Prediction market friction tracker

Structured KYC, fee, and withdrawal data across 12 prediction-market venues, plus a change feed for when those terms move and a natural-language "which venue is best for X" recommendation tool. Built for AI agents that need to check execution friction before routing a trade — not for humans clicking around a dashboard.

Live now: https://prediction-friction-tracker-production.up.railway.app

For agents: three ways in

1. Plain HTTP — GET /friction/venues, GET /friction/venue/{slug}, GET /friction/changes?since=<ISO8601>. Full OpenAPI spec at /openapi.json, interactive docs at /docs, agent-readable summary at /llms.txt.

2. MCP — a streamable-HTTP MCP server mounted at /mcp/, exposing list_venues, get_venue, recommend_venue, and get_changes_info as tools. Point any MCP-compatible client at the /mcp/ URL directly.

3. x402 — /friction/changes (the time-sensitive change feed) is gated by the x402 protocol: unpaid requests get a real 402 with a payment challenge; pay $0.05 USDC on Base mainnet and retry to get the data. This is live, verified end-to-end with real money, not a demo — see api.py for the CDP-facilitator wiring.

Related MCP server: Parlay

Endpoints

Every record carries a confidence field: verified (spot-checked or high-confidence extraction), stale (source was unreachable, showing a cached value), or unconfirmed (LLM extraction was ambiguous). Treat unconfirmed as a lead to verify against the venue directly, not a fact to trade on.

MCP tools

• list_venues(confidence) — browse/filter the current snapshot.

• get_venue(slug) — one venue's full data.

• recommend_venue(query) — free-text "which venue is best for lowest fees on high-frequency trading" / "I don't want to do KYC" / "API access without a wallet" style questions, reasoned over the current dataset. Says so explicitly rather than guessing when a query depends on data this tracker doesn't have (liquidity, volume, spread, uptime).

• get_changes_info() — describes the paid change feed (URL, price) without reimplementing it for free.

What's here

Running it locally

pip install -r requirements.txt
python test_pipeline_logic.py      # no API key needed, proves storage/diff logic
python test_recommend_logic.py     # no API key needed, proves recommendation logic
export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...
python run_pipeline.py             # real scrape -> extract -> store, all 12 venues
uvicorn api:app --reload           # boots the API on localhost:8000

Then in another terminal:

curl http://localhost:8000/friction/venues
curl http://localhost:8000/friction/venue/kalshi
curl "http://localhost:8000/friction/changes?since=2020-01-01T00:00:00Z"

See CLAUDE.md for environment quirks, Claude API usage notes, and the data-quality/confidence model in more depth.

Informational only — not financial or legal advice. Verify directly with the venue before acting on any figure returned here.