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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations confirm read-only, idempotent, non-destructive. Description adds behavioral details: Jaccard similarity threshold ≥0.30, partition filter dropping placeholder slugs, fill check against live CLOB depth with explicit trade advice.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured: overview, mode explanations, additional features, response format, fill check. Every sentence adds value, though some details (e.g., Jaccard threshold) could be slightly condensed.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with multiple modes and internal logic, the description covers all key aspects: mode behavior, semantic filtering, partition checks, fill check, and response structure. It references a sibling tool for custom sizing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters are described in the schema; the description adds extensive context: what event and topic do, accepted formats (URLs), and internal logic (walks child markets, searches related events).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It explains three modes (no args, event, topic) and distinguishes from sibling tools focused on edges or fill risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit when-to-use guidance: no args for trending scan, event for a specific market (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. It explains trade-offs and even when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical today), ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all route factual questions through similar pipelines. The polymarket_* cluster also blurs together, with arbitrage, edges, fill_risk, kalshi_spread, and bet_research all analyzing prediction-market mispricings from different angles.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use consistent snake_case, but the verb/noun pattern is mixed: some are verb-first (compare_entities, generate_llms_txt, validate_claim), others noun-first (polymarket_edges, entity_profile, ai_visibility_check), and some are bare product names (ask_pipeworx, pipeworx_trending). Readable overall, but no single predictable convention.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is far too many for a coherent server, especially since the server is named 'Sgd' but only 3 tools relate to yeast genetics. The remaining 31 tools span data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, npm scanning, and llms.txt generation—an unfocused grab bag that should be split into multiple servers.

Completeness2/5

As an SGD yeast-genome server, the surface is thin: search, get_gene, and get_gene_go cover basic lookup but miss sequences, interactions, strains, homologs, and other standard SGD data. As a general data utility, the collection is broad but incoherent, with several one-off tools (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) that have no connection to the rest.

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