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Prediction Markets Quant

Fed Rate Odds (FOMC)

fed_rate_odds
Read-only

Live market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, from Kalshi. Returns the next meeting with days-until and its full strike breakdown, plus the whole remaining rate path and the current fed funds rate. Free, no key. Also returns a cross-venue block comparing Kalshi against Polymarket and CME fed funds futures-implied odds for the next meeting, with the disagreement in percentage points. Free, no key. Use for "will the Fed cut rates", "fed rate hike odds", "next FOMC meeting odds", "what is the market pricing for September", "do Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the Fed".

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.2/5.0
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds useful context about live Kalshi data, free/no-key access, and the cross-venue comparison, but does not disclose refresh frequency or data lag.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is densely informative: core functionality, return contents, and example use cases are all present. The phrase 'Free, no key' is repeated twice, which is minor redundancy but does not undermine clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the burden of explaining return values. It enumerates all key outputs: next meeting with days-until, strike breakdown, remaining rate path, current fed funds rate, and the Kalshi/Polymarket/CME comparison. This is complete for a no-parameter read-only tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The tool has zero parameters and an empty schema, so the baseline is 4. The description appropriately notes that no key is required, making it clear that invocation requires no setup or input.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States clearly that the tool returns live market-implied Fed rate odds for remaining 2026 FOMC meetings, including next-meeting details and a cross-venue comparison. The Fed/FOMC scope is explicit and distinguishes it from the sports-focused sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides concrete natural-language use cases such as 'will the Fed cut rates' and 'next FOMC meeting odds'. It does not name exclusions, but the sibling list contains no close alternative, so the guidance is sufficient.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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