create_prediction_agent_and_get_predictions

Create a BinaryPredictor agent to estimate the probability of a binary event using expert consensus, individual estimates, and confidence intervals. Provide session ID, input data model, and expert count for predictions without historical data.

Instructions

This tool creates a BinaryPredictor agent with your session and input data model and then provides prediction input data to the agent and returns the consensus a prediction from a panel of experts along with their individual estimates and text explanations. The agent also returns the alpha and beta parameters for a Beta distribution that allows you to estimate the confidence interval of its consensus probability estimate.

When to use this tool:

Use this tool to request a probability estimate from Chronulus in situation when there is a binary outcome
This tool is specifically made to estimate the probability of an event occurring and not occurring and does not

require historical data

How to use this tool:

First, make sure you have a session_id for the prediction use case.
Next, think about the features / characteristics most suitable for producing the requested prediction and then

create an input_data_model that corresponds to the input_data you will provide for the thing or event being predicted.

Remember to pass all relevant information to Chronulus including text and images provided by the user.
If a user gives you files about a thing you are forecasting or predicting, you should pass these as inputs to the

agent using one of the following types:

- ImageFromFile
- List[ImageFromFile]
- TextFromFile
- List[TextFromFile]
- PdfFromFile
- List[PdfFromFile]

If you have a large amount of text (over 500 words) to pass to the agent, you should use the Text or List[Text] field types
Finally, provide the number of experts to consult. The minimum and default number is 2, but users may request up to 30

30 opinions in situations where reproducibility and risk sensitively is of the utmost importance. In most cases, 2 to 5 experts is sufficient.

Input Schema

Name	Required	Description
`input_data`	Yes	The forecast inputs that you will pass to the chronulus agent to make the prediction. The keys of the dict should correspond to the InputField name you provided in input_fields.
`input_data_model`	Yes	Metadata on the fields you will include in the input_data.
`num_experts`	Yes	The number of experts to consult when forming consensus
`session_id`	Yes	The session_id for the forecasting or prediction use case

Input Schema (JSON Schema)

{
  "$defs": {
    "InputField": {
      "properties": {
        "description": {
          "description": "A description of the value you will pass in the field.",
          "title": "Description",
          "type": "string"
        },
        "name": {
          "description": "Field name. Should be a valid python variable name.",
          "title": "Name",
          "type": "string"
        },
        "type": {
          "default": "str",
          "description": "The type of the field. \n        ImageFromFile takes a single named-argument, 'file_path' as input which should be absolute path to the image to be included. So you should provide this input as json, eg. {'file_path': '/path/to/image'}.\n        ",
          "enum": [
            "str",
            "Text",
            "List[Text]",
            "TextFromFile",
            "List[TextFromFile]",
            "PdfFromFile",
            "List[PdfFromFile]",
            "ImageFromFile",
            "List[ImageFromFile]"
          ],
          "title": "Type",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "name",
        "description"
      ],
      "title": "InputField",
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "properties": {
    "input_data": {
      "additionalProperties": {
        "anyOf": [
          {
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "type": "object"
          },
          {
            "items": {
              "type": "object"
            },
            "type": "array"
          }
        ]
      },
      "description": "The forecast inputs that you will pass to the chronulus agent to make the prediction. The keys of the dict should correspond to the InputField name you provided in input_fields.",
      "title": "Input Data",
      "type": "object"
    },
    "input_data_model": {
      "description": "Metadata on the fields you will include in the input_data.",
      "items": {
        "$ref": "#/$defs/InputField"
      },
      "title": "Input Data Model",
      "type": "array"
    },
    "num_experts": {
      "description": "The number of experts to consult when forming consensus",
      "title": "Num Experts",
      "type": "integer"
    },
    "session_id": {
      "description": "The session_id for the forecasting or prediction use case",
      "title": "Session Id",
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "session_id",
    "input_data_model",
    "input_data",
    "num_experts"
  ],
  "title": "create_prediction_agent_and_get_predictionsArguments",
  "type": "object"
}

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