forecast-mcp
Click on "Deploy Server".
Wait a few minutes for the server to deploy. Once ready, it will show a "Started" state.
In the chat, type
@followed by the MCP server name and your instructions, e.g., "@forecast-mcpforecast project duration with 3-point estimates: 10, 20, 30 days"
That's it! The server will respond to your query, and you can continue using it as needed.
Here is a step-by-step guide with screenshots.
forecast-mcp
Give your AI a Monte Carlo forecasting engine. A Model Context Protocol server that turns three-point estimates and historical throughput into calibrated, probabilistic forecasts: project timelines, cost ranges, and "when will it be done?" delivery dates.
Fully local. No API keys. No network calls.
Why this exists
Large language models are genuinely bad at probability. Ask one for a project deadline and it will confidently invent a single number, or "simulate" a distribution it cannot actually compute. Monte Carlo forecasting is exactly the kind of work an LLM should delegate to a tool: run thousands of seeded random trials and report the real distribution.
forecast-mcp gives any MCP-capable client (Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, and others) five tools to do that properly, so instead of "this will take about three weeks" you get:
P50 = 19.5 days, P80 = 24.1 days, P95 = 28.7 days, and an 84% chance of finishing within your 25-day target.
Related MCP server: Project Portfolio Guide MCP Server
Install
Run it straight from npm with npx (no install needed):
npx forecast-mcpThen register it with your client. For Claude Desktop / Claude Code, add to your MCP config:
{
"mcpServers": {
"forecast": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["-y", "forecast-mcp"]
}
}
}That's it. The server speaks stdio and needs no configuration, credentials, or internet access.
Running from source (before the npm package is published, or to hack on it): clone this repo, run
npm install && npm run build, then point your client at it with"command": "node", "args": ["/absolute/path/to/forecast-mcp/dist/index.js"].
Tools
Tool | What it answers |
| How long will the whole project take? (Monte Carlo over per-task 3-point estimates) |
| What will it cost, with contingency? (Monte Carlo over cost line items) |
| When will it be done, from our actual throughput? (flow-based, "no estimates") |
| Quick analytical 3-point estimate + confidence levels (instant, no simulation) |
| Which tasks drive the uncertainty? (tornado-chart data) |
Every tool takes optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic inputs (except forecast_completion, which uses throughput history) and returns both a human-readable summary and structured JSON.
Distributions
forecast_duration, forecast_cost, and sensitivity_analysis accept a distribution:
pert(default) - beta-PERT, the project-management standard; weights the most-likely value.triangular- simple, bounded.normal- symmetric bell curve (std dev derived from the range).lognormal- right-skewed; models "usually fine, occasionally very late".uniform- flat between optimistic and pessimistic.
You can also override the distribution per item.
Reproducibility
Every tool accepts an optional seed and defaults to a fixed seed, so the same inputs always produce the same forecast. Change the seed to explore alternate random streams.
Deploying remotely (Streamable HTTP)
npx forecast-mcp is stdio-only, which is fine for a local client but can't be reached over a network. The same binary also speaks Streamable HTTP, so it can run as a standalone deployable service (Docker, Render, Fly, Railway, Cloud Run, a VM, etc.) that any remote MCP client can call.
One entry point, two transports - node dist/index.js picks the transport at runtime:
No
PORTand noMCP_TRANSPORTset -> stdio (the default, used bynpx forecast-mcp).PORTset (most PaaS platforms set this automatically), orMCP_TRANSPORT=http-> Streamable HTTP, served atPOST /mcp, with aGET /healthzhealth check.
The HTTP server is stateless: every request builds a fresh server instance (sessionIdGenerator: undefined, the pattern the MCP SDK recommends for this case). That's safe here because every forecast-mcp tool is a pure function - there is no session state to preserve between requests, so nothing is lost by not keeping one.
Run it locally over HTTP
npm run build
npm run start:http # MCP_TRANSPORT=http PORT=3000 node dist/index.js
curl http://localhost:3000/healthzDocker
docker build -t forecast-mcp .
docker run -p 3000:3000 forecast-mcpThe image always runs in HTTP mode (that is the point of containerizing it); most platforms inject their own PORT at deploy time, which overrides the image's default of 3000.
Environment variables (HTTP mode only)
Variable | Default | Purpose |
|
| Port to listen on. Setting this alone is enough to switch to HTTP mode. |
| (unset) | Set to |
|
| Interface to bind. |
| (unset) | Comma-separated list of allowed |
Security note
These tools are read-only pure computations with no filesystem, network, or credential access, so the blast radius of an unauthenticated call is low. Still, the server itself has no built-in authentication - if you expose it beyond a trusted network, put it behind a reverse proxy or gateway that handles auth, and set MCP_ALLOWED_HOSTS to suppress the DNS-rebinding warning.
Examples
forecast_duration
{
"tasks": [
{ "name": "design", "optimistic": 2, "mostLikely": 4, "pessimistic": 8 },
{ "name": "build", "optimistic": 5, "mostLikely": 10, "pessimistic": 30 },
{ "name": "test", "optimistic": 1, "mostLikely": 3, "pessimistic": 6 }
],
"unit": "days",
"target": 25
}returns P50/P80/P90/P95, mean, standard deviation, a distribution sparkline, and probabilityWithinTarget (~0.84).
forecast_completion ("when will it be done?")
{
"throughputSamples": [4, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6],
"backlog": 40,
"periodLabel": "sprint",
"startDate": "2026-07-13",
"periodDays": 14
}bootstraps future sprints from your last six and returns how many sprints (and which calendar dates) it will likely take to clear 40 items. Add splitRate to model scope creep.
sensitivity_analysis ranks the tasks by how much each one contributes to the total variance, so you know where tightening an estimate actually moves the needle.
Development
npm install
npm run build # compile TypeScript to dist/
npm test # build + run the vitest suite
npm run inspect # open the MCP Inspector against the built serverThe forecasting logic lives in src/engine/ (pure, dependency-free functions) and is exercised directly by the test suite; the tools in src/tools/ are thin MCP wrappers.
How it works
Seeded PRNG (
mulberry32) for reproducible trials.Beta-PERT sampling via two Gamma draws (Marsaglia-Tsang); triangular, normal (Box-Muller), lognormal, and uniform samplers included.
Per-iteration line items are summed into a project total; percentiles are computed by linear interpolation over the sorted sample.
sensitivity_analysiscorrelates each item's draws with the total (Pearson) and reports each item's share of variance.pert_estimateis a closed-form cross-check (its mean matches the simulation's mean to within a fraction of a unit).
License
MIT - see LICENSE.
Available Tools
5 toolsforecast_completionForecast delivery date from throughput (Monte Carlo)ARead-onlyIdempotent
Answer 'when will it be done?' from historical throughput instead of per-task estimates. Give the number of items completed in each recent period (e.g. stories per sprint) and the remaining backlog; the tool bootstraps future periods to forecast how many periods are needed to clear the backlog. Returns P50/P80/P90/P95 in periods, and calendar dates when a start date and period length are supplied. Optionally model scope creep with splitRate.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | PRNG seed. Fixed by default so results are reproducible; change it to explore alternate random streams. | |
| backlog | Yes | Number of remaining items to complete (or the low end of a range). | |
| splitRate | No | Scope-creep factor: expected new items created per completed item (0 = fixed scope, 0.1 = 10% growth). | |
| startDate | No | Optional ISO start date (YYYY-MM-DD) to translate periods into calendar dates. | |
| iterations | No | Number of Monte Carlo iterations (100..200000). | |
| periodDays | No | Calendar days per period, used with startDate to compute completion dates. | |
| backlogHigh | No | Optional high end of the backlog range. If set, backlog is sampled uniformly between `backlog` and `backlogHigh` (models scope uncertainty). | |
| periodLabel | No | Label for one throughput period (e.g. sprint, week). | period |
| distribution | No | Probability distribution for the estimate. 'pert' (beta-PERT) is the project-management default. | pert |
| targetPeriods | No | Optional target number of periods. Returns the probability of finishing within it. | |
| throughputSamples | Yes | Historical items completed per period (e.g. [5, 8, 3, 6, 7]). Sampled with replacement to model future periods. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| max | Yes | |
| min | Yes | |
| mean | Yes | |
| seed | Yes | |
| stdDev | Yes | |
| histogram | Yes | |
| iterations | Yes | |
| percentiles | Yes | |
| periodLabel | Yes | |
| targetPeriods | No | |
| completionDates | No | |
| scopeCreepCapped | Yes | True if any run hit the internal period cap (usually runaway scope creep). |
| probabilityWithinTarget | No |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
Annotations already declare readOnly/idempotent/closed-world, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds real behavioral value: it discloses the bootstrap mechanism, the percentile outputs (P50/P80/P90/P95) and the condition under which calendar dates appear, plus the optional splitRate scope-creep modeling.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Three tight sentences, front-loaded with the question it answers, then mechanism, then outputs, then the optional parameter. No filler and each sentence carries distinct information.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
For an 11-parameter tool with a full output schema, the description covers the core mental model (inputs, bootstrap, outputs, scope creep) adequately. It omits discussion of distribution choices and iteration counts, but those are fully specified in the schema and annotations already cover safety.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Schema description coverage is 100%, so every parameter is already documented in the schema. The description only gestures at throughputSamples, backlog, and splitRate at a conceptual level, adding no syntax or format detail beyond the schema; baseline 3 is correct.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
States a specific verb+resource ('forecast how many periods are needed to clear the backlog') and frames the exact question it answers ('when will it be done?'). It distinguishes itself from estimate-based siblings by contrasting 'historical throughput instead of per-task estimates', though it does not name forecast_duration/pert_estimate explicitly.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Specifies the required inputs (throughput per recent period + remaining backlog) that select this tool over per-task estimate approaches, and notes the optional start date/period length that unlocks calendar output. No explicit when-not or named alternative, so it stops short of a 5.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
forecast_costForecast total cost / budget (Monte Carlo)ARead-onlyIdempotent
Run a Monte Carlo simulation over a list of cost line items, each with an optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic amount, to produce a probabilistic forecast of the TOTAL budget. Returns P50/P80/P90/P95, mean, standard deviation, and a distribution shape. Optionally give a budget to get the probability of coming in at or under it. Ideal for building a contingency-aware estimate instead of a single point number.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | PRNG seed. Fixed by default so results are reproducible; change it to explore alternate random streams. | |
| unit | No | Currency or unit label, used only for display (e.g. EUR, USD, CHF). | EUR |
| items | Yes | Cost line items that are summed into a total budget. | |
| budget | No | Optional budget cap (same unit as the estimates). Returns the probability of coming in at or under it. | |
| iterations | No | Number of Monte Carlo iterations (100..200000). | |
| distribution | No | Probability distribution for the estimate. 'pert' (beta-PERT) is the project-management default. | pert |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| max | Yes | |
| min | Yes | |
| mean | Yes | |
| seed | Yes | |
| unit | Yes | Unit of the forecast values (e.g. days, EUR). |
| budget | No | |
| stdDev | Yes | |
| histogram | Yes | |
| iterations | Yes | |
| percentiles | Yes | Map of percentile label (e.g. '80') to value. |
| distribution | Yes | |
| probabilityWithinBudget | No | Probability (0..1) of coming in at or under `budget`. |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
Annotations already establish readOnly/idempotent/closed-world safety, and the description adds real behavioral value: it discloses the percentiles returned, the distribution shape output, and the conditional behavior when `budget` is supplied. It stops short of discussing iteration cost or runtime, but the safety profile is well covered.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Three sentences, each earning its place: what it does, what it returns, and when to prefer it. Purpose is front-loaded before the outputs and the use-case note.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
For a complex simulation tool with one required parameter, a full schema, and an output schema, the description supplies everything an agent needs to decide and invoke correctly; return-value detail is properly left to the output schema.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description goes beyond it by explaining the semantic intent of the optimistic/most-likely/pessimistic triple (a three-point estimate summed into a total) and the meaning of the optional budget cap. Reproducibility of the seed is left to the schema.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
States a specific verb and resource ('Run a Monte Carlo simulation over a list of cost line items... probabilistic forecast of the TOTAL budget') and enumerates the outputs (P50/P80/P90/P95, mean, stdev, distribution shape). This clearly separates it from the sibling forecast_duration/forecast_completion tools, which forecast other quantities.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Gives a clear use context ('Ideal for building a contingency-aware estimate instead of a single point number') and explains the optional `budget` use case, but never references siblings like pert_estimate or sensitivity_analysis, so no explicit when-not guidance.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
forecast_durationForecast project duration (Monte Carlo)ARead-onlyIdempotent
Run a Monte Carlo simulation over a list of tasks, each with an optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic duration, to produce a probabilistic forecast of the TOTAL project duration. Returns P50/P80/P90/P95, mean, standard deviation, and a distribution shape. Optionally give a target to get the probability of finishing within it. Use this instead of guessing a single deadline: it turns three-point estimates into calibrated confidence levels. Tasks are summed (run in series).
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | PRNG seed. Fixed by default so results are reproducible; change it to explore alternate random streams. | |
| unit | No | Unit label for the estimates, used only for display (e.g. days, hours, weeks). | days |
| tasks | Yes | The tasks whose durations are summed into a project total. | |
| target | No | Optional target duration (same unit as the estimates). Returns the probability of finishing within it. | |
| iterations | No | Number of Monte Carlo iterations (100..200000). | |
| distribution | No | Probability distribution for the estimate. 'pert' (beta-PERT) is the project-management default. | pert |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| max | Yes | |
| min | Yes | |
| mean | Yes | |
| seed | Yes | |
| unit | Yes | Unit of the forecast values (e.g. days, EUR). |
| stdDev | Yes | |
| target | No | |
| histogram | Yes | |
| iterations | Yes | |
| percentiles | Yes | Map of percentile label (e.g. '80') to value. |
| distribution | Yes | |
| probabilityWithinTarget | No | Probability (0..1) of finishing within `target`. |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
With readOnly/idempotent/closed-world annotations already covered, the description adds genuinely useful behavior: results are a serial sum (no parallelism modeled), the fixed default seed makes runs reproducible, and specific outputs (P50/P80/P90/P95, mean, stdev) are named. It does not contradict the annotations and surfaces the key modeling assumption.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Front-loads the action and output, then adds the value proposition and the crucial serial-summing caveat. Every sentence carries information; nothing is redundant filler.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
An output schema exists, so the brief return summary suffices; annotations cover the safety profile; and the description supplies the one thing an agent could otherwise miss (tasks are run in series). Complete enough to invoke correctly without opening the schema.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Schema coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all six parameters thoroughly. The description only lightly reinforces `target` ('get the probability of finishing within it') and the three-point estimate shape, adding little beyond what the schema text provides, so the baseline of 3 applies.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
States a specific verb+resource: 'Run a Monte Carlo simulation over a list of tasks ... to produce a probabilistic forecast of the TOTAL project duration.' The scope ('Tasks are summed (run in series)') is concrete and separates it from cost-oriented cousins, but it never names or contrasts the closest sibling (forecast_completion), so differentiation is only implicit.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Gives a clear when-to-use rationale and an alternative: 'Use this instead of guessing a single deadline.' It also implies the precondition (three-point estimates per task). It stops short of routing the agent away from sibling tools such as pert_estimate or forecast_completion, so no explicit exclusions.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
pert_estimatePERT three-point estimate (analytical)ARead-onlyIdempotent
Compute a classic PERT estimate from tasks with optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic values. Returns each task's expected value and standard deviation, the rolled-up project mean and standard deviation, and the value achievable at each confidence level (via a normal approximation). Instant and deterministic - use it for a quick estimate or to cross-check a Monte Carlo forecast. Assumes tasks are independent and summed.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| unit | No | Unit label for display. | days |
| tasks | Yes | ||
| confidence | No | Confidence levels (percent) at which to report achievable values. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| unit | Yes | |
| items | Yes | |
| projectMean | Yes | |
| projectStdDev | Yes | |
| projectVariance | Yes | |
| confidenceLevels | Yes |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
Adds substantial context beyond the readOnly/idempotent annotations: it is 'instant and deterministic', uses a 'normal approximation', and assumes 'tasks are independent and summed'. These methodology and assumption disclosures materially shape how an agent should trust and apply the result.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Three tight sentences with zero waste: capability, outputs, and usage context are front-loaded, followed by the key independence/sum assumption. Every clause earns its place.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
An output schema exists so return values need not be detailed, yet the description still summarizes them usefully. Combined with the stated assumptions and determinism, an agent has everything needed to invoke and interpret this tool correctly.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
The description clarifies that tasks carry optimistic/most-likely/pessimistic values and that confidence levels produce 'value achievable at each confidence level', adding meaning beyond the schema. With 67% schema coverage the 'unit' parameter is not elaborated, so it is slightly short of complete.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
States a specific verb and resource ('Compute a classic PERT estimate') and names the exact inputs (optimistic/most-likely/pessimistic). It also contrasts itself against the Monte Carlo forecast sibling and the analytical approach, so an agent can distinguish it from the forecast_* family.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Explicitly says to 'use it for a quick estimate or to cross-check a Monte Carlo forecast', giving a clear selection context against the alternative predictive tool. It stops short of naming the sibling tools directly or stating when-not to use it, so it falls just under full marks.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
sensitivity_analysisSensitivity analysis (variance drivers)ARead-onlyIdempotent
Identify which tasks contribute most to the uncertainty in a project total. Runs the Monte Carlo simulation and, for each task, computes its correlation with the total and its share of the total variance. Returns tasks ranked from biggest to smallest driver, so you know where reducing estimate uncertainty or de-risking the work has the most impact. This is the data behind a tornado chart.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | PRNG seed. Fixed by default so results are reproducible; change it to explore alternate random streams. | |
| unit | No | days | |
| tasks | Yes | At least two tasks (a single task is trivially 100%). | |
| iterations | No | Number of Monte Carlo iterations (100..200000). | |
| distribution | No | Probability distribution for the estimate. 'pert' (beta-PERT) is the project-management default. | pert |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| seed | Yes | |
| unit | Yes | |
| drivers | Yes | |
| iterations | Yes | |
| totalStdDev | Yes | |
| distribution | Yes |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
With readOnlyHint, openWorldHint=false, and idempotentHint already declared, the description adds real behavioral context: it performs a Monte Carlo simulation, computes correlation and variance share per task, and ranks results. It does not mention the reproducible-by-default seed behavior (left to the schema) or the compute cost of large iteration counts, but it goes meaningfully beyond the annotations.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Purpose is front-loaded in the first clause, followed by mechanism, output shape, and a memorable framing metaphor. Four tight sentences with no filler, each earning its place.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
An output schema exists, so return values need not be explained, and the description covers purpose, mechanism, and output ranking adequately. It could note prerequisites (minimum two tasks, distribution choice) that live only in the schema, but nothing essential for correct invocation is missing.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Schema description coverage is 80% and the schema already documents seed, unit, iterations, distribution, and the nested task fields in detail. The description adds no parameter-level syntax or format guidance beyond what the schema provides, so the baseline 3 applies.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
The description states a specific verb+resource (identify which tasks drive uncertainty in a project total) and explains the mechanism (runs Monte Carlo, computes per-task correlation and variance share). It returns ranked drivers and even frames the output ('the data behind a tornado chart'), which clearly separates it from the forecast_* and pert_estimate siblings.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
It conveys the value proposition ('so you know where reducing estimate uncertainty or de-risking the work has the most impact'), which implies when to reach for it. However, it never names an alternative or states when NOT to use it versus forecast_duration, forecast_cost, or pert_estimate, leaving the routing decision to inference.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
Tool Schema Changelog
Recent tool additions, removals, and schema changes observed during successful MCP inspections.
5 tool updates
v0.1.0- First observed
forecast_completion - First observed
forecast_cost - First observed
forecast_duration - First observed
pert_estimate - First observed
sensitivity_analysis
TDQS
Scored across 5 tools
Each tool has a distinct purpose: duration, cost, throughput-based completion, deterministic PERT, and sensitivity/variance contribution. Although forecast_duration and pert_estimate both estimate duration, the descriptions clearly distinguish Monte Carlo vs deterministic normal approximation, and forecast_duration vs forecast_cost differ by resource type.
All names use consistent snake_case, which is readable and predictable. However, three tools follow a forecast_ object pattern while pert_estimate and sensitivity_analysis use different noun-based patterns, so it is not a uniform verb_noun convention throughout.
Five tools is well-scoped for a project-forecasting server. Each tool covers a genuinely different estimation method or output, with no redundant or filler tools.
The surface covers duration, cost, completion timeline from throughput, quick deterministic estimation, and uncertainty drivers. Together these address the core lifecycle of probabilistic project forecasting with no obvious missing operation.
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