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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false. The description adds significant context: scanning scope (top ~200 markets), partition checks (threshold >3pp), similarity filter (Jaccard ≥0.30), placeholder filter, fill check against live CLOB depth, and reference to another tool for custom sizing. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the purpose and mode overview. It is detailed but not overly verbose. Some sentences (e.g., the fill check details) could be condensed, but the structure is logical and easy to follow.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description explains the response structure (opportunities[], gap_pp, suggested_trade, etc.) and covers all edge cases (low similarity, placeholder filters, fill check). It also references another tool for custom sizing, making it self-contained for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100% (both event and topic described). The description adds meaning beyond schema: event accepts slug or full URL, topic is a seed question, and explains when to use each mode with concrete examples.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It uses a specific verb and resource, distinguishing it from siblings like polymarket_edges (edge detection) and polymarket_fill_risk (fill risk analysis).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly provides when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass `event` for... or `topic` for...' Recommends event mode for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning, and warns against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. Clear alternatives and exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have clearly described distinct purposes, but several overlap: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, and ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, and suggest_questions all occupy neighboring query/discovery territory. The Polymarket and memory tool families, by contrast, are well differentiated.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and readable, but the set mixes verb-first names (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, resolve_entity, validate_claim) with noun-phrase names (entity_profile, bet_research, recent_alerts, polymarket_arbitrage) and brand prefixes (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*). There is no consistent verb_noun pattern across the toolkit.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well beyond the heavy range, and the count is especially inappropriate because the server is named Kegg but only find, get_entry, and list_database relate to KEGG bioinformatics. The remaining 31 tools span unrelated domains (generic data research, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, npm scanning), making the scope feel like several products merged into one.

Completeness2/5

As a KEGG server, the surface is severely thin: three read-only tools with no pathway mapping, sequence search, or cross-reference utilities. The Pipeworx research and Polymarket betting subsystems are more complete, but their presence under a Kegg server makes the overall surface incoherent rather than complete.