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Prediction Markets Quant

Explain This Game — why we price an NFL game there

explain_game
Read-only

Why the PredictionMarketsPicks model prices one NFL game where it does: the Kalshi price and market line, our published win probability and what it is anchored to, the model's own line as a lean in points, each team's power rating split into offense, defense and special teams, the QB gate (PASS, ADJUSTED, FORK with both lines, or HOLD), and the published position (side, Kalshi price, edge) or why none is published. Use for "why do you price vs there", "explain the game line", "what is driving the model on 's game". Pass game as two teams in any form ("Bills vs Chiefs", "BUF@KC") or one team for its game; week defaults to the current week.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
gameNoThe matchup — two teams in any form ("Bills vs Chiefs", "BUF@KC", "Buffalo at Kansas City"), or one team for its game that week.
weekNoOptional NFL week (e.g. 6). Defaults to the current week.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • removedInput schema / properties / week / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "type": "number"
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "type": "string"
      -  }
      -]
    • addedInput schema / properties / week / type
      Added value: +[
      +  "number",
      +  "string"
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden and discharges it: it names the returned elements (Kalshi price and market line, published win probability and its anchor, model line as a points lean, offense/defense/special-teams power rating split), discloses the QB gate states (PASS, ADJUSTED, FORK with both lines, HOLD), and explains the negative case — the published position or why none is published. Annotations already declare it read-only and closed-world, and nothing here contradicts them.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the core deliverable and then the usage triggers; every clause maps to actual output content rather than filler. The opening sentence is dense and long, packing seven-plus return components into one clause chain, which costs a point on readability but not on waste.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a tool with zero required params, no output schema, and no enum constraints, the description supplies the return-value semantics and the input format guidance an agent needs. It stops short of covering edge behavior — e.g. what happens with an ambiguous or unknown team, or a week with no game — which is the only remaining gap.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, and both the game-format flexibility ("Bills vs Chiefs", "BUF@KC", "Buffalo at Kansas City", or one team) and the week default are already stated verbatim in the schema. The description's restatement adds example color but no semantics beyond the structured fields, so the baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource (explain why the model prices one NFL game where it does) and enumerates the exact reasoning components returned. It is clearly distinguishable from the many sibling 'explain_*' tools (explain_ladder, explain_player, explain_prop) and from nfl_win_probability/nfl_power_ratings by naming the NFL game line as its subject.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives concrete trigger phrases ("why do you price <team> vs <team> there", "explain the <team> game line", "what is driving the model on <team>'s game") plus the accepted game formats and the week default. It does not explicitly say when NOT to use this tool or name a sibling alternative (e.g. explain_prop for a single prop question), so routing to the nearest neighbor is left to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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