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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already establish read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior, and the description adds substantial behavioral context beyond those: unclassified legs are never paired, temporal_alignment null does not mean aligned, compatibility codes are enumerated, fees are gross because Kalshi fees are not modeled, and skipped comparison counters are exposed. This is exactly the kind of non-obvious behavior an agent needs to know before trusting the output.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is organized with clear labels like TWO MODES, RESPONSE, and SAFETY FIELDS, and the core purpose is front-loaded. Most sentences carry needed information given the absence of an output schema, though there is some repetition around identical matcher behavior and mode symmetry that keeps it from being maximally tight.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining return values, and it does so thoroughly: raw probabilities, top_spreads_pp sign convention, per-entry flags, temporal_alignment null semantics, skipped_* counters, fees_note, and compatibility codes are all covered. An agent has enough information to call the tool and interpret its results correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is already strong. The description adds valuable interaction semantics beyond the schema: the explicit ticker and slug override their topic-mapped side, both modes run the same matcher, and the topic list is spelled out with concrete shortcut names. This meaningfully clarifies how the parameters combine.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific resource and function: it reports the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, and goes on to specify two input modes and the response shape. However, it never explicitly contrasts itself with sibling tools such as polymarket_arbitrage, so it stops short of full sibling differentiation.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The two modes are clearly explained: topic shortcuts auto-fetch matching events, while explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug are for custom pairings, and the description notes that both modes run the identical matcher. It also warns that pre-mapped topics are not automatically tradeable and that safety fields should be read even when pairs are returned, though it does not mention when to prefer a sibling tool for arbitrage.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have strong, detailed descriptions with explicit usage guidance, but a few clusters are genuinely ambiguous: ask_pipeworx_beta is currently an exact duplicate of ask_pipeworx, and the Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker) overlap heavily in purpose. The descriptions help differentiate them, but an agent could still easily select the wrong variant.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names are snake_case and most follow an imperative verb-first pattern such as resolve_entity, subscribe, or validate_claim. A few noun-style names like entity_profile, bet_research, and interaction_count deviate, but the consistent underscore style and clear prefixes like polymarket_ and pipeworx_ keep the set predictable.

Tool Count2/5

At 33 top-level tools, the surface is heavy, and several tools are near-duplicates or narrow variants of the same core capability. The broad scope explains some of the count, but the agent-facing API would be cleaner with fewer, more consolidated entry points.

Completeness5/5

The set provides strong lifecycle coverage for its main workflows: querying and grounding, deep research, entity resolution, company profiling, comparisons, Polymarket edge analysis with fill-risk checks, memory storage, and subscription management. There are no obvious dead ends that would prevent an agent from completing a typical task.