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{ "episode": { "guest": "Annie Duke", "expertise_tags": [ "decision-making", "poker", "behavioral economics", "venture capital", "product management", "leadership" ], "summary": "Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking in Bets and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, discusses frameworks for making better decisions. Drawing on her background as a professional poker player and work as a special partner at First Round Capital, she explores how to make implicit assumptions explicit, structure meetings for better decision-making, shorten feedback loops on long-term decisions, and recognize when to quit. She shares lessons learned from her mentor Daniel Kahneman on curiosity, intellectual humility, and adversarial collaboration. The conversation covers decision quality improvement, meeting structures, pre-mortems with kill criteria, and psychological barriers to quitting.", "key_frameworks": [ "Make implicit explicit", "Discover-Discuss-Decide meeting structure", "Nominal group technique", "Mediating judgments", "Kill criteria for pre-mortems", "Mental time travel", "The word nevertheless", "Feedback loop shortening", "Sunk cost bias awareness" ] }, "topics": [ { "id": "topic_1", "title": "Daniel Kahneman's Legacy and Lessons", "summary": "Annie reflects on her friendship with Daniel Kahneman, highlighting his humility, open-mindedness, and curiosity despite his tremendous influence and intellect. She discusses his pioneering work on adversarial collaboration, his willingness to acknowledge when studies didn't replicate, and his genuine interest in others' work. She emphasizes how his approach to being wrong and seeking understanding shaped her thinking.", "timestamp_start": "00:04:21", "timestamp_end": "00:08:51", "line_start": 38, "line_end": 60 }, { "id": "topic_2", "title": "Parenting Frameworks and Decision-Making Lessons", "summary": "Annie discusses practical parenting advice and decision-making frameworks she's applied with her four children. She covers the importance of children knowing they're loved, accepting imperfection, managing expectations, using mental time travel as a decision tool, and the word 'nevertheless' as a leadership technique. She emphasizes that parenting styles matter less than loving your children and that personality is not determined by parenting.", "timestamp_start": "00:09:43", "timestamp_end": "00:19:53", "line_start": 68, "line_end": 146 }, { "id": "topic_3", "title": "Quantifying Decision Quality Improvement", "summary": "Annie addresses the question of how much someone can actually improve at decision-making through studying her frameworks. She cites Kahneman's work on structured hiring that improved hit rates from 50% to 65%, and explains that the main barrier isn't knowledge but implementation. She emphasizes that competitive advantage comes from being in the small group of people who know about better decision-making AND actually do it.", "timestamp_start": "00:20:59", "timestamp_end": "00:24:54", "line_start": 150, "line_end": 164 }, { "id": "topic_4", "title": "Meeting Structure: Discover-Discuss-Decide Framework", "summary": "Annie explains her most impactful recommendation for improving company decision-making: separating the three components of meetings. The discover phase should happen independently and asynchronously before the meeting, discussion should happen in the meeting focused on disagreement, and deciding should happen separately. She details how to collect opinions independently using forced rankings, rubrics, and nominal group techniques to avoid groupthink and power dynamics.", "timestamp_start": "00:25:18", "timestamp_end": "00:34:17", "line_start": 167, "line_end": 200 }, { "id": "topic_5", "title": "Psychological Safety and Making People Feel Heard", "summary": "Annie discusses how moving from coercive to curious meeting models helps people feel heard without needing false consensus. She explains using reflection and questions rather than disagreement statements, how nominal group techniques increase perceived ownership of decisions, and why the word 'alignment' is problematic. She demonstrates facilitation techniques where the leader reflects back what people say without offering their own opinion.", "timestamp_start": "00:35:58", "timestamp_end": "00:42:41", "line_start": 207, "line_end": 231 }, { "id": "topic_6", "title": "First Round Capital and Decision Rubrics", "summary": "Annie describes her five-year engagement with First Round Capital implementing structured decision-making processes. She explains how they moved from just recording yes/no votes to creating a detailed rubric with mediating judgments and forecasts. Partners now rate market, team, founder, and product on scales of 1-7, make shared definitions explicit, and forecast Series A funding probability, allowing for feedback loop tracking and accuracy measurement.", "timestamp_start": "00:45:00", "timestamp_end": "00:56:05", "line_start": 247, "line_end": 318 }, { "id": "topic_7", "title": "Long-Term Feedback Loops and Series A as a Signal", "summary": "Annie challenges the assumption that venture capital has decade-long feedback loops. She argues that by shortening feedback loops through intermediate signals (like Series A funding, product-market fit, ARR growth), investors can learn much faster. She uses examples from First Round's data showing that Series A funding is a necessary signal for successful exits, and explains how this applies to other long-term decisions in business.", "timestamp_start": "00:45:43", "timestamp_end": "00:51:38", "line_start": 272, "line_end": 303 }, { "id": "topic_8", "title": "Psychological Barriers to Closing Feedback Loops", "summary": "Annie explores why people resist shortening feedback loops even when possible. She discusses the psychological comfort in maintaining uncertainty, the fear of being proven wrong, and how power law outcomes create confirmation bias for successful investors. She explains that tightening feedback loops requires genuine commitment to learning rather than protecting one's self-narrative.", "timestamp_start": "00:51:38", "timestamp_end": "00:55:47", "line_start": 303, "line_end": 315 }, { "id": "topic_9", "title": "First Round's Insights from Data-Driven Decision Analysis", "summary": "Annie reveals surprising findings from analyzing First Round's investment decisions over five years. She describes how they can now measure partner accuracy on forecasts and component judgments, identify which factors are actually predictive versus which people thought mattered, and give partners personalized feedback on their decision-making strengths. Unexpected findings show that confident opinions aren't always accurate.", "timestamp_start": "00:56:05", "timestamp_end": "01:02:34", "line_start": 318, "line_end": 349 }, { "id": "topic_10", "title": "Pre-Mortems and Kill Criteria Framework", "summary": "Annie explains that pre-mortems alone don't change behavior; their real value is establishing kill criteria with committed actions. She shares an example from a sales team that used pre-mortem signals like 'RFP written with competitor in mind' or 'customer only wants to discuss price' to create decision rules for when to stop pursuing deals. Kill criteria prevent the bias toward continuing failing projects.", "timestamp_start": "01:05:25", "timestamp_end": "01:10:15", "line_start": 371, "line_end": 391 }, { "id": "topic_11", "title": "Making Intuition Explicit", "summary": "Annie emphasizes that the core principle throughout all her frameworks is making implicit assumptions and intuitions explicit. This applies to hiring rubrics, investment criteria, and decision-making in general. Making things explicit allows examination, discussion, and feedback on whether intuitions are actually accurate or just confident.", "timestamp_start": "01:10:32", "timestamp_end": "01:10:55", "line_start": 391, "line_end": 396 }, { "id": "topic_12", "title": "Quitting Decisions and Sunk Cost Bias", "summary": "Annie discusses why people wait too long to quit, driven by sunk cost bias, endowment effect, and identity concerns. She explains that by the time someone thinks about quitting, they've probably already passed the optimal quit point. The data is strong that we quit too late because we need certainty before stopping, and we frame quitting as waste rather than prospective resource allocation.", "timestamp_start": "01:11:29", "timestamp_end": "01:13:35", "line_start": 410, "line_end": 418 }, { "id": "topic_13", "title": "The Glitch to Slack Story: Recognizing When to Quit", "summary": "Annie tells the story of Stewart Butterfield shutting down Glitch, a successful game with great reviews and funding, when he realized it wasn't venture-scale. After six weeks of paid marketing showed the unit economics wouldn't work, he recognized he should quit despite no obvious failure. By quitting, he freed himself to see Slack as the opportunity. Annie emphasizes the opportunity cost of not quitting projects that won't work.", "timestamp_start": "01:14:18", "timestamp_end": "01:19:21", "line_start": 421, "line_end": 438 }, { "id": "topic_14", "title": "Annie's Work and Alliance for Decision Education", "summary": "Annie discusses where to find her work and how people can help. She mentions her website annieduke.com, Substack 'Thinking in Bets', and classes on Maven.com. Her main passion project is The Alliance for Decision Education, bringing decision-making knowledge from adults to K-12 education.", "timestamp_start": "01:19:43", "timestamp_end": "01:20:35", "line_start": 440, "line_end": 452 } ], "insights": [ { "id": "i1", "text": "It's not that intuition is crap - your intuition is sometimes right. If you don't make it explicit, you don't get to find out when it's wrong.", "context": "Making implicit decision-making processes explicit allows you to test whether your intuitions are actually accurate or just confident.", "topic_id": "topic_11", "line_start": 1, "line_end": 2 }, { "id": "i2", "text": "The only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part. Discover and decide should happen independently.", "context": "Most meetings conflate three separate phases that should be separated to avoid groupthink and power dynamics.", "topic_id": "topic_4", "line_start": 8, "line_end": 8 }, { "id": "i3", "text": "A pre-mortem is great, but only if you set up kill criteria and commit to actions that you're going to take if you see those signals.", "context": "Pre-mortems alone don't change behavior; their value comes from creating structured decision rules for when to stop.", "topic_id": "topic_10", "line_start": 14, "line_end": 14 }, { "id": "i4", "text": "There is no such thing as a long feedback loop. You choose to shorten the feedback loop by asking what things are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire.", "context": "Even in venture capital with 10-year exits, you can track intermediate signals like Series A funding that provide feedback much faster.", "topic_id": "topic_7", "line_start": 20, "line_end": 20 }, { "id": "i5", "text": "Nothing is as important as it seems when you're thinking about it.", "context": "A quote from Daniel Kahneman about perspective and the focusing effect that applies to parenting decisions and life choices.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 119, "line_end": 119 }, { "id": "i6", "text": "The most important thing in parenting is that your kids know you love them. Everything else dwarfs in comparison to that.", "context": "Parenting advice that transcends all the debates about techniques and styles.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 77, "line_end": 77 }, { "id": "i7", "text": "You will drop your baby on its head. When you do, you're not a bad parent - you just didn't know something was going to change. Resilience matters more than perfection.", "context": "A framework for parenting with self-compassion and recognizing that children are resilient.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 80, "line_end": 93 }, { "id": "i8", "text": "By having four kids, you realize parenting personality traits are not driven by parenting. What you can control is making sure they say please and thank you.", "context": "Parenting insight about the limits of parental influence and what's actually controllable.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 100, "line_end": 101 }, { "id": "i9", "text": "The word 'nevertheless' is a leadership skill that balances hearing people while following through on decisions: 'I hear you. Nevertheless, this is what's going to happen.'", "context": "A specific communication technique that maintains psychological safety while preserving decisive leadership.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 131, "line_end": 134 }, { "id": "i10", "text": "The word 'alignment' is problematic because it suggests people must agree, which isn't reality and makes meetings coercive. People should understand decisions aren't their way but still feel heard.", "context": "Replacing 'alignment' language with acceptance of disagreement while maintaining inclusion.", "topic_id": "topic_5", "line_start": 194, "line_end": 200 }, { "id": "i11", "text": "Daniel Kahneman was humble despite his massive influence. When work didn't replicate, he was the first to say 'I wish priming wasn't in the book. It doesn't replicate.'", "context": "A lesson about intellectual humility that contrasts with how many researchers defend non-replicating work.", "topic_id": "topic_1", "line_start": 46, "line_end": 50 }, { "id": "i12", "text": "Kahneman invented adversarial collaboration - finding people who disagree with you and writing papers together to figure out what study would resolve the issue.", "context": "A powerful method for advancing knowledge while maintaining intellectual humility.", "topic_id": "topic_1", "line_start": 52, "line_end": 56 }, { "id": "i13", "text": "In hiring, structured decision-making improved hit rates from 50% to 65% - a huge improvement. Making your implicit hiring model explicit and using intuition after, not before, structure works.", "context": "Concrete evidence that making hiring decisions explicit significantly improves outcomes.", "topic_id": "topic_3", "line_start": 152, "line_end": 155 }, { "id": "i14", "text": "The gap between knowing better decision-making techniques and actually doing them is enormous. The competitive edge goes to the tiny group who both know and implement.", "context": "Implementation is the real bottleneck in decision quality improvement, not knowledge.", "topic_id": "topic_3", "line_start": 158, "line_end": 164 }, { "id": "i15", "text": "When you get opinions independently before meetings, people are less likely to conform their views to authority figures. You actually get to see the true diversity of opinion on your team.", "context": "Independent discovery prevents information cascades where junior people adopt senior people's views.", "topic_id": "topic_4", "line_start": 228, "line_end": 231 }, { "id": "i16", "text": "In nominal group (asynchronous group) decision-making, people focus discussion on where they disagree rather than where they agree, which improves decisions.", "context": "About 80% of typical meeting time is spent double-clicking on agreements rather than exploring disagreement.", "topic_id": "topic_4", "line_start": 176, "line_end": 176 }, { "id": "i17", "text": "When you run discussions by reflecting back what people say rather than agreeing or disagreeing, people feel heard and develop psychological ownership of decisions even when not getting their way.", "context": "Specific facilitation technique that increases buy-in without false consensus.", "topic_id": "topic_5", "line_start": 221, "line_end": 227 }, { "id": "i18", "text": "Interrupting someone, saying 'you're wrong', or directly disagreeing are all coercive conversation patterns. Moving to question mode and reflection increases openness.", "context": "Communication patterns that either enable or suppress psychological safety in meetings.", "topic_id": "topic_5", "line_start": 209, "line_end": 209 }, { "id": "i19", "text": "Mediating judgments are component judgments that precede overall judgments - like judging 'competitive landscape' before judging 'market quality' - they create shared definitions.", "context": "A framework detail from First Round's investment rubric that ensures partners have aligned definitions.", "topic_id": "topic_6", "line_start": 323, "line_end": 323 }, { "id": "i20", "text": "Series A funding is a necessary condition for successful venture exits. Even though it's not the final outcome, it's one of the best early signals of eventual success.", "context": "A data-driven insight about intermediate signals in long feedback loops.", "topic_id": "topic_7", "line_start": 293, "line_end": 296 }, { "id": "i21", "text": "If you wouldn't start something today, then anything you continue to invest in it going forward is the actual waste, not what you've already spent. Sunk costs are prospective, not retrospective.", "context": "Reframing the logic of sunk cost bias to help with quit decisions.", "topic_id": "topic_12", "line_start": 419, "line_end": 419 }, { "id": "i22", "text": "By the time you're thinking about quitting, you've probably already passed the optimal quit point. People wait until quitting isn't a decision - until it's forced by circumstances.", "context": "Why the signal to quit comes too late due to multiple biases.", "topic_id": "topic_12", "line_start": 412, "line_end": 416 }, { "id": "i23", "text": "The opportunity cost of continuing a project that won't work includes all the things you can't see until you stop. Stewart Butterfield couldn't see Slack until he quit Glitch.", "context": "A powerful framework for understanding the true cost of not quitting.", "topic_id": "topic_13", "line_start": 437, "line_end": 437 }, { "id": "i24", "text": "Mental time travel - asking 'how will I think about this in 10 years?' - is a powerful decision tool for getting perspective and reducing the focusing effect.", "context": "A specific technique for overcoming the bias to overweight immediate emotions.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 119, "line_end": 129 }, { "id": "i25", "text": "Different people have different strengths across different judgment dimensions. A partner might be amazing at reading founders but weak on market assessment. Diversity of opinion is valuable because strengths don't perfectly overlap.", "context": "Why multi-person decision-making works when you have good process.", "topic_id": "topic_9", "line_start": 344, "line_end": 344 }, { "id": "i26", "text": "Sometimes people pound the table passionately about something that turns out not to be predictive at all. Confidence about what matters doesn't correlate with accuracy about what matters.", "context": "A surprising finding from First Round's data analysis that even experts have inaccurate intuitions.", "topic_id": "topic_9", "line_start": 350, "line_end": 356 }, { "id": "i27", "text": "There's a psychological safety in letting feedback loops stay long because it allows people to maintain a positive self-narrative without discovering they're wrong.", "context": "Why both individuals and organizations resist tightening feedback loops.", "topic_id": "topic_8", "line_start": 305, "line_end": 314 }, { "id": "i28", "text": "Bezos's 70% rule - being willing to make decisions at 70% confidence rather than waiting for certainty - applies to starting decisions where luck and hidden information create inherent uncertainty.", "context": "A decision-making framework that acknowledges uncertainty is permanent.", "topic_id": "topic_12", "line_start": 413, "line_end": 413 } ], "examples": [ { "id": "ex1", "explicit_text": "At Airbnb, we did X... When I was at Facebook...", "inferred_identity": "Not explicitly mentioned but referenced as her prior work", "confidence": "low", "tags": [ "marketplace", "consumer", "PM role" ], "lesson": "Used as a reference point for how to interview and assess PMs - what it means to 'know a great PM when you see one'", "topic_id": "topic_3", "line_start": 152, "line_end": 152 }, { "id": "ex2", "explicit_text": "I talked to quite a few venture firms who are interested in talking to me post-Thinking in Bets... in 2018. And there was a theme across them all. The first one was 'we don't need to do this because we just know a good founder when we see one.'", "inferred_identity": "Multiple venture capital firms", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "venture capital", "founder evaluation", "2018", "resistance to process" ], "lesson": "Many VCs resist structured decision-making because they rely on intuitive founder assessment, missing opportunities to improve accuracy.", "topic_id": "topic_6", "line_start": 286, "line_end": 288 }, { "id": "ex3", "explicit_text": "Kahneman and a collaborator, Angus Deaton, they published a result... the idea was money doesn't buy happiness beyond $75,000... that got published in 2010... But then a decade later, Matthew Killingsworth said, 'That's not true...' And instead, it was Kahneman's like, 'All right, let's do it together.'", "inferred_identity": "Kahneman, Angus Deaton, Matthew Killingsworth - explicit names", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "economics", "happiness research", "adversarial collaboration", "2010", "wealth correlation" ], "lesson": "Demonstrates Kahneman's commitment to adversarial collaboration and intellectual humility when research is challenged rather than defending the original finding.", "topic_id": "topic_1", "line_start": 53, "line_end": 56 }, { "id": "ex4", "explicit_text": "A sales team that I worked with... they were going to have a meeting about leads through an RFP or RFI... they came up with signals like 'The RFP was clearly written with a competitor in mind', 'the customer didn't want to demo, they only wanted to talk about price', 'after first few meetings, they couldn't get a decision maker in the room'", "inferred_identity": "Sales team - not named", "confidence": "medium", "tags": [ "sales", "SaaS", "RFP process", "customer acquisition", "kill criteria", "deal evaluation" ], "lesson": "Shows how to use pre-mortem to identify early warning signals and commit to specific actions for each signal rather than hoping to act rationally later.", "topic_id": "topic_10", "line_start": 380, "line_end": 389 }, { "id": "ex5", "explicit_text": "First Round, I have another client too who, they're amazing, Renegade Partners at Roseanne Wincek and Renata Quintini... I talked to quite a few venture firms... before finally hooking up with them", "inferred_identity": "Renegade Partners - explicitly named", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "venture capital", "Series A/B focus", "decision-making process", "partner names" ], "lesson": "Renegade Partners was one of the few VCs willing to implement structured decision-making frameworks.", "topic_id": "topic_6", "line_start": 287, "line_end": 287 }, { "id": "ex6", "explicit_text": "Josh Kopelman about it, he said, 'Well, what do you mean? We don't get an exit for 10 years.' And I said, 'Oh, I'm sorry, do you invest? And then you go to sleep like Rip Van Winkle?'", "inferred_identity": "Josh Kopelman - explicit name, First Round partner", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "First Round Capital", "venture capital", "feedback loops", "Series A", "exit strategy" ], "lesson": "Josh Kopelman's question about 10-year feedback loops led to Annie's insight that there are many intermediate signals available.", "topic_id": "topic_7", "line_start": 293, "line_end": 293 }, { "id": "ex7", "explicit_text": "I did one of these discussions for a question about remote work... there was a lot of disagreement about whether... it should be consistent across functions... 'Well, different functions have different requirements, right? So there's some functions that have to be in the office, like if you're IT'", "inferred_identity": "A company implementing remote work policy - not named", "confidence": "low", "tags": [ "remote work", "hybrid", "organizational policy", "cross-functional collaboration", "leadership decision" ], "lesson": "Demonstrates how nominal group techniques surface real disagreements and allow leadership to understand the full space of options.", "topic_id": "topic_5", "line_start": 215, "line_end": 218 }, { "id": "ex8", "explicit_text": "Stewart Butterfield creating a product called Glitch, and Glitch is a massive multiplayer online world-building cooperative game... They have incredible investors in Andreessen Horowitz and Accel, they have $6 million in the bank and they have 5,000 diehard users", "inferred_identity": "Stewart Butterfield, Glitch - both explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Andreessen Horowitz", "Accel", "game development", "2012", "customer acquisition problem", "pivot", "Slack founder" ], "lesson": "Shows the discipline of recognizing when a project isn't venture-scale despite positive signals (great reviews, funding, word-of-mouth). Butterfield quit Glitch and pivoted to Slack.", "topic_id": "topic_13", "line_start": 425, "line_end": 432 }, { "id": "ex9", "explicit_text": "Stewart Butterfield writes a note to his investors and co-founders and says, 'I woke up this morning with the dead certainty that Glitch was over'... at the end of that six weeks... their acquisition of new users was growing like six to 7% week over week... 'if we continue to acquire customers at the weight we've been acquiring them at the cost we've been acquiring them, it's going to be 31 weeks until we break even'", "inferred_identity": "Stewart Butterfield - explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Slack founder", "Glitch", "paid marketing", "November 2012", "break even math", "early quit decision" ], "lesson": "Even with positive growth (6-7% WoW), Butterfield recognized the unit economics wouldn't work for a venture business when including rising CAC, showing the importance of forward-looking analysis over recent metrics.", "topic_id": "topic_13", "line_start": 428, "line_end": 431 }, { "id": "ex10", "explicit_text": "he's got this internal communication tool that his team is using in order to develop this product that everybody loves... maybe that should be the next product... he goes and talks to the investors, they roll their money over into that. And that thing, which had no name at the time, now gets a name which is searchable log of all company knowledge, which is Slack.", "inferred_identity": "Stewart Butterfield, Slack - explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Slack", "internal tool", "pivot", "2012", "investor rollover", "communication platform" ], "lesson": "By quitting Glitch, Butterfield freed his attention to notice and pivot to Slack, demonstrating the opportunity cost of not quitting failed projects.", "topic_id": "topic_13", "line_start": 434, "line_end": 437 }, { "id": "ex11", "explicit_text": "Todd Jackson on the podcast talking about product market fit... Brett Berson, your colleague at First Round, what to ask you.", "inferred_identity": "Todd Jackson - explicit, Brett Berson - explicit, both from First Round", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "First Round Capital", "product market fit", "podcast guest", "partnership" ], "lesson": "Shows the intellectual community at First Round and how colleagues collaborate on content.", "topic_id": "topic_6", "line_start": 242, "line_end": 248 }, { "id": "ex12", "explicit_text": "When someone was talking about how there's a lot of studies in there that didn't end up replicating... people in the field... arguing against the fact that it doesn't replicate. Just trying to justify or say 'But no'... But the thing about Danny was when you talked about it, he was the first one to tell you, 'I wish priming wasn't in the book. It doesn't replicate.'", "inferred_identity": "Thinking in Slow and Fast - the book, priming research", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Thinking Fast and Slow", "priming research", "replication crisis", "intellectual humility" ], "lesson": "Kahneman's willingness to acknowledge non-replicating research in his own work contrasts with the typical academic defensiveness.", "topic_id": "topic_1", "line_start": 47, "line_end": 50 }, { "id": "ex13", "explicit_text": "I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work... He's Danny Kahneman. But he was just so curious about other people", "inferred_identity": "Daniel Kahneman - explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Nobel laureate", "behavioral economics", "intellectual curiosity", "humility" ], "lesson": "Demonstrates Kahneman's genuine interest in others' work despite his own fame, showing how curiosity correlates with intellectual progress.", "topic_id": "topic_1", "line_start": 56, "line_end": 59 }, { "id": "ex14", "explicit_text": "I found a bag of red solo cups in my backyard that they forgot to throw out after a weekend that I was away. That's hypothetical. So I'm grounding them", "inferred_identity": "Annie's children - not named", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "parenting", "discipline", "nevertheless framework", "consistency" ], "lesson": "Example of using 'nevertheless' to balance hearing your child's arguments while maintaining your decision.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 131, "line_end": 131 }, { "id": "ex15", "explicit_text": "I have a Substack, Thinking in Bets. Please go check that out. I teach a class on maven.com twice a year on effective decision-making... My next cohort at the moment is in September", "inferred_identity": "Annie Duke - explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "Substack", "Maven.com", "education", "decision-making class" ], "lesson": "Shows how Annie shares her frameworks through multiple channels.", "topic_id": "topic_14", "line_start": 443, "line_end": 443 }, { "id": "ex16", "explicit_text": "I co-founded an organization called The Alliance for Decision Education. We're trying to bring the kinds of knowledge that we have about improving human decision-making in adults to K through 12 education", "inferred_identity": "The Alliance for Decision Education - explicit", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "K-12 education", "decision education", "non-profit", "curriculum" ], "lesson": "Shows Annie's mission to democratize decision-making education at the K-12 level.", "topic_id": "topic_14", "line_start": 443, "line_end": 443 }, { "id": "ex17", "explicit_text": "my oldest child when she was in high school, just for whatever reason, she had no interest whatsoever in alcohol or drugs... I remember just feeling so smug about how well I had raised this child... And then my next child went through high school and I was like... That's just a temperament thing.", "inferred_identity": "Annie's children - not named, but demonstrates resulting bias", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "parenting", "temperament", "resulting bias", "overconfidence" ], "lesson": "Demonstrates the resulting bias where parents attribute outcomes to their parenting when temperament is the real driver.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 113, "line_end": 116 }, { "id": "ex18", "explicit_text": "Dr. Becky teaches, if you know her, of telling someone, 'I believe you.' When your kid says something and they're upset about something, start with I believe you... And here's nevertheless", "inferred_identity": "Dr. Becky - referenced but not elaborated", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "parenting", "child psychology", "validation", "leadership" ], "lesson": "Shows how different frameworks (Dr. Becky's 'I believe you' and Annie's 'nevertheless') can be combined.", "topic_id": "topic_2", "line_start": 143, "line_end": 146 }, { "id": "ex19", "explicit_text": "Maurice Schweitzer and Linnea Gandhi, who are both at Penn... they did work on pre-mortems with me", "inferred_identity": "Maurice Schweitzer, Linnea Gandhi - explicit names and University of Pennsylvania affiliation", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "University of Pennsylvania", "behavioral economics", "pre-mortem research" ], "lesson": "Shows academic collaboration on pre-mortem research.", "topic_id": "topic_10", "line_start": 374, "line_end": 374 }, { "id": "ex20", "explicit_text": "Richard Thaler put it, most people won't quit until it actually isn't a decision... until you've fallen in the crevasse already", "inferred_identity": "Richard Thaler - explicit, behavioral economist", "confidence": "high", "tags": [ "behavioral economics", "sunk cost", "quitting", "Everest metaphor" ], "lesson": "Shows how behavioral economics theory explains why people wait to quit until the decision is forced.", "topic_id": "topic_12", "line_start": 416, "line_end": 416 } ] }