We're Entering the "Real" Adoption Phase of the MCP Hype Cycle

"Is MCP dead?" posts keep popping up on r/mcp.

Just saw one today, that happened to include a thoughtful comment that I want to highlight:

Maybe you’ve heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? All impactful new tech goes through the phases.
MCP is experiencing an accelerated journey through the Hype Cycle, having rapidly moved from its introduction in late 2024 to a peak of intense interest by mid-2025. The protocol is currently transitioning from extreme, "vibe-coding" hype toward a more practical, albeit fragmented, phase of adoption.
Innovation Trigger (Nov 2024 - Feb 2025)
Launch: Anthropic introduced MCP in Nov 2024 to solve the "M x N" problem of connecting AI models to data sources.
Key Drivers: Early adoption was driven by the integration of MCP into tools like Cursor and the rise of "vibe coding" (building applications without writing code).
Initial Hype: The industry saw it as a revolutionary way to connect LLMs to local files, databases, and APIs.
Peak of Inflated Expectations (Mar 2025 - July 2025)
The Gold Rush: By mid-2025, thousands of developers were forking and creating MCP servers, but with a massive imbalance—roughly 25 builders for every actual user.
"Everything" is an MCP: The hype reached a point where MCP was touted as the solution for all AI-to-tool connections, leading to over-engineering and premature adoption, with many servers being "ghost towns".
Security Risks: Early, poorly designed MCP servers led to uncovered security holes, creating, in some cases, a "ticking time bomb" for enterprises.
Trough of Disillusionment (Mid-2025 - Late 2025)
Reality Check: The initial, unbridled excitement began to fade as organizations realized that MCP is not a magic wand.
Technical Roadblocks: Users hit real-world limits:
Stateful Constraints: MCP relies on long-lived, stateful connections, which clash with serverless architecture, making it difficult to scale.
Performance Issues: Poorly structured, large-payload MCP servers caused latency and token overflow.
Maintenance: The rapid evolution of the spec led to breaking changes.
Slope of Enlightenment (Late 2025 - Early 2026)
"Real" Adoption: By late 2025, the focus shifted from hype to "disciplined substance," with companies focusing on deeper MCP primitives (resources, prompts, sampling) rather than just simple API wrappers.
Standardization: The launch of official, vetted MCP registries is helping to stabilize the ecosystem.
Industry Buy-in: With support from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI, MCP is becoming a "de facto standard" rather than a mere fad, shifting from a "dev playground" to an "enterprise standard".
Current Status
MCP is not merely a fad, but a foundational, yet immature, technology. It is currently in a phase where its oversupply of builders is accelerating the ecosystem, but it is moving away from the initial "vibe" toward requiring solid technical and organizational foundations.

I thought this to be a brilliant capture of the MCP timeline, and didn't want it to get lost in a sea of Reddit threads.

My personal take is that we are at the very beginning of the "real" adoption phase, and the signs are there:

protocol has matured a lot
dev tooling has matured a lot
infra to deploy/access MCPs has matured a lot
lots more MCP-capable clients

Shoutout to everyone who stuck through the ups and downs. It's been a wild ride so far and I foresee an exciting future ahead of us.

And for those who are chasing the next-best-thing, my advice to you is: Stop chasing the hype cycle. You will be perpetually disappointed and burned out. Develop personal conviction based on the fundamentals of the technology. You will be rewarded for powering through the cycle.