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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate readOnly, idempotent, openWorld, non-destructive. The description goes far beyond by detailing resolution logic, classifier fan-outs, response shapes, edge-case handling (low-confidence, closed markets, wide spreads), and cancellation-rule parsing. It fully discloses behavioral traits like 'low-confidence resolutions short-circuit' and 'closed/dead markets...return status:"market_closed_or_inactive". No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but overly long. It front-loads the purpose but then dives into extensive lists (classifiers, fan-out examples, response shapes, resolver contract) that could be summarized or structured more concisely. While it uses section headers (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, etc.), the length may overwhelm an AI agent. Many sentences are necessary given the tool's complexity, but some redundancy and excessive detail reduce conciseness.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description is exceptionally complete, covering all critical aspects: input types, resolution confidence, market states (active, closed, low-confidence), liquidity warnings, cancellation-rule risk, parent-event extraction, news fallback handling, and output structure. Without an output schema, the description fully informs the agent of what to expect and how to interpret results. No gaps remain.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds examples for the 'market' parameter and some context for 'depth' and 'include_raw', but these are already explained in the schema. The extra detail about fan-outs and classifiers is useful for understanding the tool's behavior but does not add new meaning to the parameters themselves beyond what the schema provides.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies inputs (slug, URL, question text) and outputs (evidence packet, market-vs-model comparison), making it distinct from sibling tools like 'polymarket_edges' or 'ask_pipeworx'. The verb 'Research' combined with specific resource 'Polymarket bet' and the detailed fan-out examples leaves no ambiguity.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit usage scenarios: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It is clear when to use the tool, but it does not explicitly state when not to use it or mention alternatives to the tool. This prevents a score of 5, but the provided context is strong enough for a 4.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation1/5

The tool set is severely mismatched: only 3 of 34 tools (get_pathway, list_pathways, search_pathways) relate to WikiPathways while the rest form overlapping Pipeworx/Polymarket families (ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_beta vs ask_pipeworx_grounded; multiple polymarket_* tools) with unclear boundaries and overlapping purposes.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are highly inconsistent: product-specific names (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending), generic memory verbs (remember, recall, forget), and mixed snake_case patterns with no unifying verb_noun structure. The names do not reflect the WikiPathways domain at all.

Tool Count1/5

34 tools is far too many for a WikiPathways server, which only needs a handful of pathway-related operations. Nearly all tools belong to unrelated domains (SEC, FDA, Polymarket, npm, etc.), making the set feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness1/5

For the stated WikiPathways purpose, only get, list, and search are present—no create, update, or delete operations—leaving obvious lifecycle gaps. The extensive non-WikiPathways tools do not contribute to the server's apparent domain coverage and create dead ends for agents expecting pathway management.

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