Click on "Deploy Server".
Wait a few minutes for the server to deploy. Once ready, it will show a "Started" state.
In the chat, type @ followed by the MCP server name and your instructions, e.g., "@confirmation-outlook-mcp Which materials are likely to miss confirmation next week?"
That's it! The server will respond to your query, and you can continue using it as needed.
Here is a step-by-step guide with screenshots.
A full-stack demo of a predictive supply-chain tool: instead of reporting last week's order-confirmation rate, it forecasts which materials will miss confirmation next week, splits the at-risk book into recoverable vs structural, and hands an operator the lever to pull.
▶ Live: https://demo.appliediqsolutions.com — no login, synthetic data. Write-up: https://appliediqsolutions.com/confirmation-outlook/
Northpoint Manufacturing is fictional. Every row of data is synthetic — generated by a seeded, documented generator — and every number on screen is then computed by a real engine that has no access to the generator's hidden state. The build fails if the engine can't honestly recover the planted structure (42-assertion validation gate).
Built by Ian Provencher. A de-identified rebuild of a production pattern from my supply-chain work — no proprietary data, code, or branding.
Layer | What's real about it |
Predictive engine ( | Every probability is a measured frequency over week-to-week transitions — a risk table by (failing now × receipt-short × stressed) with min-support fallback, not a fitted black box. |
Held-out validation | The final week is excluded from calibration and predicted from the prior week's signals: ~97% of actual failures inside the flagged register, ~80% worklist precision. The persistence floor is reported separately from the leading signal, so no metric takes credit it didn't earn. |
Data layer | SQLite — synthetic world + precomputed warm state baked at Docker build time (cold start < 2 s). Rollups run live SQL. |
Serving | One process: FastAPI REST ( |
AI chat ( | Claude answering over the same read-only tools, hard-capped for public use (per-IP sliding window + daily budget, |
Front ( | Vite + React, hand-rolled SVG charts, dark/light instrument theme, glossary tooltips, xlsx exports. |
Related MCP server: Supply Chain Disruption Monitor
docker compose up --build # then open http://localhost:7860Or bare Python (3.12+):
pip install -r requirements.txt
python -m app.build_db # generate + bake + 42-assertion selfcheck
cd web && npm ci && npm run build && cd ..
uvicorn app.api:app --port 7860The Ask tab needs ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in the environment; everything else runs keyless.
python -m app.selfcheck — the validation gate (headline memoryless, risk gradient monotone,
held-out recall/precision, partition assertions, measured-vs-planted recovery).
pytest tests — API contract tests.
docs/METHODOLOGY.md — how the synthetic world is constructed and why the validation is honest.
Every displayed number is one curl away: /api/headline, /api/forecast, /api/register.
generate.py ──> SQLite (synthetic world) ──> engine.py / predict.py ──> bake.py (warm state)
│
service.py (one JSON-safe source of truth)
│ │ │
REST /api/* MCP /mcp/ React front /
└── agent.py (Claude tool loop, rate-limited)This server cannot be deployed
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