Persona MCP

# Decision Frameworks - Comprehensive Guide ## Strategic Decision Frameworks ### OODA Loop (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) ``` ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ ┌──────────┐ ┌──────────┐ ┌──────────┐ │ │ │ OBSERVE │───►│ ORIENT │───►│ DECIDE │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ Gather │ │ Analyze │ │ Choose │ │ │ │ data │ │ context │ │ action │ │ │ └──────────┘ └──────────┘ └──────────┘ │ │ ▲ │ │ │ │ ▼ │ │ │ ┌──────────┐ │ │ └──────────│ ACT │◄─────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ │ Execute │ │ │ decision │ │ └──────────┘ │ │ │ Speed of cycle = Competitive advantage │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ``` **Application:** - Military: Faster OODA loop beats opponent - Business: Rapid market response - Personal: Agile decision-making --- ### RAPID Framework ``` RAPID = Recommend, Agree, Perform, Input, Decide R - RECOMMEND │ Who proposes the decision? │ └── Builds business case, gathers data │ A - AGREE │ Who must sign off? │ └── Can veto but must engage constructively │ P - PERFORM │ Who executes? │ └── Responsible for implementation │ I - INPUT │ Who provides information? │ └── Consulted for expertise, no veto │ D - DECIDE Who makes final call? └── Single point of accountability ``` **Example Application:** | Role | Person | Responsibility | |------|--------|----------------| | R | Product Manager | Recommend feature | | A | Legal, Security | Must approve | | P | Engineering Team | Build feature | | I | Customer Success | Provide feedback | | D | VP Product | Final decision | --- ### Cynefin Framework ``` COMPLEX COMPLICATED (Emergent) (Good Practice) ┌─────────────────────┬─────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ Probe │ Sense │ │ Sense │ Analyze │ │ Respond │ Respond │ │ │ │ │ Enable emergence │ Apply expertise │ │ │ │ ├─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┤ │ │ │ │ Act │ Sense │ │ Sense │ Categorize │ │ Respond │ Respond │ │ │ │ │ Novel approaches │ Best practice │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────┴─────────────────────┘ CHAOTIC CLEAR/OBVIOUS (Novel) (Best Practice) ┌─────────────────┐ │ DISORDER │ │ (Confused) │ └─────────────────┘ ``` **Domain Characteristics:** | Domain | Relationship | Approach | Example | |--------|--------------|----------|---------| | Clear | Obvious | Best practice | Standard procedures | | Complicated | Requires analysis | Expert opinion | Engineering problems | | Complex | Emergent patterns | Experiments | Market dynamics | | Chaotic | No patterns | Act immediately | Crisis management | --- ### Eisenhower Matrix ``` URGENT NOT URGENT ┌─────────────────────┬─────────────────────┐ │ │ │ IMPORTANT│ DO FIRST │ SCHEDULE │ │ │ │ │ Crises │ Long-term goals │ │ Deadlines │ Relationship │ │ Problems │ Planning │ │ │ │ ├─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┤ │ │ │ NOT IMPORTANT DELEGATE │ ELIMINATE │ │ │ │ │ Interruptions │ Time wasters │ │ Some meetings │ Busy work │ │ Some emails │ Escape activities │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────┴─────────────────────┘ ``` --- ## Analytical Decision Frameworks ### Decision Matrix (Weighted Scoring) ``` STEP 1: List options and criteria STEP 2: Assign weights to criteria (must sum to 100%) STEP 3: Score each option on each criterion (1-10) STEP 4: Calculate weighted scores STEP 5: Compare and decide Example: Technology Platform Selection ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Criteria Weight Option A Option B Option C ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Cost 25% 8 (2.0) 6 (1.5) 4 (1.0) Performance 30% 7 (2.1) 9 (2.7) 8 (2.4) Scalability 20% 6 (1.2) 8 (1.6) 9 (1.8) Support 15% 9 (1.35) 7 (1.05) 5 (0.75) Integration 10% 7 (0.7) 8 (0.8) 6 (0.6) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── TOTAL 100% 7.35 7.65 6.55 ▲ Winner: Option B ``` --- ### Pre-Mortem Analysis ``` TRADITIONAL: Plan → Execute → Post-mortem (if failed) PRE-MORTEM: Plan → Imagine failure → Identify risks → Mitigate PROCESS: 1. "Imagine it's [future date] and this project has failed spectacularly." 2. Each team member independently lists reasons for failure 3. Share and consolidate failure modes 4. Prioritize by likelihood × impact 5. Develop mitigation strategies for top risks EXAMPLE OUTPUT: ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ FAILURE MODE │ LIKELIHOOD │ IMPACT │ RISK │ ├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Key engineer leaves │ HIGH │ HIGH │ ● │ │ Scope creep delays launch │ MEDIUM │ HIGH │ ● │ │ Integration issues │ MEDIUM │ MEDIUM │ ◐ │ │ User adoption lower expected │ LOW │ HIGH │ ◐ │ │ Budget overrun │ MEDIUM │ LOW │ ○ │ └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ``` --- ### Six Thinking Hats ``` WHITE HAT - Facts & Information │ What data do we have? │ What data do we need? │ RED HAT - Emotions & Intuition │ How do we feel about this? │ What's our gut reaction? │ BLACK HAT - Critical Judgment │ What could go wrong? │ What are the risks? │ YELLOW HAT - Optimistic View │ What are the benefits? │ What's the best case? │ GREEN HAT - Creative Thinking │ What are alternative ideas? │ How can we innovate? │ BLUE HAT - Process Control How should we organize thinking? What's the next step? ``` **Meeting Application:** 1. Blue: Set agenda and goals (5 min) 2. White: Review facts objectively (10 min) 3. Green: Generate ideas freely (15 min) 4. Yellow: Explore benefits (10 min) 5. Black: Identify risks (10 min) 6. Red: Gut check on options (5 min) 7. Blue: Summarize and decide (5 min) --- ## Risk Assessment Frameworks ### Risk Matrix ``` IMPACT LOW MEDIUM HIGH ┌─────────┬─────────┬─────────┐ HIGH │ MEDIUM │ HIGH │CRITICAL │ │ ● │ ● │ ● │ LIKELIHOOD─────────┼─────────┼─────────┤ MEDIUM │ LOW │ MEDIUM │ HIGH │ │ ○ │ ● │ ● │ ├─────────┼─────────┼─────────┤ LOW │ LOW │ LOW │ MEDIUM │ │ ○ │ ○ │ ● │ └─────────┴─────────┴─────────┘ Response by Level: ───────────────────────────────────── CRITICAL: Immediate action required HIGH: Active management needed MEDIUM: Monitor and plan response LOW: Accept or periodic review ``` --- ## Quick Decision Rules ### 10/10/10 Rule ``` Before deciding, ask: - How will I feel about this in 10 MINUTES? - How will I feel about this in 10 MONTHS? - How will I feel about this in 10 YEARS? ``` ### Reversibility Test (Jeff Bezos) ``` TYPE 1 DECISIONS (Irreversible) ├── Take time ├── Gather data ├── Seek input └── Decide carefully TYPE 2 DECISIONS (Reversible) ├── Decide quickly ├── Delegate ├── Learn from results └── Adjust as needed ``` ### 2-Minute Rule ``` If a decision: - Takes less than 2 minutes to make - Has low stakes - Is easily reversible → JUST DECIDE NOW. Don't schedule a meeting. ``` --- ## Expert Activation ``` @strategic-oracle @strategy-consultant @leadership-coach @executive-coach ``` or describe your decision challenge