Ai Model Experiments

Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage and Polymarket's own taker fee."

Previous value: -"Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model."New value: +"Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3), for bid/ask + thin depth cost that a last-trade price does not show. Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing, ON TOP OF Polymarket's own taker fee — which is NOT zero (rate 0.04-0.07 depending on category, read off each market's own published fee schedule; see fees_pp_applied on every row and fees.ts for the full schedule). Bump slippage for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model — the fee still applies regardless."

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market": "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"
-  },
-  {
-    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-kristi-noem-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kristi-noem-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination"
+  }
+]

Previous value: -"Polymarket slug (\"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\"), full URL (\"https://polymarket.com/event/...\"), or question text (\"Will Bitcoin hit $150k?\"). Dated slugs stop resolving once they settle — Polymarket de-indexes resolved markets — so prefer an undated one."New value: +"Polymarket slug (\"will-kristi-noem-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination\"), full URL (\"https://polymarket.com/event/...\"), or question text (\"Will Bitcoin hit $150k?\"). Dated slugs stop resolving once they settle — Polymarket de-indexes resolved markets — so prefer an undated one."

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"
+  }
+]

Previous value: -"Polymarket slug (\"will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026\"), full URL (\"https://polymarket.com/event/...\"), or question text (\"Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?\")"New value: +"Polymarket slug (\"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\"), full URL (\"https://polymarket.com/event/...\"), or question text (\"Will Bitcoin hit $150k?\"). Dated slugs stop resolving once they settle — Polymarket de-indexes resolved markets — so prefer an undated one."

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "topic": "fed"
-  },
-  {
-    "topic": "btc"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "topic": "fed"
+  },
+  {
+    "topic": "btc"
+  },
+  {
+    "topic": "bitcoin"
+  },
+  {
+    "topic": "fed rate decision"
+  }
+]

Previous value: -"Pre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president"New value: +"Subject to compare. Canonical keys: fed | btc | eth | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president — but aliases and keywords resolve too (\"bitcoin\", \"fed rate decision\", \"ethereum\", \"inflation\", \"s&p 500\", \"us recession\", \"next pope\", \"2028 election\"). Check resolution.topic_matched_by in the response: \"exact\"/\"alias\" is a curated pairing, \"phrase\"/\"token\" is a keyword guess."