ChromaDB MCP Server

recording in progress hello and welcome to where's the trade it is the commodity cycle session for Thursday October 2nd 2025 I'm Patrick Ceresna joined by my seal and welcome everyone to what for many members is their favorite session of the week where we take a deep dive into the commodity markets obviously some super hot markets and others that are setting up and lots to talk about let's not waste any time let's jump straight into it so let's start off with the S&P 500 and it's one of these scenarios where this rally has been relentless now have we legitimately broken the higher highs where the market can't trade right back down to the bottom of the trade range well it can but I love using the same analogy many of you appreciate it it's always good to step back and reflect on the simple thing of you know are the bulls or the bears actually in possession of the ball and in this situation the bulls remain in control of the trend in a sense that they're in possession they buy all dips everything is working but as we approach these previous highs the puzzle to solve is that are we in the midst of something like here where in the end we've already approached you know the upper boundary of the market and in the end when we reflect on it a month or two from now it will be a heavy resistance level even if it temporarily broke to a higher high or are we going to see a new full bull impulse and I was highlighting in the macro look two things I want to watch a Nvidia and you can observe here Nvidia broke to a 52 we can you high out of this trade range and hasn't given back that breakout in two days or at least this is the second day so that is a plus for the bulls now on on the other side of that exit is the XLF which is the financials and the financials have been in an extraordinary bull run they were on this upside up about 30 percent the stock market up up at 35 so they I wouldn't necessarily say that they had a huge outperformance but they were more or less the beta one asset like if I told you this was a chart of the S&P 500 you'd almost believe me and what you're observing here is is that financials have a lost momentum relative to the index and will it diverge is I think important because financials are tend to be a very important leadership group an important part of any bull market and so you can see we have are torn the mega cap leader general is broken to new highs and the excitement continues on the the bull front and but yet some things are concerning will the S&P sorry will the financials hold these moving averages and and not break down is one of the interesting things to to observe the dollar is this a bull flag you know I'll I shall even put on a four-hour chart so it's much clear I want to highlight that the while we saw the US dollar index basically finish a measured move as it zigzagged its way higher we now have a scenario where we've more or less seen on the dollar it 50 percent retrace and the the puzzle to solve is that was this just a clean 50 percent retrace before a US dollar continuation to the upside now this is um in my opinion the classic pain trade why because it is so consensus to be uh bearish the dollar uh you know you heard how many macro voices guests come on uh in a row including uh the release of today um uh the 500th episode with lynn alden uh spoiler alert and uh and essentially uh you'll see the same story i mean ultimately the backdrop of why the US dollar can deteriorate or weaken is there uh but if you think about almost every trade uh everything from gold ripping to the upside to this extraordinary rip in emerging markets uh everything has been in the backdrop and a huge benefactor of a weak US dollar cycle and the one thing what is the one thing that can happen in the markets that would literally be the monkey wrench that could uh basically be a disruptor to almost everything and that would be a US dollar rally now that does that in any way make it a guarantee absolutely not and this is why we just have to observe whether or not it's technically happening or not and so uh what i'm watching is obviously these highs whether that uh retracement we just pointed out uh holds and whether the dollar index surprises everyone with a move here or not if it doesn't then there's nothing there to be seen but i would view that it would be to me a big red flag if the US dollar rallied was a willet and that's uh and i think that would be a disruptor to a lot of trades that we're currently in uh on the short term so uh i want to uh just a quick note nothing much to really say on interest rates i'm going to focus on the 10-year bond uh and overall it was just a uh retracement to the 50% retracement and we're just looking whether or not uh bonds have a bull continuation pattern to the upside so let's now just focus on commodities uh for the remainder of the session uh and um and kind of uh size up what's going on now first of all gold uh flat on the day was up a little bit earlier uh i want to highlight based on that two-day little pause which is a stretch to do a measured move on but you can see even the most shortened measured move uh has a target to 4 000 but you can observe that at 3 900 we're already entering the red zone which is what i call the profit taking zone uh at the same time you know when we take a much bigger bull trend like this one you can observe the overlap of the exact same target zones just a little bit wider 3 900 on the bottom end like 4050 on the upper end uh you we have to consider this gold move to be uh in uh the later innings eighth maybe even ninth inning of the gold bull advance um does that make it bearish so should someone short sell should someone panic sell all their positions absolutely not but after every gold move tends to happen some sort of a period where gold pauses and reverts retests moving averages does all these types of things to me um inevitably gold is going to do this just like it has always done so in the past the only question is does it make it to 4 000 first with it being such a clear target uh with such momentum and such an important round number i actually think you give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that they'll pull it off and that this move will finish now but you still have to treat it in later innings and this is why we're going to talk a little bit about how to hedge these things up because on a lot of our positioning we still have uh these 2026 options which is uh uh in my opinion something where we have to balance it um uh largely because uh you know it really these options are behaving like stocks and a lot of these puts that we have are are farther away out of the money because of the extent of the rally making us have to really assess what is the best way to approach these because we've made so much money on these it would be an absolute shame uh to to have some sort of uh uh heavy uh drawdown sequence of giving back profits because we didn't do something proactively and uh and that's going to be something we'll talk about here right now quickly just on the other precious metals silver uh also finishing measured moves and i want to highlight so while this measured move and this measured move are pretty much done do we take this 48 silver price as um that where it should peak or do we leave open the window then on a weekly chart that silver has some sort of retest uh momentum to bubble blow off all the way to some of its bubble peak highs uh which is still a few dollars higher even up to ten dollars higher and this is a balancing act of of like maybe a time frame thing where well if we go back to a a daily chart maybe just maybe we might see a scenario where silver does this for a month or two and then still blasts off for another full measured move up to those levels you know the question is is that are we in a parabolic bubble where these things are going to go parabolic uh and just blow through measured moves like they don't matter or is suddenly silver uh 48 bucks going to put in its high just like the the very framework of our technical analysis thing and is this literally where it's going to fade one way or another we cannot risk giving back big portions of our gains on silver this has been a a phenomenal winner for us and uh and we just need to ensure that uh that uh you know we uh make sure we're keeping the profits and build and re-engineering some new convex way to continue to stay remain in silver without um enduring uh gut-wrenching volatility if some sort of mean reverting correction was to get underway uh same time uh just a a quick peek at uh the platinum and palladium uh you know a beautiful breakout on platinum to new highs uh this measured move uh is still has room to go right like we are only at 1600 the measured move on this thing is all the way 1800 but i want to highlight that is a very realistic upside target for this impulse so you know even if we got a 100 150 impulse towards 1700 you have to almost immediately be treating it late innings now palladium has been a beautiful trade off the fib but has reluctantly failed to break out to a fresh new high it struggles along its high and this is uh a little bit of a problem not a crazy one the measured move is to 1500 uh but here in order for this trade to remain in what i would define a healthy trend all pullbacks would need to be contained to 1200 and subsequently or that buy on dip would have to clear 52 week highs and punch this thing uh up to that 1500 target all it's still a very respectable and quite reasonable trade to assume uh that is actually uh has a good chance of happening so uh so uh that's the way i would size up the precious metals market now the gdx uh the gold miner uh position here has had uh also uh an extraordinary run uh beyond that of uh even uh a typical measured move like uh this is a parabolic rise that just kind of uh ripped through not only 127 like we're all the way at uh a uh a 161 extension which is something that i rarely see well and it's also again something quite typical uh in parabolic rises and so just such an extraordinary bull run um you know when we put on a weekly chart and really zoom out like this thing ripped through those 2011 highs like nobody's business and um and like when you really look at the sheer velocity from which this rose you have to uh at some degree or another uh respect that this has all of the characteristics uh of a bubble velocity now i mean i know we can sit there and argue till we're blue in the face but listen they're printing so much money gold is running to the upside their balance sheets are great all of that stuff yeah i get it you know what uh i love gold miners i'm not uh actually a hater um i just know when it's this easy to make money that the markets tend to not it tends to um uh at some point check your resolve uh on your willingness to stay in a trade by offering uh some huge pullback that basically attempts to shake you out of your positioning just because you get incredibly comfortable with just repetitively making money every day that a reversal becomes emotionally quite disruptive uh and you have to know that it's gonna come uh this thing is not uh some magic asset that is going to infinity and not going to pull back um and so uh you know we have some very important decisions to make on so many of our uh um kind of gold oriented positions now crude oil uh has been uh nothing short of a trade range mess and we upgraded the uso based on this idea that that breakout was real and this uh clearly is indicating that we may have been way too ambitious and trying to be too early uh into catching that move as it's proven very clearly to be a false start i mean if this moving average is not bullishly opening to the upside and it isn't making higher highs in a sequence uh we have no business being overweight crude oil uh making uh it clear that our upgrade to the uso to an overweight uh is uh could have been an outright error uh and we have to fix the error which is we'd have to uh potentially downgrade it back to either equal weight or if it break to lower low maybe even a short-term underweight while we determine what crude oil has in mind and sort things out um this has not though been a huge disruptor on energy stocks and while crude oil is uh is messing around as an underlying commodity overall most um uh of uh the energy plays i'm just gonna focus on the ones we have in our portfolio at first but you know like refiners like philip 66 all with off at 52 week highs with uh with dips coming right to moving averages valeris almost immediately reverses bullishly off of a 61.8 retest of its moving averages uh you know you take oih uh and look how quickly it reversed after that one little quick day uh drop from the other day right back up toward the highs the xop uh big green uh big green bullish engulfing candle yesterday after that quick retest of these moving averages i think you get the point that is that while oil uh is bit of a shit show um energy stocks really are playing some sort of bigger picture and this is very clearly reminiscent of the gold miner story uh where the gold miners really didn't care that gold was trading sideways when they began an epic bull run on the upside and only gold moved afterwards maybe just maybe this we have some different iteration of this where energy stocks already know what's about to play out over the next three to six months forward looking and uh they're not um reacting to every short-term little uh up or down on uh oil prices that they know uh is is highly geopolitical on the very short term nonetheless uh the energy stock story uh is uh definitely far more bullish than oil and i am not uh in any way overly concerned about our core energies equity positioning but that crude oil uso position uh does have a very big question mark beside it that uh that we have to deal with the second thing i wanted to touch on is just how bullish things are in the copper market obviously outside of freeport mcmoren uh now copper has strengthened uh towards five dollars continues to work higher but i wanted to bring to light when you look at grade a copper in london on the lme uh what you can observe is that we've already broken 250 two-week highs uh so you know while this comex copper chart looks like a complete shit show from the tariff uh risk on risk off tariff on tariff off crap that we had to go endure um which has made the technicals on uh the comex copper look incredibly sketchy but structurally global copper prices are strengthening and even if you let's look at the four hour chart on uh on uh the uh copper futures on the comex you can see all of the characteristics of bullishness which is you know it did a fibonacci retrace and jumped out to its measured move paused again jumped out to its measured moves the typical kind of behavior of buy on dips coming in retracement pockets pushing higher so copper structurally remains pretty bullish now when you take copex which is the uh copper miners etf it's uh running like uh it stole something uh just an unbelievable uh uh run in the broader and like it's almost like freeport mcmorrin didn't even dent uh this chart right uh southern copper uh has has been uh ripping to the upside finishing a measured move ivanhoe mines joined the party uh and started to beautifully turn back up tech resources with mna activity aside uh bullishly followed through on its flagging formation breaking key resistance levels so you know we have one black eye and it happens to be unfortunately the uh the luck of the draw that uh we had a mining accident on freeport that was actually quite a serious mining accident that has massively pivoted global supply chains uh and that's what's driving this short-term copper thesis uh but freeport uh the question is how long will it take to resolve itself uh before you know it's been old already fully baked into the cake and and the stock can resume to trade uh without this huge overhang on it uh ivanhoe mines took six months uh to get through its copper mine problem uh i'm not saying this one has to be six months but anyone holding their breath that this is uh any day now is going to be disappointed hence why an underweight on copper uh freeport mcmorrin is warranted as the stock individually um in the case of copper stocks it looks like a very hefty rally that uh in many ways has um a short-term overbought signals occurring on it uh the next thing i wanted to touch on was natural gas and i wanted to highlight that we had the first breakout candle out of uh what now is definitely feeling like a double bottom retest on the unl many asking well uh how why has we not then upgraded it to at least an equal weight i uh just have one saying that one day doesn't make a new trend and uh i'm i would reserve the upgrading of the unl to next week uh those of you that have much higher conviction or confidence in this breakout can already act uh in advance uh on this but this could have been a turning point now we've seen this before uh where uh where you know it pops above the moving averages for a week and then fails could this be a deja vu of course it can we can never rule it out the odds of that is never zero but when you look at everything in the uh a bigger spectrum and where we are roll then where we're going to be rolling up the uh seasonal term structure of winter gas uh this selling incredibly cheap and all of those other factors one has to think that this is a very logical place for a new bold trend to begin so will it is the puzzle to solve here don't take your eye off this one this is one that we've been we're waiting for a bottom to come in and i want to play it when you look at some of the individual names here like uh range resources beautifully uh ripping now giving a moving average crossover obviously a fib retracement would be very timely to buy a dip on you look at this beautiful breakout attempt on eqt after this long consolidation uh moving average potentially going to bullishly cross over uh a retracement back to us moving averages would be a great entry uh on this uh you could look at the sand ridges of the world where there's a beautiful flagging formation for a bull continuation pattern does this hold these moving averages already bullishly crossed are we going to get a big breakout lng like chenere uh not moving yet will be interesting to see it participate but we can death or even ovv like the former canadian in canna disappointing a little breakdown but will it be able to get back above its moving averages is something that we could uh be watching here but let's watch this nat gas story nobody's talking about it no one loves it but it's no different than oil uh no one is interested right now but maybe just maybe this is going to be where the next bull phase can actually begin from in this space um in terms of uranium uh the u308 up a dollar 15 to 83 look my view on sprout physical and or something like the yca which is the yellow kick uh on on london are far more bullish and far earlier in the innings than uh uranium stocks i want to highlight that therefore my bias right now would be to be overweight physical uranium has far less downside volatility risk uh versus the uranium names which have had a big run so the puzzle to solve here is that have we seen these uranium names uh run out of a little bit of momentum and uh this is the uh certainly we are seeing a short-term consolidation here uh and um and so to me this is uh um uh interesting uh you know for for me overall uh i i think that it could still be a midpoint so what do i mean by that well imagine for one moment that this was a triangle formation or some other type of midpoint well could there be still one more leg on the upside uh and the answer to that i mean we certainly can't rule it out like could we have this kind of a measured move punch 55 60 on the upside the probability well first of all the bull trend is still in in play that it's not like the bears have taken over here so we can't rule out still some further upside now uh even with cameco you know cameco again about a week long little pause but it's above its moving averages it's a at 52 week highs in terms of the fact that it remains trading above all of these highs and is trading above its fib zones and so you know if uh cameco blasts it off with a move to 95 it isn't a big shocker the so you know this is where we have to really assess where we have our short calls written clearly we have uh now a 95 calls sold on cameco and we just published uh the new 55 strike call on um on the november ura which puts us in a situation where once again we're uh you know capping some of the upside but i look at it purely from the convexity of the trade uh rather uh and the fact that we're resetting the asymmetry which i think is far more uh important at this moment then um uh than cutting off some of the upside what do i mean by that well let right now by the way i just noticed the ura trade we published yesterday uh that we uh that it wasn't yet executed in the um uh in the simulated account so let me just actually come in here and place this trade so we can talk through it so we have obviously the ura trading at 48 50 and we have a 25 call just to january 2026 what what i want to highlight uh this option that went from being eight dollars uh to now trading at 23 dollars a multi-bagger on the upside a very decisive profit is almost entirely literally all uh time value okay uh what we're what we're seeing is a scenario uh sorry all intrinsic value it is literally behaving like a 98 and a half cent delta and uh and so we have a scenario where uh buying or having the hedge down at 43 dollars where it was hold on let me just pull it up having for instance the hedge all the way down here at 43 dollars would mean that we would be talking about giving back over 10 percent over five dollars or five uh five dollars or five thousand dollars of the profit on that ura before the hedge would kick in and more importantly that hedge expires in two weeks imagine the devastating scenario where this thing drops all the way to 43 dollars doesn't build an intrinsic value and it's trading there on october 17th now we have a scenario where building a brand new november hedge would be incredibly expensive and um and at the same time uh uh we wouldn't have captured anything on the hedge from october so to me it just makes sense with such a high delta position to actually take the risk of having to roll the covered call up at the 52 strike 55 strike if we did so that we're talking about now raising this hedge out to november right at the money like a 47 bucks right here where that red line is we're not going to give any of the profit back and yet we're going to have at this juncture almost seven dollars of upside all the way to 55 bucks before we run into the same problem where we're making too much money too quickly and we have to take a loss on the short call to open up further upside i think that this is the only logical way to play an option with such a high delta that is literally behaving like the underlying equity at a period when there's such clear momentum and so uh this role is something that we did here uh on this caller and uh and we're rolling that up in there so nonetheless uh you know we'll talk about the gold miners here in a moment but uh but with uranium we need to keep these moving the the bigger problem we have with a lot of our callers on whether the gold miners or or even cameco is october 17th is now only two weeks away and no market corrections in gold or uranium have yet begun and that is a problem where the hedge that we believe we have may be uh uh the wrong duration at this juncture in that a correction has a very good chance if it was to get underway lasting a month or more and the hedge from october 17th expiry no longer has the duration to be able to capture uh and be able to have us hedged throughout that entire pullback and that is something we need to deal with whether today tomorrow or early next week i i do have a lot of issues with us carrying hedges only to october 17th at this point um on many of these so let me just highlight a few of the other things including some of the trades that uh that we did um uh one we uh let's let's touch on uh btu so the coal play uh what an absolutely great move uh congratulations to all of you that uh that uh captured uh um this uh this upside move on this it's uh it certainly has been uh a great uh run on the upside i mean uh this option going from four bucks to 15 has been a fantastic uh grab and we felt we had to deal with this once again with um with having to put in a collar but look how quickly we're now in a situation where uh you know we have a november 30 strike call and just in two days this thing goes ripping from uh 26 and change to being two dollars higher at 28 and change i mean again uh i always love to say the saying i wish this curse upon all my members where uh you are always running into problem with your short calls because you're just making too much money too quickly on your underlying definitely a curse i wish upon all of you uh it's it's a horrible problem to have but it's like we published this earlier this week and we may uh by tomorrow need to already roll up this btu position again right like uh it's it's crazy that we find ourselves in that situation uh another uh one uh in a similar situation is uh our position uh that we just published on uh for um uh sbsw now this one here is not got the same kind of gusto as uh as the cold play suddenly does uh but uh we have a scenario now where uh we felt that after catching a move from eight bucks to eleven dollars so quickly uh that this also warranted uh caller and so we locked in uh the ten dollar price level where the previous high was and continued to leave upside all the way to 14 bucks on there now mass i know that we're already like at 320 here um is there something that you wanted me to address because i want to also make sure i focus on highlighting what we need to do on some of these gold plays is there something that you need me to quickly address uh we can finish that off because we have just a bunch of questions from members um if you want to stay a bit longer but yeah perfect well i can definitely stay a little bit longer because i think this is a really important session and we we have to really kind of make sure it's crystal clear to members what what's going on here i want to specifically uh now speak to you know some of our different uh um you know positionings that we have in um everything from the gdx our gold mining position again we're in a situation where uh what a what an extraordinary win where you know we took our gdx position from a six dollar level to 36 bucks just an absolutely amazing run on the upside on that gdx and now we uh ended up having to uh to temporarily reopen up the upside but we find ourselves in a situation where uh you know having a protective put down at 70 is now again almost 10 percent below where the market is and again uh we're in a situation where it only expires in two weeks i mean so we're in a situation here where once again we will need to reconstruct a hedge we're in a crazy situation where we really can't roll into a 2027 easily at a market peak and so here we are four months away from uh the january uh 2026 expiration the tactical adjusting role to add an extra year onto the leap needs to occur during a retracement and there is zero retracement in sight uh at this moment this leap is literally behaving as the stock a 99.3 cent delta uh like uh we are we are virtually it's an equity there's no time value left in this leap uh and so we have to treat it like a stock position and therefore uh having a collar that is tighter even if it comes at a cost is uh is uh very necessary and uh that's not much different with silver uh you know um this uh this silver positioning we have a january 28 call when we're at 30 we're at 42 bucks on the underlying and so again it's a delta of one they're not even giving you a 99 cent delta this is literally a synthetic equity position that we now have made all this money all of you saw how silver finished a measured move and yet you know uh we do have a uh a situation where uh the the hedge is only out to october and lies 34 dollars eight dollars lower than where uh slv currently is we simply can't are not hedged that hedge is really useless does everyone get that like that hedge will literally do nothing if silver started to correct here and um and so we have to completely go and re-hedge this all up this and this has to be done uh or uh uh very quickly in terms of the next couple trading sessions not two weeks from now and especially after slv and silver are finishing these measured moods the upside so um so expect more trade alerts this is a time where thing like now those of you some of you may feel that you just should pull the plug on this now what is it that i would personally do if you were to elect to temporarily um uh you know take your profits forget hedging just walk away well if you are in that camp by the way we aren't going to do that because we try to demonstrate being persistently invested what we may do is push gold and silver into an underweight uh just to demonstrate the fact that we don't see any asymmetry in having large positioning um uh but uh if one of you was to take profits uh the single best thing to do is to uh buy further upside through a bull call spread so for instance if you turned around and did a 44 by 48 it would cost you basically 80 cents for a four dollar wide bull call spread to november by you uh outlaying an 80 cent cost on let's say the slv as an example what you've done uh let's say on slv is you said i will continue over the next month to participate on the next four dollars of the upside of the slv if it keeps ripping but you're now what you've done by taking all of your profits off the table you only have 80 cents of the profits that you spent to buy that debit spread upside now you're completely um uh uh have uh leveraged your profits and taken all of these amazing profits off the table and you won't suffer fomo because if silver keeps going after you sold you'll keep making money from the spread and so it's like a consolation for the fact that you know that you you want to take the correct action and profit take when measured moves are done but at the same time you are just going to take away all of that anxiety that the moment i sell it i know silver is going to go another 10 which is entirely possible right and so uh so this is the way that i would deal with it for any of you that are taking that approach all right mass all right let's get into some of these questions first ones we have to touch on was uh george asking about his warehauser 2020 leaps that just came available what is the advantages advantage of going that far well okay uh what what you're dealing with uh is a scenario where those leaps are acceptable if uh you have zero intention of being tactical around them uh so uh so you know when you're looking at this let's say in at the money 25 you're immediately dealing with the fact that this bid ask spread for instance is 375 bucks so you're immediately uh dealing with an absolutely illiquid market open interest of only five contracts uh and so you're you're going to find yourself in a situation uh where or 10 contracts sorry that the where the dealer is not going to be in a rush to give you something filled in the middle of spread you're going to end up paying a chunk now that may warrant it but you're going to have to accept that you hold an incredibly illiquid vehicle uh and therefore the more times you make a tactical adjustment taking profits rolling up rolling down you are going to pay a heavy market maker tax persistently so the only way to reduce that is if you are owning it purely as a buy and hold investor which is you buy that leap and say i'll look at it again two years from now if that's your thing you can uh try to get some sort of a fill and forget that you own it but it does not fit our framework we're rolling up rolling down overlaying hedges all these different things are very important frameworks for us to manage the uh 2028 leaps are an awful vehicle for doing those kind of tactical adjustments so really george you do need to be a long-term uh kind of buy it and forget it position to be out to 2028 all right uh moving on here a lot of people asking asking about occidental um i'll do occidental but don't we forgot uh lithium oh yes anyway uh occidental uh uh i'm not sure what caused the sell day today was there some sort of headline news i guess oh there was news of uh buffett acquiring parts of the company's chemical arm at least um but i guess yeah it went down on the news not sure not sure what's causing it i mean look uh one day doesn't make a new trend i would it's disappointing that it's breaking down that way but i wouldn't uh uh i wouldn't um you know make some drastic decision based on that now i wanted to quickly touch you on the news obviously lithium america lithium america's has been uh rocking and rolling right so when i put this on a weekly chart i want to highlight that we went through a vicious bear market where this thing went from 25 bucks down to two uh almost literally the the stock became an option where you literally could have owned lithium america's as a two dollar perpetual call option because after wiping out 90 of its value there's asymmetry in something like this now obviously the u.s government taking a stake in this has massively uh changed the outlook on the stock uh it not only ripped but then gave uh a pretty clear 50 retracement and then gapped higher again on announcement like this has turned the tide i mean it's going lit clearly uh this is a stock that could even be 10 bucks at some point here the um uh but it's has it changed the the uh broader lithium story well i mean something like albemarle continues to behave well like uh that very fast rapid dip it had uh earlier this week immediately got bought in the fibonacci zone is right back to its highs so you know overall um i would say that uh the lithium plays are looking half decent uh moving on here uh one of our members here was saying they were up uh multiple hundreds of percent um they've been slowly selling off each contract is it when do you really uh just exit everything at that point what is the decision making point well listen i literally answered that question with the slv which is those of you that have made stupid money on the upside on these things and you just want to sell the biggest problem you have is fomo which is uh which is that if you sell it and it keeps going you feel like an idiot that's the classic thing that almost always happens and so like i was demonstrating with the slv 44 by 48 november bull call spread if you feel the responsible thing is to blow out all your positions uh then using the profits to a tactically open like six week long bull call spreads is a very acceptable way of uh um of uh putting that on now let me ask you to follow up to this which is uh what do you do if you got out early and you're waiting for a re-entry it might be the same answer but you wait for a re-entry if you if you if you absolutely feel like you're um uh if you absolutely feel that you're uh fomo and you can always put a little bit of a bull call spread up because that's the only way to construct asymmetry in a parabolic move uh and then simply wait for the inevitable pullback to be putting some in all right let's talk about some of these energy stocks and would you consider them as income rights yes all of them lots in our cash flow compounder we're grossly overweight and your energy income rights you can do that all day long um questions or more of the other copper plays not so much fcx like ivn scco cop x would you recommend waiting for a pullback here yes well you have to wait for a pullback um uh so let's say scco like it literally is now finishing a measured move like you don't go and buy your new position after a measured move is done you can't you can't look they're still bullish but but at some point this thing's going to have a 10 to 15 throwback and then you go in uh looking at fcg instead of the natural gas itself uh i guess this is the equities right uh yes that's right yeah i mean if this can break out of the sideways consolidation bullishly to the upside then it's game on looking at ar you know uh so yeah i mean it's coming off its worst levels the problem here is is that um is this uh just a uh little uh fibonacci retrace before this thing goes for a double bottom retest or is this the beginning of a new bull phase uh look uh it's tested a major support line it's getting above its moving averages you can definitely dabble with this being a turn point but you want to see it stay above its moving averages and continue to follow through uh looking at ar this is ar uh by the way um sorry i wanted to just touch you quickly i never touched on the eggs i wanted to just touch on nutrient interesting sell day yesterday on nutrient and it popped right back uh it's it's um a good sign i i like it uh nutrient is a is a good position and you know when you generally also look at the uh the um uh eggs themselves like in terms of uh the commodities uh you know there's this uh here i'll just quickly look like corn could that be a major bottom maybe uh soy bean trading right at the bottom of the support line uh wheat still in a primary downtrend but finishing a measured move maybe over the fourth quarter we will see the lows come in on these uh on these uh ag stories but they've been devastated on the short term uh but maybe that's already enough selling on all of these all right what did you want to look at next bud eqt eqt well we already looked at uh the next uh this um okay this is all questions you've answered what are the pros and cons okay well there's more questions on coloring and another people asked a similar question so what are the pros and cons of coloring a high delta leap versus rolling up the strike to the intrinsic value and then there was a question about uh rolling to um add the money versus just buying a put so i guess you can say hedging versus rolling well look i mean we go in deep into this always in our option master's program like yeah i mean these are these are all different ways to approach the same thing so if you think about it if we have a delta one on a leap position and we collar it um we may bring the net delta of the entire combination of the overlay with the the core position down to a 50 cent delta uh similarly if you just rolled up and pulled all the intrinsic value out and rolled to being at the money you are also going to be probably close to a 50 cent delta and so arguably there are merits to say that the two are somewhat uh synthetically similar uh the difference of course is we're reducing the overall cost of the collar by selling off some of the upside while rolling it up leaves the upside completely open and you're obviously paying far more time value than you would with a collar and so where a roll up makes the most sense always is if you still believe the upside is big right like if you feel that uh that you know there could still be a 30 percent rise in the underlyings and they're still going then the roll up obviously would give you more direct convexity and upside gamma versus collaring which is selling away some of that upside at the late stages of a rally and this here is uh kind of the the big uh puzzle to solve when you're going through the important decision making as to whether you should roll up or whether you should collar all right we can finish it here thank you so much no worries all right listen everyone uh we're um uh we're going to uh get a bunch of these adjusting collars out uh yeah i know i'm but you observing here that some of the uh the gold miners down uh over the last little uh you know during the webinar look uh it's going to swing two dollars up two dollars down welcome to uh a parabolic move that's this kind of volatility the point is is that the what we said earlier is very much true which is our hedges are not long enough and they're not high enough on any of these gold plays and so roll up your sleeves we're going to have to get a bunch of these trade alerts out to um to make these tactical adjustments on here to lock these in again so those of you that want to just take your profits i can't blame you but replacing them with november bull call spreads is uh the way solution for uh emotionally overcoming the fact that you're uh flattening a position into something that is so blatantly in a parabolic bull trend and so that's the way that i would approach it there mass all yours buddy have a good day everyone i'll finish it there as well guys but uh just the announcement here for tomorrow 9 45 a.m we are going to have that bpt blueprint webinar it's on the announcements on the home page um again for you people that ended up decided to stay um then we want to kind of offer exactly a webinar on how to best use our membership some of the strategies are most successful traders are using how they built success at big picture trading and then we're going to finish with just a little demo for people that still uh don't know everything that we offer on the website so um definitely worth it to stick for at least the first half and then if you guys know how to navigate the website and everything that we offer there then you don't have to stick around for the whole thing but uh that's at 9 45 a.m tomorrow you can register on the home page right under announcement you'll see that link right there it's called your bpt blueprint so that's pretty much it's always eastern time 9 45 eastern time all right guys thank you so much we'll uh see you tomorrow actually um otherwise we'll see you next week have a great day everybody recording stopped