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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even though annotations already declare readOnlyHint/openWorldHint/idempotentHint, the description adds an exceptionally rich behavior picture: safety fields can be non-empty even with matched_pairs>0, compatibility_codes semantics, temporal alignment specifics, a standing fee disclosure stating spreads are gross, and exact handling of unclassified legs. This far exceeds what annotations provide and helps the agent interpret results correctly.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it earns its length by covering many non-obvious edge cases that cannot be inferred from schema or annotations. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and uses clear mode/response/safety markers. It could be tighter (some repeated references to the same matcher and warnings), which keeps it at a 4 rather than a 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description bears the full burden of explaining return semantics — and it does: top_spreads_pp values are Kalshi minus Polymarket, spread.skipped_unclassified and low_confidence_pairs exist, temporal_alignment can be null, and fees are gross rather than net. For a complex comparison tool this is a complete invitation to call it correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and explains the topic values, ticker, and slug, so the baseline is 3. The description adds the mode relationship — topic alone OR the explicit pair, with both modes running the same matcher and 'overrides' behavior — which meaningfully helps an agent choose/combine parameters correctly.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The purpose is unmistakable — it computes a cross-venue probability spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question — and it distinguishes two modes. It does not use an explicit action verb like 'compute' or 'get' in the opening sentence, and it does not contrast itself with sibling tools such as polymarket_arbitrage, but the resource and relationship are specific enough for an agent to know when to call it.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives concrete usage guidance: use topic for 10 pre-mapped shortcuts, or provide kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairs, and warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility_warning and are not necessarily tradeable. It does not name alternative tools or explicitly say when not to use this versus polymarket_arbitrage, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have unclear boundaries: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now), and ask_pipeworx_grounded are three variants of the same router, while six polymarket_* tools plus bet_research all target prediction-market edge discovery. ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence further overlap. Only a minority of the 33 tools have clearly distinct purposes.

Naming Consistency3/5

snake_case is used throughout, and the polymarket_/pipeworx_ prefixes are internally consistent, but the naming convention mixes verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, search_samples, resolve_entity, validate_claim) with noun-first names (entity_profile, recent_changes, bet_research) and ad-hoc names like discover_tools or generate_llms_txt. Readable, but no single predictable pattern.

Tool Count1/5

33 tools for a server named 'Biosamples' is an extreme scope mismatch: only 2 of 33 tools (get_sample, search_samples) relate to biological samples, with the remaining 31 forming an unrelated kitchen sink of Pipeworx data routing, Polymarket betting, npm dependency checks, AI visibility audits, memory storage, and subscription management. The count is far beyond anything the stated purpose justifies.

Completeness2/5

For the actual Biosamples domain, search + get covers read-only access but no submission, annotation, or batch workflows, and the server's stated purpose is drowned out by unrelated domains that are only partially covered. The surface is simultaneously bloated with 31 irrelevant tools and thin on the one domain the server name promises, making coherent lifecycle coverage impossible to assess.