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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the annotations' readOnly/idempotent hints, the description discloses many non-obvious behaviors: pairing_unverified is always set, unknown metric/subtype legs are never paired, temporal_alignment null means 'could not be computed,' and spreads are gross because Kalshi fees are not modeled. There is no contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the core purpose and logically progresses from modes to response shape to safety codes. It is dense and repeats a few phrases, but for the tool's complexity it is close to appropriately sized; tighter formatting would improve scannability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description compensates thoroughly by specifying the response shape, compatibility code meanings, skipped-leg behavior, alignment semantics, and the fees_note caveat. It covers enough edge cases that an agent can call the tool and interpret its results safely.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds genuine value by explaining that topic auto-fetches matching events on both venues while explicit params create a custom pairing. It also clarifies that both modes run the same token-overlap matcher, which is not obvious from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence, 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question,' states exactly what the tool computes and differentiates it from sibling venue tools. The two-mode explanation (topic shortcuts vs explicit ticker/slug) further clarifies both the purpose and operational scope.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear context for when to use the tool: 'when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal' and warns that 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' It explains how to choose between topic and explicit modes, but does not explicitly compare against sibling tools or state when not to use it.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-duplicates (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded), and there are overlapping clusters among the polymarket_* tools, research tools (deep_research, entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes), and AI-visibility tools (ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence). The detailed descriptions help, but an agent selecting among these could easily pick the wrong one.

Naming Consistency2/5

Snake_case is used consistently, but the naming pattern is otherwise mixed: some tools are verb_noun (validate_claim, suggest_questions), some are bare nouns (entity_profile, polymarket_edges), some are verbs without objects (remember, forget, ask_pipeworx), and only the five QuickBooks tools share a qb_ prefix. This creates multiple naming ecosystems with no unified convention.

Tool Count2/5

At 36 tools, this is well above the 25+ threshold for 'too many'. More importantly, the server is named Quickbooks but only 5 tools are accounting-related; the other 31 are unrelated Pipeworx data, prediction-market, memory, and meta tools, making the count both excessive and off-purpose.

Completeness2/5

For the QuickBooks domain named by the server, the surface is read-only: get customer, get invoice, list accounts, list invoices, and generic query. There are no create, update, delete, payment, bill, deposit, or report operations, which is a significant gap. For the broader Pipeworx data domain it is fairly complete, but that domain is not what the server name promises.