ChromaDB MCP Server

good morning everybody good morning patrick hey just a quick sound check i guess uh mass we can pretty much already uh just move into the um uh into getting this thing started and then just give me a quick message when uh everything's updated all right buddy sounds good let's get started all right good morning everyone let's get started oh you want to share your screen first yeah yeah yeah i'm doing it right now all right you can get and get it going recording in progress good morning and welcome to where's the trade it is uh the positions trading session for wednesday october 1st 2025 uh i'm patrick surezna uh joined here by uh masil who will join the conversation shortly uh uh we're out here in uh south africa absolutely beautiful out here uh looking forward to our mastermind members getting here for our big week next week uh is uh setting everything up uh mass and i uh decided to uh with luco uh uh shark diving uh with um in the cages with the with the big ass sharks it was uh absolutely insane uh but anyway let's it's beautiful out here anyway let's let's not waste any time and talk about some of the really important things that that are going on here in today's markets and so let's start off by talking about the s&p down 17 points here we are government shutdown look at the panic look at the panic i mean we were down 50 s&p points at one point rebounded back to 17 as you can see that this uh very well known event uh has proven to being a big market mover now jp morgan has talked about you know the scenarios the markets can be down two and a half percent before and then after the uh lock um sort of the um the shutdown is over the stock markets tend to rebound the psychology behind it is quite evident right like when there's anxiety about uncertainty and then once there's clarity the markets react positively and this is plausible but it doesn't change the frame from where we are which is we saw one of the largest market rallies uh from magnitude and duration 100th percentile for this decade uh without a five percent correction and still overdue is the five percent correction inevitably going to emerge uh during this uh shutdown government shutdown window or is it become a byproduct after these are the puzzles we're going to try to solve overall uh if the market isn't breaking uh i'd covered it in the macro outlook i won't go too too heavy but you can now basically anchor off of that 6600 level where basically that 50 day moving average is slowly creeping up to let me just zoom in on it a little bit and you can observe that that is about the 50 retracement of the entire rally since uh august and uh if we take just a rally that happened here as of september you can see the 61.8 retracement lies right along that period but more importantly look how it lines up with what were all the previous highs acting as support and the one thing i'll just keep saying is so long as this market just sells off quickly stays above these levels uh then you have to assume using that uh football analogy that the bulls are the ones in possession of the ball and might lose some yards on each play uh but they're the ones in possession still making the drive what we're trying to identify is what will cause the turnover where is it that the bears take possession of the ball and then inevitably start making yards the other way and this is not yet happened uh there is no evidence uh that is uh um that is started obviously one thing that uh we're going to be watching for is this which is if the stock market struggles along its highs and fails to make any meaningful progress i mean there could still be a prairie dog where temporarily breaks to a higher high breaks back down but what inevitably will happen is if the market gets sluggish it's going to have the 50 day moving average catch up to it and that is actually pretty important because you can observe here uh that well you'll very similar to what started happening over here for several months is that once the 50 day moving average started catching up it was really easy for the market to break down that hasn't really yet happened and it could still take weeks for this market to develop the the topping formations to really begin to roll over uh it doesn't feel like it has to be imminent in spite of the fact that when we see things like uh uh the the government shutdown headlines you feel like there must be the catalyst but you can clearly see the stock market doesn't really at least initially care that much and the question is what will it um uh care about and when when this gets underway now we did have the adp jobs numbers uh come out at minus 32 000 the jolts numbers yesterday came in in line pretty much but this is interesting because um and by the way this doesn't show the revision last month which was minus 3 000 not positive um 53 like it's showing here but we continue to see jobs numbers deterioration uh if the job uh and uh at least the indications now that if this uh government shutdown uh is actually underway that uh the 80 uh that the non-farm uh numbers that are going to come out on friday are going to likely be postponed but the the jobs numbers continue to be weak and you know what job numbers weak governments shut down stock market don't give a shit right now and uh and it's uh all that old saying of no one cares till everybody cares and then they all care at once and that's uh what will inevitably happen here is that there's going to be something that's going to be that straw that broke the camel's back uh event where some little news event that doesn't it's not on people's radar will inevitably be a trigger point uh for um for a market that potentially will turn down overall uh again we could have a breakdown of 35 points down to 6675 it's the first hourly fib zone uh it could break all the way to 6600 and none of it actually would yet officially be putting any nails in the coffin the market one way or another this is now uh almost like something like close to 20 days longer than the previous a market advanced longest advance uh it's definitely by six percent greater in magnitude we still have a date with inevitability this still has ninth inning written all over maybe this is extended um uh you know a tenth inning session where the market is just going to play some overtime up along here but uh it doesn't change anything that we talked about in terms of the bigger risks in the market everybody needs to be properly hedged up here um uh in their positioning and this i feel very strongly about uh on uh on that uh on that bigger basis so uh so uh this is where uh just very quickly we have we have time on today's session it's a position trading session so we can go a little more in depth i want to highlight uh we continue to have an equal weight index still struggling along its highs basically been flat ever since the early part of august or mid-august let's call it and um and it's been more or less trading sideways uh since the nasdaq down 130 points or a half a a percentage point a little bit deeper uh this is going to be an important one to watch uh particularly uh the mag sevens which are down 68 basis points at this moment uh you know will nvidia be able to hold this breakout uh so far it's holding it uh i uh this this this to me uh it like grab a bag of popcorn and watch forget about trying to feel the need to predict and take sides don't say oh i know nvidia will fail or i know nvidia will work i would recommend just grabbing a bag of popcorn and actually being an observer of what actually happens here because it is going to be i feel a very important tell because if nvidia's breakout happens uh then it might impulse to 200 210 on the upside and being a four trillion dollar mega cap right now it would almost certainly be the backdrop that it would allow short-term s&p strength uh so is this a big prairie dog and a massive fake out to traders is a puzzle to solve here um on that front you know tesla uh still holding on to those gains but also uh approaching previous highs as it uh completes uh or as now has exceeded a basic measured move so those previous highs are now that target zone and i always like to touch on google here because google um was hands down the leader in the last month and it definitely is now putting together five six seven uh trading sessions of profit taking and distribution off their highs could it still be a a bull flag could it still go back to retest the highs absolutely all of that is on the table but here we have a market that's trying to hold up and google is not contributing at this moment at least nvidia is on that front uh but this is the thing to watch russell 2000 is also uh given back its initial breakout uh the bigger question here uh as this type of a measured move on uh russell finished as it went for almost a direct retest of its highs from uh late last year uh is this where we're going to see the russell get a little bit heavy clearly uh you know when we think about our um uh you know core index uh tracking unit on this we um on the i'll show it through the iwm which is trading at uh this uh 240 we have uh a covered call uh up here out to december at 250 this is actually going to be very very important for us in the next little bit to find out what the next kind of move is first of all our hedge is now all the way down at 220 and so we have a scenario where uh you know we're actually debating is what's the cost benefit uh and the payoff of uh of actually advancing this caller higher where basically let's say we take the hedge from 220 to 230 and uh roll this from 250 to 260 if we did that obviously at a debit that's not going to be free to roll this up but if we did it at a debit is it a worthwhile expense is is the cost of um of adjusting this caller worth it or don't even bother to roll up to 260 uh and uh leave the call at 250 and just pay the debit to advance the put protection to kick in sooner from 220 to 230 uh what's the only rationale well typically i do prefer the hedge to be you know even five percent below the market at this stage from peak to trough 220 kicks in almost 12 percent below the market now so while we enjoyed this beautiful bull advance that that has allowed the iwm to rally up to that zone reality is is that experiencing a 12 percent um drawdown before the insurance kicks in seems uh a little excessive and it is on this grounds that uh the advancement of protective put from 220 up to 230 uh makes a whole lot of sense now uh we also in our equity index tracking portfolio have our spy positioning uh and uh with the our spy caller we uh did need to advance that uh that short call and we opened it up uh all the way to uh um 675 let me just kind of zoom in here so that um uh it's more visible so we had to raise that uh that short call up to 675 to give it a little bit of breathing room now the reason why i want to highlight we have to do this so the iwm and the spy are two very different things because the iwm we are physically tracking using the physical shares of the iwm it is a pure covered call that is um that is sold on the iwm on the upside but for our spi we are maintaining and holding uh a deep in the money synthetic uh at the 540 dollar strike and so we uh can't risk uh an assignment uh because we don't have the physical shares while it's hedged and uh from a margin perspective is covered uh at this stage we we have to be far more sensitive to the short call on the spy simply because we're using this deep in the money synthetic uh as our underlying which makes this a little more sensitive now for us as well we're in a situation where our protective put is all the way down at 620 so at this stage uh not too much different uh but actually it is a little bit different we're not talking about a hedge that kicks in from peak to trough about seven percent off of the highs um the question is does the do we warrant bring this up to 630 and uh putting that downside hedge to kick in about five percent below the market it is certainly something that i feel has to be considered because the whole point of this index tracking is we want to stay always invested through all market conditions right so let's review what the uh what the goal of this uh um equity index tracking service is right so let me just pull this up over here hold on and i want to highlight in this equity index tracking the objective is to always be invested i'll repeat that always be invested and what we're trying to do is manage uh a fully invested equity position by rolling collars uh persistently over it which is always blunting downside risk uh and we try to uh pay off um that cost of that perpetual insurance by always selling away some of the upside potential of our our securities we mimic this off of the jp morgan whale uh fund uh fund which basically is uh doing this with 25 billion dollars of notional uh where they're collaring it up and we're trying to construct a uh a uh collar around a main index position to have us always invested and uh always invested while uh managing the and lowering the overall volatility we're experiencing so the adjustment of these hedges is something that uh realistically uh is something that we're going to have to assess uh so moving on i wanted to just touch on uh a couple of the other uh parts of the macro markets uh the dollar index down 21 points uh today i wanted to highlight is there a chance here that that we're still gonna get a us dollar squeeze well one thing i was gonna uh was observing the macro outlook was that it is truly a mixed bag uh that while the us cad really looks like uh the us dollar legitimately breaking against the canadian dollar but the us dollar yen gave the entire breakout out like a fake out breakout uh and this neutralized this uh the us dollar bullishness there now the pound sterling bouncing but not out of the woods yet and the euro strengthening a little bit but very neutral on this front so you have this really kind of mixed bag on the currency front uh there i'm watching this closely because our entire trade um the entire trade sequence that has been a macro backdrop that's been running the markets for the last nine months has been a us dollar bear and the if the us dollar begins a squeeze it's one of the genuine things that i feel will catch almost all market participants offside if it happened i want to say if and this is the puzzle we're trying to solve will we get a dollar squeeze uh this retracement is the puzzle to solve if we see that this dip on the dollar is genuinely bought and we spend now a sustained period above the 50-day moving average i would be starting to lean that this was a double bottom we saw that is what would have to happen there it is not yet in my mind a double bottom we can call it a support line because it bounced off that level but i mean we could just as easily off this fiber retracement have a dollar continuation to the downside breakdown point being that it's still at this juncture very uh kind of uh neutral here uh on uh on this dollar front so uh let's watch now gold continues look it measures to four thousand for months we've been talking about the measured move to four thousand uh none of my members are surprised it's a it's a it's crazy seeing it how it shapes up and continues to develop develop but uh the four thousand target was the measured move and continues to be though you have to accept that it's very kind of late innings of this bull advance which is at some point we have to increasingly uh look at new asymmetric ways to participate in this because owning gold outright is not asymmetric um the downside risk is now uh probably equal to upside potential uh and uh on the on any uh short to maybe intermediate time frame obviously long-term gold's going way higher and so uh this is uh this is really about how do you manage something that's made this much money for us this quickly uh and that's the kind of things we'll delve deeper as well into tomorrow's commodity session but it continues to plug away oil gave back the entire rally i mean we have a scenario here where you know oil traders are going to be tested i uh obviously have positioned long in crude oil this is uh certainly uh the a fake out breakout that um that uh you can basically label which is that we were looking for the bulls to basically demonstrate in some way or another that this could have been a meaningful new start to a move instead it hits that 66 level on the upside uh and immediately fades off of it and now has it broken the fibonacci zone has it broken to a lower low no but it's definitely disappointing price action that almost certainly sets back the short-term ambitions of oil going higher i mean but it's still i feel you can anchor very strongly off of anas al-haji's thesis which is you know he said i have no interest in essentially making a short-term forecast on crude oil but over any intermediate period crude oil is likely going higher because uh because all of these forecasts are uh are just simply grossly miscalculating a how much production will actually go online because all these opec countries have already been cheating and putting this oil out on the market two uh is is that all of the demand forecasts are grossly too low especially in a reflation period where china is fire firing everything up again and uh and even issues like um you know art just sent me by the way art thank you for sending me that article but you know there was an article talking about how much of russia's oil production has been stalled out by the ukrainian drone attacks which is cutting um the black market oil uh off of the market in some degree or another but you can see that right now in the very short term the oil futures traders don't give a shit about those things but the question is when will it start to reflect on the price and that's uh going to be again a puzzle that we're going to be trying to solve uh in the next little bit uh the um i think that's pretty good for the summary i want to get to the trades because uh uh there's a couple things i want to talk about so uh we talked about index tracking i want to uh go to our uh tactical uh portfolio i want to talk about a couple things first of all um we we had to make a couple of trade uh decisions on uh both duolingo and india now uh i want to start off with the india trade now it's not that i'm not actually still optimistic about india over the next um here let me put it just on the sensex directly it's not that i'm not optimistic about india or that i don't think india can go higher i still do our dilemma was we expressed it with what is now an at the money call option that has only uh like a one quarter of time left on it like three months of time out to january so we're in a situation where we decisively needed a fourth quarter rally to be getting underway on this trade in order to justify being in it and this fake a fake out breakout where it broke out of the wedge to the upside and then gave it all back has kind of pushed forward uh any bullish move and the time frame from which we uh would end up needing to be right on this trade and so with this type of a setback the all the way i look at it is just going to give us an opportunity to take the trade anew where i we're going to cut out of the uh call option on india at this moment and in cutting out on it we're going to stay flat india temporarily with the intention that if india becomes bullish again and sets up we can properly reassess the entry and ensure that there is a sufficient time on the option for us to capture any next bull leg and so we are officially uh closing the alert came out on that uh so consider the india trade close the second thing we did was uh and well i'll quickly show it in the in the simulated account the uh sorry the second thing uh uh that i want to talk about is do lingo and now do lingo when it bounced off of its or approached its previous lows and we were sitting on all of those profits on the short uh we turned around and we lowered our protective call hedge down to the 280 strike basically we we went and said listen we need to secure uh this this hedge uh down at a lower level so that the short sell was protected and now we got that bounce and so uh with an it being an october 17th expiration and with the backdrop where we are in the markets i wanted to uh as we test a direct hit of a 50-day moving average which often is an important level we're at a 61.8 of the last leg down and essentially a 38 retracement of the entire decline from its earnings gap and so we're at a very important kind of inflection point where if this was going to resume its bearish decline this is a pivot area where it could naturally re-resume equally those people not in the duolingo short and feel fomo for not being in this also represents a very interesting new entry point for a duolingo short let's regroup on our thesis which is essentially this is a technology uh a technology app or whatever you want to uh pigeonhole it as uh that is does not have any moats in the end um it's fine that they gamified language learning but they are uh being priced at such a ridiculous growth multiple based upon this idea that they are going to dominate the global marketplace uh but what is clear is that uh artificial intelligence ai uh the new apps that are coming uh application of ai is coming out to the point where the new ai agents can literally build you language building courses right in the ai apps uh and not need uh to be paying for subscriptions to things like duolingo which really puts to question how they're going to be able to monetize this app and so i uh the the thesis was that duolingo which you can see was up at a 500 dollar stock is going to eiffel tower and the the model that we basically are using for comparing that is zoom now if you recall what zoom did during uh the covid period it was this idea that everyone was going to start working online and zoom was going to make ridiculous amounts of money now today we are on a zoom call zoom is still a functioning company it's still making money everything's still functioning at zoom but it didn't change the fact that after this thing ran up it still managed to wipe out 90 of its value or more on the other side uh i uh continue to to believe the duolingo has many of the same characteristics uh of this and the idea that this thing is going uh much much lower is still a thesis i don't see anything wrong with it bounced because that's what all securities do the question here is this the pivot where it's going to to turn well this is where we are publishing the roll up of the hedge we're trying we're taking profits on that 280 protective call and uh rolling it up to an uh to being at the money at the 320 protective hedge staying out to october 17th because i do think that in the next two plus weeks duolingo will show its hand as to whether this level whether it's going to break above the 50 day and rip much much higher or fail at this level we will see and i i don't want to go and be buying two three months of hedges i think two weeks will give us plenty of opportunity to see how this looks so uh just very quickly i'm going to uh just uh show um uh this trade we're going to do here is just going to close out you can see it's a buck 20 right now on uh the india i'm just going to come in here and just take the loss uh on this position uh and we're flat india right here and uh at the same time i'm going to come in here and what we're going to do is we're going to take profits on this uh 280 call i'm just going to close that market here because and replace that here with a 320 call option and we rolled up the protective hedge and took profits on the hedge and monetized it to reduce our overall cost base all right so those are those two trades there's a new caller as well on the ura i wanted to briefly i want to keep talking about this tactical portfolio but i wanted to highlight we did publish uh three collars in uh yesterday between yesterday and today we collared in sbsw we collared in btu and we are now rolled and adjusted the new caller on ura out to november it is at a more expensive debit but in light of uh the the move uh that we've seen and uh and the momentum this thing has i feel that this is a very appropriate way to have it collared i am going to go into detail on these collars tomorrow tomorrow's our commodity trading session this is where we're going to do this uh but uh this collar is officially published today so everyone can put that on and we will discuss it in much greater detail tomorrow okay so i want to uh spend a little bit more time talking about a couple of the other trades that we have on and then open up in about five minutes to q a so mass you can get some questions ready for me uh shortly the first thing i want to talk about is our tlt position so uh obviously i remain bullish to tlt i still think actually that ripped to 95 entirely can happen we have a now the obstacle that it is an october 17th uh bull call spread which is only giving us basically a two-week window for this thing to happen simply insufficient time it is uh it is going to be now our job to roll out this tlt spread which is going to be let's say call it right now recovering about 60 cents and uh if we let's say added one extra month i'm just it might be more we're not publishing it today but uh let's say we only went one month out to november let me just have a quick peek here right now a 90 call is a buck 47 against the 95 is like 30 cents and so we're talking about a buck 20 did cost for the debit spread less than 60 cents we're rolling it from the october uh uh credit that we get for closing out our position so it's going to cost us an extra 60 cents to add another month we might go to december but i'm just giving an example of what it looks like uh yeah when we inevitably roll this this does need to be extended in its time there's nothing wrong with this trade it's still holding above its 50 day holding above its fib zone uh the treasury bonds look like they've gone through that basing formation uh everything is uh is looking like a bull continuation there's no reason for us to abandon this trade we just need more time on the trade in order to see it through um so that's uh the one thing i wanted to talk about uh the uh the other thing just quickly talk about the tua the tua is obviously our play on the two-year treasuries more importantly a highly leveraged position on there where harley bassman and the simplify fund levers up the two-year treasury future uh futures to having the same implied volatilities as the 10-year bond which is still less than the stock market but this offers us a way to play uh fed policy while earning a positive yield and having something that isn't boring as hell uh and um and i still love this trade pays you a positive carry uh and we're going to continue to own it i think it's as good as cash at this moment and it's something that can be held in the portfolio and the final thing which needs to be discussed uh more extensively and uh my apologies that the mass tried to bring this up yesterday uh i wasn't on the ball on this mass so uh but uh obviously there was a big uh announcement uh trump obviously uh making a big drug deal uh pfizer was obviously the one that was focused on but it's a very symbolic deal on drug prices why uh it's a very symbolic deal because uh it really is showing that the end of this big kind of maga uh maha battle uh is we're on the other side of it and more importantly the economics is at this moment uh uh gonna probably still be working out for pharmas at their current levels and so what we have here is a legitimate healthcare breakout we've been positioned for this breakout but now from an xlv perspective this is the real deal uh i we've been talking about it for months the idea that it's already been fully baked into the cake and that the price wasn't going to go much lower the question was when was it going to give some sort of an indication or start the next bull face and i feel that this announcement um which most people would have thought would have been negative is actually quite positive why because there was a lack of clarity as to what was going to be the impact and how deep it was going to go and uh and they were pricing in a lot of negative scenarios and really at this moment we now have uh a very clear uh picture now of uh of that this is now on the other side of it and this is a breakout you can be playing these look at the way uh that merck and pfizer turned around this is a bottom now i'm not saying you go and buy merck at 87 today but or like pfizer today at 26 you can wait for one or two day pullback but let's let's make this clear this is in my opinion a turn point it has a although at least it has everything that can reasonably be the turn point now obviously i want uh this to demonstrate continued follow through in the days to come but consider health care fully game on here uh and uh and i think in all of you my members should be positioning for further gains here all right mass did i forget something i do not think so did a good run on actually i didn't mention that the spy hedges but uh we're gonna stick with them the way they are yeah um okay let's turn it to some of these questions we'll go right in uh some of the questions here mikey was saying patrick can you compare the indices to the arc and those type of stocks and the recent ad performance in them so arc names um can i just pull up the etf look they've been running uh and and the fact that they're actually still making higher highs means that uh meme stocks uh are um uh are in these kind of like highly leveraged tech stocks continue to work now it's nice that arc is going but if you think about it from an s p perspective it really requires the mag 7 to go recognize the mag 7 are such huge market cap behemoths in the s p uh and there's so few of these arc kind of stocks in the s p that even though the arc stocks may be showing that there's still flows coming into the space um uh i uh i generally think that if uh the bias sorry that the mag 7s are going to decide if the s p peaks out but these arc stocks will need to fade off their highs in a in a genuine turn and there is no sign of that right now this legit breakout uh you know it you could be uh targeting this uh to be still finishing a move to 92 93 bucks on the upside uh looking at alex he was saying could one use gamma exposure data to determine the correct levels of the puts and he put short calls there um yeah on those things well okay i look at it uh as a you want to be a certain percentage away from the markets uh you can look at gamma flip levels as a way to pick the strike because if you think about it if um you if you feel that dealer positioning is the biggest player on the table then knowing where the dealers flip to being net sellers of the market into weakness versus buyers is an important level but equally you have to think where cta's ball targeting funds all sorts of other types of technical signals will be coming in they all tend to kind of converge in similar areas but understanding gamma flip levels is uh definitely one of the ways that you can use to try to help you narrow down where the head should be uh emma here was saying lower highs not lower lows in uh on xlp would you consider income riding here on the sideways trend yeah uh i just think that we want to see whether oil holds out uh um you know like uh in in that regard uh it does oil not make a lower low you know because that could temporarily cause some stress points in these stocks but generally i do uh like the energy stocks think there's a huge upside on all of them but the thing is is that an intermediate market call like that does need a little bit of short-term market timing and this is where where this oil setback on this pullback was uh kind of just really put the question whether it's going to happen here in early october um george here is saying i'm a dummy for sure but could we look at warehauser 2028 leaps here dirt cheap so he's already saying don't talk about the trade just tell me what you think about these 2028 cheap leaps i generally i generally try to uh stay away from uh from really really long-term leaps because it reduces the optionality of rolling higher and lower we'll talk let's talk about it tomorrow and we can't mouse write this one down and and bring it up in commodities because i think it's an important question you know debating 2026 27 and 28 leaps uh in that position it's a good conversation for tomorrow uh what else do we got here okay nico said sofa question mark i'm not sure i guess yeah well that we that was in the tua but look i still love the sofa trade but it's just at this moment what is the catalyst that's going to turn it back up i mean it's nicely it turned up a little bit is the government shutdown going to be the catalyst uh look i asymmetrically this is skewed in our favor to the upside i don't know at this point what would have to happen in the markets for the fed to pull all of its rate uh cuts out of the market and subsequently in um even threaten rate hikes like what kind of a pivot would the economy and everything have to take so therefore to me the downside risk is very manageable i mean there is downside risk but it's not a huge uh tail risk and on the other end there is plenty of things that can go wrong that could uh like imagine the ai bubble burst imagine uh you know a repo market problem imagine uh a massive escalation in geopolitics and war all these different things could cause huge havoc that could cause these things to have to uh the the sofa to to rock it to the upside um and so to me there's so much right tail potential and with a manager so anyway bottom line is i love it i just don't know whether there's an immediate catalyst to start it up again here but i'm i i still think being long sofas and the tuas is solid two-year treasuries as well looking at tech obviously the merger uh got it going was a classic uh fib retracement uh and uh and is now pumping for a move towards some of these highs like measure moves up to 46 48. uh i o n q it's a fib retracement you could buy it on dip in the fib zone it's a bull trend talking about the move in btc and eth btc like bitcoin yeah and ethereum uh look um overall bitcoin held right it held the fib zone hopefully oil does something similar uh and just like oil coming to test those previous highs bitcoin is coming to this hurdle if we see bitcoin clear 120 000 it's it's going to measure out to the 130 target you know at this stage uh uh it's been very quiet in here uh can the bulls follow through and hold the gains and keep it above the 58 if it is there's a 15 000 uh upside on bitcoin on the bull impulse uh mo uh beautiful flagging formation hold held a 50-day if this is uh can if it can beat the overhead resistance of its previous high the measured moves up to like even 75 bucks you can definitely be uh still assuming that this is a clean bull trend looking at t-u-r that's the turkey tf i'm going to put on a weekly chart just to kind of really get a bigger look uh these are emerging markets that have potential uh will we see a bull breakout here on a weekly chart basis i i don't hate the idea turkey is such an important market louis vincent gav talked about it uh in the interview uh and this has been retracements i interesting it's interesting i don't mind it it's obviously a very illiquid etf didn't even look whether this thing is options but if this would if these are retracements and this is holding its 50-day you can be definitely uh playing some upside berkshire so it never participated on the upside like the other financials it's obviously a different vehicle but it's been failing at its fib zones while the financials uh have had this huge rally if if we don't see berkshire beat 510 where that fib zone lies and rolls over with the whole market off this level that's pretty bearish actually use that 50-day moving average out as your pivot look if this thing holds above its 50-day and clears the 510 hurdle then you can be bullish but if this thing breaks below its 50-day never clearing that fib zone there's problems uh use that 50-day as your um uh as a like a fulcrum pivot point for for this trade at the stage actually now let's look at the financials here the xlf look um this looks uh to me uh like the s p did last year which is essentially uh the rally was huge but look at how uh the momentum on the financials xlf has completely slowed down uh and while it looks like it's making a bold trend it actually has found massive distribution and overhead resistance very divergent momentum this if the financials break down below the 50-day that would be a big tell that the s p is ready to go to the downside uh let's see you're looking at oh so i lost the question xpev sorry x p p e v e v x p e v all right i'm just being special um the uh it held the 50-day on a retrace the measure moves for a double top retest of its march highs it can go a little bit more here all right that's pretty much it pat we'll keep the energy uh conversation to tomorrow guys since we're doing commodities any other last words no listen everyone look it's the same scenario we've been building which is this market is in the late innings of an extraordinary bull run and uh right now the bulls remain in control but it's very late stages and uh in what we're going to continue to watch for are there exhaustion points at least on the first shot the government shutdown does not seem to be the catalyst uh we don't have a friday's jobs number if the government stays shut down at least that's what i uh am under the impression of at this moment and so uh we you know we have to thematically look at what's moving in and where where things are developing but we'll give everyone an update tomorrow as as we see more of this develop all right so uh uh thank you everyone and mass i'm going to let you uh continue this conversation with everyone all right thank you so much all right sorry about that guys um okay let's do this first thing i want to say it's actually answering one of our uh new members here joseph you uh i guess you're doing all too long ago you're just asking um how should i proceed in setting up my portfolio just catch new trades along the way reallocate things um actually for everybody that uh ended up staying and pretty much renewing uh with us for one year we're going to be hosting a uh webinar actually this friday um i'll be actually running it but we really want to give a blueprint um on how to really make the most out of bpt so it'll be a bit of the demo um on how to use the membership and also to show you what are some of the most successful strategies that our successful members have uh you know taken and and how actually they use the service in general so uh we're going to be doing this this friday for everybody that's stuck around um again just trying to start you off uh with good value here in this uh in this new cycle of doing things so um join the webinar that's going to be on the home page you can register right here and we'll answer those questions on there joseph so uh feel free to come on it'll also be recorded and posted on the website um all right in terms of bruce you're saying can you show us some options for income trades um look patrick has always said this he's always open to show to talk about income trades uh you just have to like you know bring up a few opportunities you know ask if you would income right on this and patrick will be more than happy to answer those questions as far as that strategy goes um all right let's talk a bit about news now um yeah us obviously went with a shutdown i don't think it's really any news uh to anybody this triggered um the first government shutdown in nearly seven years the last one was actually when trump took presidency if does if this does end up being a prolonged uh shutdown we could see unemployment rate temporarily spike to um 4.6 4.7 from the current 4.3 level that we saw in august so it would possibly um affect the job market in that sense potentially making um powell's job i guess easier and cutting rates uh going towards the end of the end of the year as we talked many times there's still a high probability of one more cut this year in 2000 uh 2025 um which shuts down in uh during a government shutdown we can see most things that actually the only things that actually close almost entirely is economic data collection and reports so this is why there's uh we probably won't get actually a jobs report on friday and also visitor centers parks monuments so i know a few of you guys were talking about this in the chat here um earlier today and then partially closed um um departments would be like national parks monuments museums medical research otherwise everything else remains uh pretty open here um so anyways that's pretty much what i wanted you guys to see here um moving on warren buffett is reportedly eyeing um the next biggest deal in three years and i don't think this will come um at much surprise but they're looking to closing in on the deal to buy occidental petroleum's petrochemical unit so that would be the uh their what they call oxychem unit for roughly 10 billion dollars uh this would be the largest deal since 2022 when it bought uh allegheny i don't know how to say it uh which was an insurer for 11.6 billion dollars back in 2022 so as most of you know buffett will be stepping down as ceo at the end of this year but he will remain as chairman of the chairman of the board um so we'll see oxy actually interestingly enough didn't actually move much on that news um down yeah it initially i don't know if the price action here was due to this from oh we're sorry this is an hour chart okay so from yesterday potentially been because of that uh but anyways um we're pretty flat here on the day at the end of the uh at the end of the day lastly lithium america stock pops 35 as the government ends up uh confirming that they will take a stake to boost nevada project uh so right now they're looking at the department of energy will take a five percent equity stake in lithium america which is a canadian miner uh but they're only taking that state well the main reason they're taking that state is for their thacker pass project which is a lithium mine that will be be built out in nevada um which plans to begin operations in late 2027 so they really just want to make sure that uh the investment uh there goes through and they do end up opening up that mine so lac is up um okay it was up about 35 percent here on the open uh seems to to have given back a little bit but back up to its highs once the announcement was first made uh just a week or two ago um all right that's pretty much a damon don't be a dick no i'm kidding a lot of canadians here in the group i will be mad at you um okay let's uh touch on on some questions here you guys had answered a lot of them with pat here so let me just go up the chat here uh let's see oxy doesn't move on anything yeah i i was uh i was one of those people that held occidental for quite some time and it just never gone anywhere like you said it was trading sideways for so long uh pronounced like allegany allegany i so don't know how to say that word um bruce yeah when selling three to six months out what rules do you follow for closing trades example 50 first month 70 second etc um the only rule that we typically follow and patrick has always talked about when income writing is um if you make if you make two-thirds of the profits in one third of the time he'll always take that trade um in profits so let's just make this easy if i had a one-year option and i had made two-thirds of that income so let's say i got paid 10 bucks so i made six point sixty six dollars of that income in one third of the time so um in four months in that case then i would within four months then i would definitely take profits on that trade then the argument there is that you can deploy that money somewhere else um so you can um so you can actually achieve you know faster cash flow you know what we call uh time leverage at least in the cash flow compounder program we now gave it a name so um that's typically the rule he follows um other than that it's always a decision between cash flow and the um called the opportunity cost of holding a position right so if you've made you know whatever 50 60 70 80 percent of the income and there's still like and half the time has already decayed the question becomes should i take this position in profits to replace with another opportunity now if you have another opportunity that's the decision you you may want to take if you don't have another opportunity to uh income right on something um then you know letting that trade just play out and achieve that you know that other 20 30 40 percent of income left in that option is always going to be worth it because it's actually a safer bet it's in almost call it a higher probability um of achieving the the the whole income if you just sit on your hands um like i think logan said something here in the chat about um the hardest thing about trading is sitting on your hands and actually letting winners uh make those gains so that's pretty much it i hope that clarifies a little bit on that okay and you yeah and you had some big moves uh we talked about this i believe two days ago or something like that but yeah micron going on another tear up five percent here uh looking at this on a weekly chart yeah it's made some uh new all-time highs so uh yeah definitely very significant move too late uh to jump in here uh but um but yeah if you're in the trade you can definitely press this a little more but you would definitely want to consider uh a lot you know locking in some gains especially if it's a shorter term uh trade or swing trade that you were playing here what are the pros and cons of putting on the duolingo short with an in the money put versus shorting duolingo outright um the reason we didn't short duolingo outright especially when we did it was because of the high vol uh because on the first dip when we bought those shorts uh we had this pretty much this big uh sell off in the stock there was a lot surrounding the news after the release of gpt5 i believe um so yeah there's a bit of uh higher vol being priced in the stock i'm not really sure actually what the vol looks like today but that's really what you want to be considering right it's the uh question of um are you paying up too much um involved for being short with options instead of stock uh yes bruce that last yeah of course that that was recorded it was on the home page for a while i think it's moved to the member bonus content if that's what you're looking for so just called the future of bpt and the member bonus content what's the measured move on biib um okay well there's not much of a measured move well the only measured move i would look for this would be for a run towards its fib zone on this last fall because this is a very bearish chart um so there's not not really a fib extension you can play but you can definitely play the bounce of the last uh the last run on the bearish trend so in this case um anything in that 160 to 190 zone uh would be a run back to its to its uh to its fib zones uh on the weeklies i think yeah i am on the weeklies right that's the i think it's the most the one you can really look for i also had this green box here on the chart that just shows previous like key support levels um that you know bib has kind of held there's a very high chance if it does break the fib zone there's a very high chance it still finds overhead resistance around here uh so those are the levels i'd definitely be uh looking for uh on the weekly yeah can we look at the spot gold measured move from 2011 present giant cup and handle uh so from 2011 would be yeah all the way here so pretty much that big uh big consolidation consolidation i don't know why i'm all swear there that big consolidation between 2020 oh no you're saying 2011 so i guess go on a monthly chart okay so you're talking about this big like cup and handle i guess would be this one still right yeah so this is the cup this is the handle and this is the breakout i mean what do you really want to look at michael i'm not measured move from okay so you want to look i guess at this the bottom of like this range let's actually pick the midpoint yeah this this is so way past its price action um i think this yeah technically i think this is fundamental uh story around the move in gold looking at this on a monthly chart um and obviously this is showing no signs of slowing down and like we know with gold yes it can consolidate and trend lower but even then um you know it won't even be that significant of um of a consolidation until a trade sideways so more often than not the chart the chart uh trades sideways as prices consolidate before another big run and those can take quite some time right i mean this was a multi-year consolidation before gold finally broke out after the 2020 run um so that was a what one two three four four years before we saw a major breakout in the price we may very well see this repeat again once gold uh tops out but we're not getting indication that is happening right now uh yeah no worries valero yeah valero has been uh very good actually i mean patrick we're talking about these um yeah the refiners are definitely working uh came out of their bottom broke out beat significant overhead resistance level um that it that it was that it was uh trading below for quite some time i mean these are all the signs you want to see out of a big reversal pattern um and now we're getting continuation of a breakout again it's actually quite bullish especially for a play in the energy space if valero gives you any chance of a deeper consolidation i mean what we would love to see if we even get it as a a consolidation towards that 160 155 pocket it would be a great buy on dip um at those levels oh okay what else do we got okay that's i think that's pretty much and from the discussion to the top let me double check yeah i think i got most of it so yeah look we can keep the commodity questions to tomorrow um otherwise i think damon here has been uh answering all the questions i could what's the cameron's question i did not see it you would have to copy paste it again i'm not sure which one it is uh all right okay well that's pretty much it then guys look bring it up tomorrow um yeah no worries we'll uh there's some more questions tomorrow like i said that's the commodity day uh last webinar of the week and in terms of scheduling same thing next week we don't have any tutorials we'll be going to a normal schedule the week after that's the october opex week actually so thank you very much thank you very much for coming on and we'll talk tomorrow cheers everybody recording stopped um um um um um um um um um um um um um um