quant
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Quant tools + an NFL fantasy draft assistant for AI agents — Kalshi & Polymarket EV, edge, ADP.
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- PredictionMarketsPicks Quant
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Tool Definition Quality
Average 4.2/5 across 10 of 10 tools scored.
Each tool targets a distinct calculation or scan, with clear purposes like base rate comparison, Bayes update, EV calculation, combo grading, commodity signals, probability conversion, arbitrage scanning, Kelly sizing, macro pulse, and mispricing scanning. No overlapping functionality.
Tool names are lowercase with underscores and follow a generally consistent pattern, though some are verb_noun (calculate_ev, convert_probability) while others are noun_noun (base_rate_gap, combo_edge). Minor inconsistency but still readable and predictable.
10 tools is appropriate for a prediction-market quantification server, covering core functions without being overwhelming or sparse.
The tool set covers probability conversions, edge calculations, arbitrage, Kelly sizing, macro health, commodity signals, and Bayesian updates. Minor gaps like historical data or detailed market stats exist but core workflows are well-covered.
Available Tools
22 toolsadp_market_gapsADP Market GapsRead-onlyInspect
Find the 2026 fantasy players whose Average Draft Position swings most between platforms — consensus vs ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, Underdog, etc. A wide gap (e.g. "consensus RB18 but ESPN drafts him RB30") is a platform-specific value: grab him where he goes latest. Free, no key. Use for "ADP differences by platform", "where is a player cheapest", "ADP arbitrage", "who falls on ESPN vs Sleeper". Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX).
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max players to return, widest gap first (default 25). | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| position | No | Optional position filter (FLEX = RB/WR/TE). |
base_rate_gapBase Rate GapRead-onlyInspect
Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| baseRateId | No | Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). | |
| marketPrice | Yes | Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). | |
| baseRateValue | No | Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given. |
bayes_updateBayesian Probability UpdateRead-onlyInspect
Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| prior | Yes | Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Percent, not a fraction — pass 50 for 50%, not 0.5. | |
| evidence | Yes | One or more evidence items, applied in order. |
best_availableBest Available (Draft)Read-onlyInspect
Given the current pick number and the players already drafted, return the best players still on the board (2026 half-PPR), each with projection, ADP, and a value flag, plus the biggest model value available. Free, no key. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who is the best available", "who should I take next", "best player left". Input: pick_number, drafted (names already gone).
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| teams | No | League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12. | |
| roster | No | Player names on the USER's team — enables a bye-stack warning on the top pick (byes are shown per-player regardless). | |
| drafted | No | Player names already drafted (any team). Removed from the pool. | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. | |
| pick_number | Yes | The overall pick number that is on the clock. |
calculate_evCalculate EV EdgeRead-onlyInspect
Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| marketPrice | Yes | Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. | |
| yourProbability | Yes | Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Percent, not a fraction — pass 71 for 71%, not 0.71. |
combo_edgeCombo Edge VerdictRead-onlyInspect
Grade a same-game combo (parlay-style multi-leg position) on a prediction market against its fair value. Given each leg price in cents and your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint win probability, returns the fair-value ODDS BAND to grade a quote against. Pass offeredOdds — the price your platform actually quotes for the combo (Kalshi combo RFQ or an SGP product) — to get the expected-value %, a negative-correlation-trap flag, and a 7-tier verdict (SMASH / PLAY / LEAN / RISK / NO_VALUE / PASS / RUN). Without offeredOdds it returns fair value + band only (no verdict) — never grade EV off the product of the leg prices, which no venue pays. Use for "is this combo worth it", "grade my parlay quote", "same-game combo value".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| legPrices | Yes | Each leg's YES price in cents (1–99). Used only for the theoretical assemble ceiling. | |
| offeredOdds | No | The combo price your platform actually quotes — American odds (e.g. -150, 988) or a decimal payout multiplier (e.g. 10.7). Grades EV + verdict against fair value. Omit to get fair value + band only. | |
| trueWinProbability | Yes | Your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint probability all legs hit, in % (0–100). |
commodity_edgeCommodity Edge (Silver / Bitcoin)Read-onlyInspect
Get today's highest-conviction silver or bitcoin trade signal from the PMP edge model — the Kalshi weekly-silver (KXSILVERW) or twice-daily bitcoin (KXBTCD) strike with the largest model edge, as a trade ticket: entry side and price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge in percentage points, confidence tier, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Pro key required. Use for "silver edge today", "bitcoin trade signal", "is there a commodity edge". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (returns the signal only if it matches the strike PMP is modeling).
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| tickers | No | Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge). | |
| commodity | Yes | Which commodity edge to read: silver or bitcoin. |
compare_playersCompare Players (Draft)Read-onlyInspect
Compare 2–4 players side by side for a 2026 fantasy draft (half-PPR) — projection, floor/ceiling, ADP, draft round, and value flag — and get a pick recommendation plus which one is the best market value. Free, no key. Use for " or in fantasy", "who should I draft, or ", "compare and ", "start/draft vs ".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| players | Yes | 2–4 player full names to compare. | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. |
convert_probabilityConvert Probability / OddsRead-onlyInspect
Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| value | Yes | The numeric value to convert. | |
| format | Yes | Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). |
draft_boardFantasy Draft BoardRead-onlyInspect
The PredictionMarketsPicks 2026 fantasy football draft board (half-PPR) — every player ranked, blending our projection model with consensus ADP, showing projected points, ADP, draft round, and a SLEEPER / BUST value flag. Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX). Free, no key. Use for "fantasy football rankings 2026", "who are the top RBs", "draft board", "best available by position".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max players to return, best first (default 50). | |
| teams | No | League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12. | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. | |
| position | No | Optional position filter (FLEX = RB/WR/TE). |
edge_alertsEdge Alerts (weather / commodity / mispricing)Read-onlyInspect
Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| feed | No | Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all. | |
| limit | No | Max alerts to return (default 25). | |
| since | No | ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it. | |
| min_tier | No | Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). |
find_arbitrageFind Sports Arbitrage GapsRead-onlyInspect
Scan for cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup). Returns each game where the two venues disagree on the implied probability, the gap in percentage points, the WATCH/ARB signal, and which venue is cheaper. Pro key required. Use for "where is the arbitrage", "cross-platform price gaps", "Kalshi vs Polymarket mispricing".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| minGap | No | Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold). |
kelly_sizeKelly Position SizeRead-onlyInspect
Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| bankroll | Yes | Total bankroll in dollars. | |
| fraction | No | Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. | half |
| marketPrice | Yes | Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. | |
| winProbability | Yes | Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Percent, not a fraction — pass 60 for 60%, not 0.6. |
market_pulseMarket Pulse — MacroRead-onlyInspect
The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Pro key required. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off". (NFL edges moved to the dedicated nfl_edge tool.)
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| topic | No | macro = US macro-health composite (the only topic — NFL is now the nfl_edge tool). | macro |
nfl_edgeNFL Edge (model vs Kalshi)Read-onlyInspect
Where the PredictionMarketsPicks NFL model disagrees with live Kalshi prices — the actionable edge across every NFL market: game moneylines this week, season win-total futures, MVP, and championship (playoff / conference / Super Bowl) odds. Returns model probability, Kalshi price, edge in percentage points, and the side, biggest edges first. Pro key required. Use for "which NFL games are mispriced on Kalshi", "NFL win total edges", "NFL MVP value", "Super Bowl odds edge", "NFL prediction market picks". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (applies to the futures / mvp / championship markets, which are ticker-addressable).
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max rows (default 10). | |
| market | No | game = this week moneyline edges; futures = season win totals; mvp = KXNFLMVP; championship = playoff/conference/Super Bowl. | game |
| minEdge | No | Minimum absolute edge in pp to include (default 4). Ignored when tickers[] is passed. | |
| tickers | No | Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge). |
nfl_power_ratingsNFL Power Ratings (GER)Read-onlyInspect
The PredictionMarketsPicks NFL power ratings — the Gridiron Edge Rating (GER) for all 32 teams, a defense-adjusted power number expressed as expected points vs an average team, with each team's rank and tier. Free, no key. Use for "best NFL teams by power rating", "NFL power rankings 2026", "is Baltimore overrated", "how good is Kansas City", "NFL team ratings".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| team | No | Optional team abbreviation (e.g. "KC", "SF", "LA") — returns just that team's rating + rank. | |
| tier | No | Optional: only teams in this tier (e.g. "Contender", "Playoff", "Average", "Rebuild"). | |
| limit | No | Max teams to return, best rating first (default 32 = full board). |
nfl_prop_edgeNFL Player Prop Edge (model vs Kalshi)Read-onlyInspect
NFL player-prop edges — the PredictionMarketsPicks projection vs the Kalshi prop line for passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and anytime touchdown. Returns the model projection, model probability, Kalshi price, edge, and side. Live in-season (opens NFL Week 1). Pro key required. Use for "NFL player prop edges", "best NFL props today", "passing yards over under", "receiving yards prop value".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max rows (default 10). | |
| minEdge | No | Min absolute edge in pp (default 5). | |
| propType | No | Optional filter by prop type. |
nfl_win_probabilityNFL Win Probability CalculatorRead-onlyInspect
Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability — using the PredictionMarketsPicks scoring-margin model. Provide the spread (home-favored = negative, e.g. -6.5) and optional total, OR two team abbreviations to auto-derive the spread from the power ratings. Free, no key. Use for "NFL win probability from the spread", "what does a -7 spread mean", "who wins Chiefs vs 49ers", "NFL score prediction".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| total | No | Game total (over/under points). Defaults to the league baseline (44) if omitted. | |
| spread | No | Point spread from the home team's perspective — home favored is NEGATIVE (e.g. -6.5). Provide this OR homeTeam+awayTeam. | |
| awayTeam | No | Away team abbrev — used with homeTeam. | |
| homeTeam | No | Home team abbrev — auto-derives the spread from PMP power ratings. |
player_outlookPlayer Draft OutlookRead-onlyInspect
A single player's 2026 fantasy outlook (half-PPR): projected points and per-game, floor/ceiling range, boom/bust odds, consensus ADP and draft round, our positional rank, and whether the model tags him a SLEEPER or a BUST vs the market, with a one-line thesis. Free, no key. Use for "is a sleeper", " fantasy outlook 2026", "should I draft ", " projection".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| player | Yes | Player full name (e.g. "Bijan Robinson", "Jaxon Smith-Njigba"). | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. |
scan_mispricingsScan MispricingsRead-onlyInspect
Scan Polymarket contracts for mispricings against the PMP model (a probability swarm). Returns each market where the model disagrees with the price, the direction to take, the edge in percentage points, and quarter-Kelly sizing, sorted by absolute edge. Pro key required. Use for "where is the edge today", "mispriced markets", "what should I trade".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Max rows to return (default 10). | |
| minEdge | No | Minimum absolute edge in pp to include (default 5). |
sleepers_and_bustsSleepers & BustsRead-onlyInspect
The biggest gaps between the PredictionMarketsPicks model and consensus ADP for 2026 (half-PPR): SLEEPERS the model ranks well above their draft cost, and BUSTS it ranks below. Filter by position or draft round. Free, no key. Use for "fantasy sleepers 2026", "draft busts to avoid", "undervalued players", "overrated fantasy players", "late-round sleepers".
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| round | No | Optional draft round filter (by league size, default 12-team). | |
| teams | No | League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12. | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. | |
| position | No | Optional position filter. |
who_do_i_draftWho Do I Draft?Read-onlyInspect
Recommend the single best player to draft right now given the roster already on the user's team and their pick number, weighing positional need against the best value available (2026 half-PPR). Free, no key. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who should I take", "who do I draft", "what do I need". Input: roster (names on their team), pick_number. Returns one pick + a one-line reason.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| teams | No | League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12. | |
| roster | Yes | Player names already on the user's team. | |
| scoring | No | Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults. | |
| platform | No | League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball. | |
| pick_number | Yes | The overall pick number on the clock. |
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