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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description deeply details behavioral traits beyond annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint). It explains trending scan behavior, partition checks, fill checks against live CLOB depth, semantic anchor constraints (Jaccard similarity), and partition filtering. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive and front-loaded with the main purpose, but it is quite lengthy due to detailed explanations of modes, filters, and fill checks. Every sentence provides value, but could be slightly more streamlined without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure: opportunities array with fields like gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, plus fill check details. Covers edge cases like low similarity and placeholder filters. Complete for a complex arbitrage tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant meaning beyond the schema: explains that 'event' mode uses Polymarket event slugs and walks child markets, while 'topic' mode uses seed questions for cross-event scanning. Provides examples of values and behavior differences.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states that the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_edge_tracker by specifying its arbitrage focus and unique techniques.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly explains when to use each mode: call with no args for trending scan, 'event' for a specific market, 'topic' for cross-event scanning. Provides guidance on when not to trade (fill check showing realizable edge ≤ 0). Also notes that cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-identical routers (beta is currently exactly the same as stable), and the Polymarket tools (polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, bet_research) all scan or price prediction-market opportunities with fuzzy boundaries. Other clusters like memory and subscriptions are clear, but enough overlap remains that an agent can easily misroute a query.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are readable snake_case and many follow a verb_noun shape (list_art_crimes, resolve_entity, validate_claim), but the set also contains noun-phrase names (entity_profile, recent_alerts, pipeworx_feedback, deep_research) and brand-prefixed composites (polymarket_kalshi_spread, ask_pipeworx_beta). This is mixed but still scannable; there is no outright convention chaos.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools exceeds the 25+ threshold and is bloated for a server whose name promises FBI art crimes—only two tools relate to that name. Even treated as a Pipeworx platform, the sprawl makes the tool surface harder to navigate than necessary.

Completeness2/5

For the nominal art-crime domain, only list_art_crimes and get_art_crime exist, with no category search, statistics, or art-crime alerting, so an agent expecting art-crime workflows hits dead ends. The unrelated Pipeworx functionality is broadly covered, but that does not make the set complete for its stated server purpose.