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program_outcome_prior

Read-only

At the START of an engagement on a bug-bounty PROGRAM, get a grounded prior over what bug classes have historically LANDED there — to decide what to look at first and what to skip.

Built from real HackerOne disclosed reports: the class distribution for this program, each with
LIFT over the global base-rate, sample size, and cited example reports; plus `lands_rarely` — the
classes that land broadly across programs but almost never here (where NOT to spend the first hour).

DESCRIPTIVE, not predictive: it reports what *landed*, never claims what you *will* find. It's a
disclosure-selected sample, HackerOne-only (~379 programs with public disclosures), models bug-class
not payout, and withholds a prior when the program has too few reports (an anecdote isn't a
distribution). Pass a program handle or name, e.g. "gitlab", "shopify". Complements
find_attack_approaches (mechanism transfer) and hunt_plan (CVE dig-order) — this is the minute-zero
"where to start" prior an agent has no tacit target knowledge to form on its own.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
programYes

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations only declare readOnlyHint and openWorldHint=false; the description adds substantial context beyond that: data provenance (HackerOne disclosed reports, ~379 programs), selection bias (disclosure-selected sample), HackerOne-only scope, that it models bug-class rather than payout, and that it withholds a prior when sample size is too small. That is exactly the behavioral disclosure annotations cannot carry.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Purpose is front-loaded in the first sentence, and the remaining sentences each add a distinct fact (data source, limitations, parameter example, sibling routing). Slightly overlengthy with heavy caps/emphasis and the 'DESCRIPTIVE, not predictive' point partially restated, costing it a point.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, so the description must describe the return shape — and it does precisely: class distribution with lift over global base-rate, sample size, cited example reports, plus the `lands_rarely` bucket. Combined with scope limits and parameter guidance, an agent has everything needed to invoke and interpret it.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 0% with a single required `program` param, so the description must compensate — and it does, stating 'a program handle or name' with concrete examples ('gitlab', 'shopify'). It stops short of format rules (case sensitivity, URL vs handle), so not a full 5.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource: retrieve a grounded prior over historically-landed bug classes for a named bounty program. It explicitly distinguishes itself from siblings by naming find_attack_approaches (mechanism transfer) and hunt_plan (CVE dig-order), so an agent can route without opening any schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives an explicit trigger ('At the START of an engagement'), an explicit goal ('what to look at first and what to skip'), and names the closest alternatives with the axis on which they differ. It also flags the negative case implicitly via `lands_rarely` ('where NOT to spend the first hour').

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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