Quiver Risk Brain

Options-implied expected move around a scheduled event (FOMC/CPI/earnings/etc.). Given spot, ATM implied vol, and days-to-event, returns the 1σ move, the straddle-implied expected ABSOLUTE move (risk-neutral E|ΔS|), and the probability of exceeding move thresholds. Given the vol term structure across the event (ATM IV of the expiry before vs after), it ISOLATES the event's own priced-in move (the Wright event-day technique). Self-checked: the straddle equals a numerical integral of |S_T−S₀|. This is the magnitude that macro calendars (which give only date + impact label) leave out.

Deterministic execution-quality / fair-fill verification. Given a completed swap (amountIn, amountOutRealized) plus either the pre-trade pool reserves+fee (constant-product) or a fair reference price, returns how many basis points the fill lost to ADVERSE execution (sandwich/MEV/stale) beyond the unavoidable fee + own price impact. Proves that a fill "within slippage tolerance" can still have been robbed. Call after a swap to detect being sandwiched.

Forward-looking liquidity-provision risk. Given a realized price ratio (for impermanent loss) and/or a volatility + horizon (for expected divergence / LVR), returns the closed-form IL, the expected −σ²T/8 divergence, and — with a fee APR — the net forecast and breakeven volatility (the vol above which fees no longer cover the bleed). Self-checked: the IL closed form is verified at the token level against explicit constant-product amounts. Call before providing liquidity to see whether the fee yield can plausibly beat the divergence loss.

Portfolio greeks (delta/gamma/vega/theta/vanna/volga) + SPAN-style scenario margin for an options book on Black-76. Given a list of legs {type, strike, expiryDays, iv, quantity(signed)} and a forward, returns aggregate greeks, first-order P&L per underlying move, and the worst-case loss over a price×vol grid. Self-checked: analytic greeks are verified against finite-difference derivatives of the repriced book. Call to size an options book's true net risk and margin — not the sum of per-leg notionals.

Deterministic perpetual-futures risk. Given a position (entry, size, margin/leverage, maint-margin/maxLeverage), returns the exact liquidation price, the % adverse move to liquidation, effective leverage, and (if a funding rate is given) the funding drag. Pass a Hyperliquid symbol (e.g. BTC) to auto-fill live mark price, funding, and max leverage. Includes a self-check proving the liquidation invariant. Call this BEFORE opening or sizing any leveraged perp position — an agent that knows its true liquidation distance does not get surprise-liquidated.

Cross-venue portfolio risk. Given positions across venues [{venue, asset|symbol, side, size, entryPrice, margin|leverage, maxLeverage|marginTiers}] — OR just account: a Hyperliquid 0x address, whose FULL live book (positions, margins, account equity, the venue's own liquidation prices) is pulled keylessly — returns TRUE net exposure per underlying, the leg that liquidates FIRST (the binding constraint), concentration (HHI / effective independent bets), and a correlated-crash stress counting how many legs liquidate SIMULTANEOUSLY when the market moves ±X% (correlation→1, the Oct-10-2025 crash regime). Pass Hyperliquid symbols to auto-fill live mark/leverage/margin-tiers. Self-checked (exposure reconciliation, per-leg liquidation invariant, nearest=min, monotone stress, venue-liquidation cross-check). Call to see whether independently-sized bets are secretly ONE bet that blows up together.

Batch the content-hashes from many Quiver proof envelopes into ONE Merkle root plus per-item inclusion proofs, so a single on-chain anchor (your wallet's tx) attests all of them at once. Self-checked for completeness (every item verifies) and soundness (a non-member does not). Use to make a batch of risk computations cheaply and permanently attestable for audit/liability, without a chain write per computation.

Deterministic position sizing (fractional Kelly) + risk-of-ruin. Given an edge — discrete {winProb, winLossRatio} or continuous {expectedReturn, volatility} — and a bankroll, returns the fractional-Kelly size and the probability of ever drawing down to 50/75/90%. The direct antidote to over-betting: full Kelly rides thin edges to ruin; this defaults to quarter-Kelly. Call before sizing ANY position.

Stablecoin / on-chain treasury risk. Given a book of positions [{asset, amountUsd, apyPct, venue, chain, pegTarget, depegProbAnnual}], returns concentration (Herfindahl by asset/venue/chain + breaches over a limit), depeg stress (explicit scenarios + a worst-single-depeg scan), weighted and risk-adjusted yield. Self-checked: HHI == Σw², weights sum to 1, depeg-loss identity. Call to size a treasury's real risk — issuer/venue/chain concentration and depeg exposure — not just its headline APY.