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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as readOnly, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description adds valuable behavioral context: default scan of top 200 markets, semantic anchor (0.30 Jaccard similarity), partition filter (placeholder slugs), and fill check for book depth. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but somewhat verbose, with multiple sentences covering details that could be streamlined. However, it is well-structured, front-loading the purpose and then explaining modes in order.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description thoroughly explains return structure (opportunities with fields, partition_check with sum_yes_prices, etc.) and covers edge cases like fill check and placeholder filtering. Refers to companion tool for custom sizing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema descriptions for both parameters exist (100% coverage). The description goes further by explaining behavior for each parameter: event mode walks child markets and performs checks, topic mode searches across events. Adds examples and clarifies expected input types.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description starts with a clear verb-resource pair ('Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks') and distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic). It clearly differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance on when to use each invocation mode: no args for trending scan, event for single-market analysis (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. Explains cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses, but lacks explicit when-not or alternative tool references.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy nearly identical roles: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are described as functionally identical right now, ask_pipeworx_grounded and deep_research are overlapping query modes, and ai_visibility_check / scan_competitor_ai_presence / discover_tools / suggest_questions all blur into discovery or visibility tasks. The two actual BioStudies tools are clear, but they are buried in a server dominated by Pipeworx meta-tools.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tool names use snake_case, and many follow a verb_noun shape such as search_studies, get_study, and discover_tools. However, the convention is inconsistent across the set: noun-first names like entity_profile and polymarket_edges, brand-prefixed names like pipeworx_feedback, and verb-first product names like ask_pipeworx all coexist, making the pattern harder to predict.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is well into the too-many range, and the count is especially inappropriate for a server named Biostudies since only search_studies and get_study actually belong to that domain. The rest form a sprawling general-purpose data-research platform that appears to have been merged into one server without a clear scope.

Completeness3/5

For the BioStudies-specific surface, search_studies and get_study provide reasonable read-only coverage for the EBI archive. But as the broader research platform the other 31 tools imply, the set is hard to evaluate for completeness because most actual data access is delegated to Pipeworx's hidden 5,718 tools rather than exposed directly, leaving notable gaps in transparency and direct source-level control.