The AGI Scorecard — MCP server & dataset

Every prediction in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness (June 2024), graded against reality with pre-registered flip conditions, plus one auditable 0–100 score for the whole 2027 bet. Listed in the official MCP Registry as com.agiscorecard/agi-scorecard.

Thesis Tracker: 62.5/100 · verdicts as of 2026-08-08

This repository is a mirror. The single source of truth is agiscorecard.com — nothing here is hand-written; sync.mjs rebuilds the tables from the live dataset every day.

MCP server (connect an agent directly)

claude mcp add --transport http agiscorecard https://agiscorecard.com/mcp

{ "mcpServers": { "agiscorecard": { "type": "http", "url": "https://agiscorecard.com/mcp" } } }

No auth, no install, streamable HTTP. Setup notes: https://agiscorecard.com/for-agents

4 tools

Related MCP server: analysis-gym

Why this dataset is different

• Pre-registered flip conditions. Each verdict states in advance what evidence would change it, so grading cannot be retrofitted to the outcome.

• The misses stay published. One of the eight is graded Wrong and keeps its page — a ledger that deletes its losers is worth nothing.

• One number, recomputed from the verdicts. The Tracker is not an opinion: supportive = 1, open/pending = 0.5, refuted = 0, averaged. Full history below.

• Dated. Every figure carries the date it was last reviewed.

Current verdicts

| 🟢 On track | Models outpace college graduates across knowledge work | 2025/26 | detail | | 🟢 On track | Compute + algorithmic scaling continues at trend | ~0.5 OOM/yr | detail | | 🟢 Exceeded | Massive AI capex acceleration | $500B/yr era | detail | | 🔴 Wrong | Open source fades; proprietary algorithms create a durable US moat | — | detail | | 🟡 Open | AGI: models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer | 2027 | detail | | 🟡 Open | US government launches formal AGI project | 2027/28 | detail | | ⚪ Pending | Intelligence explosion: a decade of progress in ~1 year | 2027-29 | detail | | ⚪ Pending | Superintelligence; decisive strategic advantage | 2030s | detail |

Thesis Tracker history

| 2026-06-30 | 62.5 | | 2026-07-12 | 62.5 | | 2026-08-08 | 62.5 |

Machine-readable

Also served live: /llms.txt · /data.json · /index-history.json

Licence

Dataset: CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution to agiscorecard.com. See LICENSE.

Not investment advice; research and education only.