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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly/openWorld/idempotent, and the description goes well beyond them by revealing that matching is keyword/token-overlap based (pairing_unverified), that gross spreads do not model Kalshi fees, and what compatibility_codes mean. It also clearly defines edge cases like temporal_alignment_unknown and skipped_unclassified. This gives an agent realistic expectations about false positives and non-tradeable output.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but front-loaded: the first sentence states the core purpose, then modes, then response safety fields. Some caveats repeat, such as temporal alignment warnings appearing in several forms, so it is not maximally tight. However, the density is largely justified by the absence of an output schema and the number of warning codes.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema and a complex comparison tool, the description covers the input modes, response shape, matching limitations, skipped-class counters, fee treatment, and examples of using the shortcuts. An agent has enough information to invoke the tool and interpret its outputs without guessing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is complete, so the schema already documents each parameter. The description adds mode-level semantics: topic selects a pre-mapped shortcut, while kalshi_event_ticker and polymarket_event_slug override the mapped side, and both modes run the identical matcher. That relationship information is useful, though not deeply detailed beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence gives a specific verb and resource: it computes a cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It clearly announces two operating modes and lists the pre-mapped topics. However, it does not explicitly distinguish itself from sibling tools such as polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, relying instead on the raw scope of the cross-venue comparison.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear context on when to use the tool: for paired Kalshi/Polymarket events with equivalent bet shapes, using either a pre-mapped topic or an explicit ticker/slug pairing. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility_warning and that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable. It does not explicitly name which sibling tools to use instead, so it falls short of the 5 standard.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation1/5

The tool set is severely mismatched: only 3 of 34 tools (get_pathway, list_pathways, search_pathways) relate to WikiPathways while the rest form overlapping Pipeworx/Polymarket families (ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_beta vs ask_pipeworx_grounded; multiple polymarket_* tools) with unclear boundaries and overlapping purposes.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are highly inconsistent: product-specific names (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending), generic memory verbs (remember, recall, forget), and mixed snake_case patterns with no unifying verb_noun structure. The names do not reflect the WikiPathways domain at all.

Tool Count1/5

34 tools is far too many for a WikiPathways server, which only needs a handful of pathway-related operations. Nearly all tools belong to unrelated domains (SEC, FDA, Polymarket, npm, etc.), making the set feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness1/5

For the stated WikiPathways purpose, only get, list, and search are present—no create, update, or delete operations—leaving obvious lifecycle gaps. The extensive non-WikiPathways tools do not contribute to the server's apparent domain coverage and create dead ends for agents expecting pathway management.