMid * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; } else if (lastPrice > 0) { noProb = `${((1 - lastPrice) * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; } const statusText = market.status && market.status !== "open" && market.status !== "active" && market.status !== "live" ? ` [${market.status}]` : ""; const marketSubtitle = market.subtitle || market.yes_sub_title || ""; const subtitleText = marketSubtitle ? ` (${marketSubtitle})` : ""; return ` ${market.yes_sub_title || "Yes"}: ${yesProb} | ${market.no_sub_title || "No"}: ${noProb}${subtitleText}${statusText}`; }); const eventSubtitle = e.sub_title ? `\n${e.sub_title}` : ""; return `**Kalshi: ${e.title}**${eventSubtitle} (${e.category})\n${marketTexts.join("\n")}`; }) .join("\n\n"); const text = [polyText, predictItText, kalshiText] .filter(Boolean) .join("\n\n"); const errorText = errors.length > 0 ? `⚠️ Some platforms failed: ${errors.join('; ')}\n\n` : ''; return { content: [ { type: "text", text: errorText + text, }, ], }; }, ); async function main() { const transport = new StdioServerTransport(); await server.connect(transport); console.error("Prediction market MCP Server running on stdio"); } main().catch((error) => { console.error("Fatal error in main():", error); process.exit(1); });