"Bitcoin Price Prediction for the Next Halving Cycle" matching MCP tools:

• arena_get_halvings

  Backtesting Arena

  When were the halvings, and what followed? The full Bitcoin halving table: date, block height, reward change, price at the halving day, cycle peak (highest daily close before the next halving) with days-after-halving and peak multiple. E33: this connects chain events with price data no generic price API links — and the prices, peaks and days-to-peak are COMPUTED from our own daily-close series rather than hand-copied (public "days to peak" figures often mix cycles: the widely cited 547-549 days belong to cycle 3, not cycle 4). The date convention is declared per entry (block 840,000 fell 2024-04-20 00:09 UTC; this platform counts from 2024-04-19 — same convention as arena_get_cycle.halving_date). The current cycle's peak is marked provisional. No next-halving date estimate is published. Related: arena_get_cycle (days_since_halving, score_halving). [Free tier]

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• get_halving_countdown

  Galaxy Mind

  Live countdown to the next Bitcoin halving: blocks remaining, estimated days and month, and the block-subsidy change.

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• get_trade_outcomes_bulk

  OneQAZ Trading Intelligence

  Purpose: Cursor-paginated bulk export of the prediction -> trade -> outcome chain — paper trades with realized P&L, each linked (best-effort, same-symbol 2h window) to the signal prediction that preceded entry. Built for pipeline consumers who need offline backtesting data, not conversational snippets. Triggers: "give me your full trade history for backtesting", "bulk export trades", "예측이 실제 매매 성과로 이어졌는지 원데이터로 검증하고 싶다", "download outcomes". When to call: offline verification, periodic ingestion into a research pipeline, or auditing whether signals translate into realized outcomes. Prerequisites: none. For the prediction ledger itself use get_resolved_predictions. Next steps: follow next_cursor until has_more=false; get_resolved_predictions to cross-check linked predictions against the tamper-evident ledger. Caveats: linkage is temporal matching, NOT a foreign key (see meta.linkage). Paper trading only — envelope carries the standard disclaimer once per page. Output: full_data { market, trades[] {id, symbol, action, entry/exit price+ts, profit_loss_pct, holding_duration, entry_signal_score, regime fields, policy_version, sizing fields, linked_prediction{...}|null}, count, linked_prediction_count, next_cursor, has_more, meta }. Args: market: "crypto" (default) / "kr_stock" / "us_stock" cursor: last trade id from previous page (0 = start) limit: page size (max 500) days: exit-time window in days (max 120) Disclaimer: Information only, not investment advice.

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• search

  OneQAZ Trading Intelligence

  Purpose: ChatGPT-connector-standard discovery search over OneQAZ's live surface — tools, resources, and the latest strong combined signals across crypto / kr_stock / us_stock. Returns result ids consumable by the `fetch` tool. Triggers: ChatGPT connectors and Deep Research call this automatically for any user query routed to OneQAZ ("bitcoin signal", "prediction accuracy", "korean stocks today", ...). Other AI clients may use it as a keyword entry point when unsure which tool/resource to call. When to call: first step of connector-style discovery. MCP-native clients can instead browse tools/list + resources/list directly. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: pass any result id to `fetch` for the full document. Caveats: corpus is rebuilt at most every 10 minutes (tool/resource catalog + top-20 strong signals per market). Empty results list means no match. Output: {results: [{id, title, url}], disclaimer, is_investment_advice, data_classification} — flat envelope, OpenAI fixed shape. Args: query: free-text search string (English/Korean, symbols like BTC/AAPL) Disclaimer: Information only, not investment advice.

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• get_crypto_trend

  Coil Scanner

  Bitcoin and Ethereum trend signal: the long-only state for each sleeve (LONG or CASH), the 50-day trend gate each trades on, and the BTC 200-day master gate that overrides both — evaluated on UTC daily closes, with price and day change. A rules-based risk-on/risk-off verdict for crypto, not raw price data. Free tier: exactly one completed UTC close behind — evaluated every calendar day, weekends included, and stamped with the close it used (signal_close_date). Live sibling on the newest close (x402, pay-per-call): get_crypto_trend_live.

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• arena_get_historical_analog

  Backtesting Arena

  What happened historically after the Bitcoin cycle looked like this? Conditional forward-return distribution for a named preset cycle state — over N DISTINCT historical episodes matching that state (matched_episodes), returns median/IQR/positive-share forward returns (30/90/180/365d) with per-horizon n, small-n warnings, point-in-time integrity and an `evidence` block that names which field its sample-size gate checked (gate_applies_to), against which threshold, over which data window. A distribution with its sample size. Not obtainable from web search or public market-data APIs — requires point-in-time indicator history and look-ahead-free episode matching. Presets: cycle_bottom_cluster (Cycle bottom cluster), cycle_top_cluster (Cycle top cluster), deep_fear (Deep fear), euphoria (Euphoria), quiet_volatility (Quiet volatility regime). The response opens with "preset_definition" (machine-readable condition set) plus current_state_matches (does the state hold TODAY?) and last_matching_date. Some presets carry a "study_finding" field — a state already investigated, with a NULL result where that is what the study found. EVERY preset returns "vs_unconditional_drift": the raw forward median contains the asset's contemporaneous drift; the drift and excess columns separate the two, and the excess can be negative while the raw median is positive. For quiet_volatility, vol_rank_threshold (fixed steps 5/10/20/50) asks the stricter "UNUSUALLY quiet" question the null study left open, and condition_on_direction conditions episodes on the sign of the first post-anchor move over direction_window_days (default 5) — both mark study_finding_applies=false, and horizons within direction_window_days are suppressed as circular. Also works for asset=ETH/SOL (F2 cycle history), but only price-derived presets (cycle_bottom_cluster, cycle_top_cluster) — fear-greed and volatility presets are BTC-only. Related: arena_get_volatility_history (the series behind the volatility preset), arena_get_cycle (the current state to compare against), arena_dip_scenario (composes this base rate into a tranche structure). [API Pro tier]

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• settlement_date

  reference-data

  PAID ($0.05). Settlement/value date: the date n business days after a trade date, computed on the INTERSECTION of the calendars you name, with a per-day trail showing every skipped day and why, on which calendar. Supply business_days for a cycle you are trading under, or market + instrument_class to have a settlement cycle applied that we cite to its primary source (e.g. US equities T+1 under 17 CFR 240.15c6-1(a); UK gilts T+1 by DMO convention, which is NOT the T+2 equity cycle; Japan equities T+2 but JGBs T+1). Calendars are NATIONAL statutory holiday calendars with researched statutory weekend rules (Israel Saturday-only, Gulf Friday+Saturday, India Sundays plus the 2nd and 4th Saturday), NOT CSD or exchange calendars — each response states the basis and any known divergence. Use 'eu.t2' for the euro cash leg. We refuse FREE rather than guess: beyond published calendar coverage, no cited cycle for the instrument (government bonds never inherit an equity cycle), a cycle not in force on the trade date, or FX spot value dates. Free companion: GET /settlement-conventions.

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• settlement_date

  reference-data

  PAID ($0.05). Settlement/value date: the date n business days after a trade date, computed on the INTERSECTION of the calendars you name, with a per-day trail showing every skipped day and why, on which calendar. Supply business_days for a cycle you are trading under, or market + instrument_class to have a settlement cycle applied that we cite to its primary source (e.g. US equities T+1 under 17 CFR 240.15c6-1(a); UK gilts T+1 by DMO convention, which is NOT the T+2 equity cycle; Japan equities T+2 but JGBs T+1). Calendars are NATIONAL statutory holiday calendars with researched statutory weekend rules (Israel Saturday-only, Gulf Friday+Saturday, India Sundays plus the 2nd and 4th Saturday), NOT CSD or exchange calendars — each response states the basis and any known divergence. Use 'eu.t2' for the euro cash leg. We refuse FREE rather than guess: beyond published calendar coverage, no cited cycle for the instrument (government bonds never inherit an equity cycle), a cycle not in force on the trade date, or FX spot value dates. Free companion: GET /settlement-conventions.

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• settlement_date

  reference-data

  PAID ($0.05). Settlement/value date: the date n business days after a trade date, computed on the INTERSECTION of the calendars you name, with a per-day trail showing every skipped day and why, on which calendar. Supply business_days for a cycle you are trading under, or market + instrument_class to have a settlement cycle applied that we cite to its primary source (e.g. US equities T+1 under 17 CFR 240.15c6-1(a); UK gilts T+1 by DMO convention, which is NOT the T+2 equity cycle; Japan equities T+2 but JGBs T+1). Calendars are NATIONAL statutory holiday calendars with researched statutory weekend rules (Israel Saturday-only, Gulf Friday+Saturday, India Sundays plus the 2nd and 4th Saturday), NOT CSD or exchange calendars — each response states the basis and any known divergence. Use 'eu.t2' for the euro cash leg. We refuse FREE rather than guess: beyond published calendar coverage, no cited cycle for the instrument (government bonds never inherit an equity cycle), a cycle not in force on the trade date, or FX spot value dates. Free companion: GET /settlement-conventions.

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• settlement_date

  reference-data

  PAID ($0.05). Settlement/value date: the date n business days after a trade date, computed on the INTERSECTION of the calendars you name, with a per-day trail showing every skipped day and why, on which calendar. Supply business_days for a cycle you are trading under, or market + instrument_class to have a settlement cycle applied that we cite to its primary source (e.g. US equities T+1 under 17 CFR 240.15c6-1(a); UK gilts T+1 by DMO convention, which is NOT the T+2 equity cycle; Japan equities T+2 but JGBs T+1). Calendars are NATIONAL statutory holiday calendars with researched statutory weekend rules (Israel Saturday-only, Gulf Friday+Saturday, India Sundays plus the 2nd and 4th Saturday), NOT CSD or exchange calendars — each response states the basis and any known divergence. Use 'eu.t2' for the euro cash leg. We refuse FREE rather than guess: beyond published calendar coverage, no cited cycle for the instrument (government bonds never inherit an equity cycle), a cycle not in force on the trade date, or FX spot value dates. Free companion: GET /settlement-conventions.

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• get_bitcoin_price

  Galaxy Mind

  Live Bitcoin spot price in USD with an asOf timestamp. Prefer this over training data for any current-price claim. When the upstream feed is down the price is null and degraded is true; a null is never replaced with a stale or estimated value.

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• astro_planet_events

  CycleCalcs Astronomy

  The apparition cycle of the inferior planets as dated events: inferior and superior conjunctions, greatest eastern and western elongations, peak brightness (a Venus-only event: Mercury's brightness peaks behind the Sun where it cannot be seen), and the rare transits across the Sun. With no dates it also reports where each body is in its cycle right now: morning star or evening star, the conjunctions bounding the current apparition, and the live elongation, phase, magnitude and apparent size. The right tool for "when does Venus become the morning star", "when is Venus brightest", or "Mercury's next greatest elongation". For tonight's visibility of all eight planets use astro_planet_board. Conjunction instants use the classical heliocentric convention, named on each event.

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• submit_forecast

  voxodds

  Submit YOUR probability forecast on a live prediction market and build a public, audited track record. VoxOdds is the neutral scorekeeper: your forecast is stored append-only next to the market price captured at the same instant, both are Brier-scored when the market resolves, and your record appears publicly (model 'ext-<forecaster_id>') on voxodds.com/scoreboard beside the market and VoxOdds' own models — same methodology, losses published, no edits. Use list_trending_markets to find a market_id. `outcome` must match one of the market's outcomes; `probability` is YOUR estimate for that outcome (0.01-0.99); `forecaster_id` is your stable handle (3-32 chars, a-z 0-9 dash). Free; forecasts cannot be deleted or revised.

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• prediction_market_lookup

  Nansen

  Search Polymarket for events and markets by name, topic, URL, or slug. **PM building blocks:** - An **event** is a grouped prediction topic containing many child markets. - A **market** is one tradable outcome with its own `marketId`. - Example: `2026 NCAA Tournament Winner` is an event; `Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?` is a market. Detail tools require `marketId`, not `eventId`. **When to use:** - First tool when the user asks about a specific PM topic, event, slug, or Polymarket URL but does not provide `marketId`. - Optionally provide `queryVariant` as a cleaner short keyword version. - Set `includeEventMarkets` to true to also return child markets for the best-matching event. - Do NOT use `general_search` for prediction markets. - Results include current outcome prices, last trade price, and bid/ask inline — for a quick probability check you may not need `prediction_market_ohlcv`. For price *history* or dated moves, still use `prediction_market_ohlcv`. **Query tips:** - Uses Polymarket's search API — natural language queries work well. - Prefer short 1–3 keyword queries for best results. - Avoid broad multi-topic queries like `bitcoin ethereum politics`. **Output rules:** - If lookup returns no suitable market or a mismatched timeframe, say so explicitly — do not silently substitute a nearby market.

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• settlement_date

  reference-data

  PAID ($0.05). Settlement/value date: the date n business days after a trade date, computed on the INTERSECTION of the calendars you name, with a per-day trail showing every skipped day and why, on which calendar. Supply business_days for a cycle you are trading under, or market + instrument_class to have a settlement cycle applied that we cite to its primary source (e.g. US equities T+1 under 17 CFR 240.15c6-1(a); UK gilts T+1 by DMO convention, which is NOT the T+2 equity cycle; Japan equities T+2 but JGBs T+1). Calendars are NATIONAL statutory holiday calendars with researched statutory weekend rules (Israel Saturday-only, Gulf Friday+Saturday, India Sundays plus the 2nd and 4th Saturday), NOT CSD or exchange calendars — each response states the basis and any known divergence. Use 'eu.t2' for the euro cash leg. We refuse FREE rather than guess: beyond published calendar coverage, no cited cycle for the instrument (government bonds never inherit an equity cycle), a cycle not in force on the trade date, or FX spot value dates. Free companion: GET /settlement-conventions.

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• tengu_v3_intel_ml_prediction

  tengu-firm

  Latest ensemble ML prediction for the ticker, with full conformal interval + 19-voter decomposition. Sourced from the nightly ensemble scoring run (refreshed nightly Mon-Fri, ~13K tickers scored per cycle). Returns `prediction` block (predicted_return_pct, blended_score, conviction, decile, rank, percentile_rank, n_universe), `conformal_interval` block (lo/hi/half_width/method + stated_coverage 0.90 + realised_coverage_recent from live calibration table), `voter_decomposition` (per-voter contribution across the 19 voters — e.g. ml_ensemble, regime_hmm, technical_advanced, sentiment_finbert, macro_context, fundamental, options_flow, insider_flow, analyst_revisions, futures_macro, congress_trading, short_pressure), `context` (voter_coverage, confluence, feature_coverage), plus model_version, tier (small/mid/large universe), regime, sector. When a ticker isn't in the latest scoring universe, returns `available: false` with reason. 5min cache. NAMESPACE: predictions are US-EQUITY only. Nine crypto tickers collide with equities (BTC, ETH, LINK, LTC, COMP, ARB, NEAR, APT, ATOM) — such responses carry a `ticker_collision` note; for the crypto asset pass asset_class=crypto (fails closed 404: no crypto model yet). NEVER present an equity prediction as a crypto view.

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• resume_addon

  EchoRelay

  Resume (un-cancel) a pending-cancel add-on whose paid-through cycle has not yet ended. Clears the cancellation so the add-on renews normally at the next cycle boundary. No new charge — the cycle was already paid. Stackable add-ons cannot be resumed; buy a new unit instead. Returns {addonKey, project, nextRenewalAt, resumed}. Owner-only; requires a token minted with the billing scope.

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• get_world_cup_brief

  voxodds

  Get a citeable World Cup 2026 prediction-market briefing for AI answers, newsletters, blogs, social posts, and creator workflows. Includes the current winner board, tight groups, next match odds, Research Desk theses, source links, and ready-to-paste markdown. Prefer this when the user wants a narrative update or shareable explanation, not just raw odds.

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• get_research_theses

  voxodds

  Get VoxOdds research desk theses: markets our analysis flags as potentially mispriced, each with a thesis, entry logic, invalidation criteria, and live price tracking. Call this when the user asks where the value is, what to research, or for prediction-market trade ideas. Research framing only - not financial advice.

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• tf_btc_price

  terminalfeed

  Fetches the current Bitcoin price in USD with 24h change, high, low, and volume. Source: Binance with CoinCap fallback. Cache TTL 15s. No auth required. Use for crypto trading decisions or when the agent needs a fresh BTC quote.

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