# Estimate Board
**Project:** Obsidian MCP Modernization
**Created:** 2025-10-29
**Method:** T-shirt Sizing with Power-of-2 Ratios
---
## Estimation Approach
**Method:** eXtreme Estimates (simplified)
**Proxy:** Functional complexity (test effort intuition)
**Scale:** XS, S, M, L, XL, XXL
**Ratios:** Power-of-2 progression (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32)
**Reference Item:** LOGGING-002 (analyze logs, create reports) = **M** (baseline)
---
## Size Definitions
| Size | Ratio | Hours | Description | Example |
|------|-------|-------|-------------|---------|
| **XS** | 1 | 2-3h | Trivial change, minimal testing | Update config value |
| **S** | 2 | 4-6h | Simple feature, straightforward tests | Add new constant, simple utility |
| **M** | 4 | 8-12h | Moderate complexity, comprehensive tests | LOGGING-002 (reference) |
| **L** | 8 | 16-24h | Complex feature, extensive testing | SDK-003, RESOURCE-001 |
| **XL** | 16 | 32-48h | Very complex, cross-cutting changes | TOOL-001 (33 tools) |
| **XXL** | 32 | 64-96h | Massive effort, multiple sub-tasks | (Not in current backlog) |
---
## Backlog Item Estimates
### Phase 1: Modernization
| ID | Item | Size | Hours | Confidence | Notes |
|----|------|------|-------|------------|-------|
| SDK-001 | Analyze SDK changelog | **S** | 4-6h | High | Research task, well-defined scope |
| SDK-002 | Upgrade SDK dependency | **M** | 8-12h | Medium | May encounter unexpected issues |
| SDK-003 | Resolve breaking changes | **L** | 16-24h | Low | Depends on SDK-001 findings |
| TOOL-001 | Update 33 tools | **XL** | 32-48h | Low | Largest single task, may need breakdown |
| RESOURCE-001 | Update 9 resources | **L** | 16-24h | Medium | Similar to TOOL-001 but fewer items |
| LOGGING-001 | Implement logging | **M** | 8-12h | High | Well-understood protocol feature |
| LOGGING-002 | Usage analysis utils | **M** | 8-12h | High | Reference item (baseline) |
| COMPLETION-001 | Context completions | **M** | 8-12h | Medium | Protocol feature, examples available |
| PROMPT-001 | Workflow templates | **M** | 8-12h | Medium | Creative work, but structured |
| SAMPLING-001 | LLM integration | **L** | 16-24h | Low | Most complex protocol feature |
| TEST-001 | Comprehensive testing | **M** | 8-12h | High | Validation work, clear scope |
| PHASE1-COMPLETE | Phase analysis | **S** | 4-6h | High | Documentation and decision-making |
---
## Estimate Summary
### Phase 1 Total
**Range:** 136-216 hours
**Median:** 176 hours (~22 days at 8h/day)
**Breakdown by Size:**
- XL: 1 item (32-48h)
- L: 3 items (48-72h total)
- M: 6 items (48-72h total)
- S: 2 items (8-12h total)
**Breakdown by Category:**
- SDK Upgrade: 28-42h (20%)
- Tool/Resource Updates: 48-72h (35%)
- Protocol Features: 56-84h (40%)
- Testing/Validation: 12-18h (5%)
---
## Confidence Levels
### High Confidence (4 items)
- SDK-001, LOGGING-001, LOGGING-002, TEST-001, PHASE1-COMPLETE
- Well-understood scope, clear requirements
- Estimates likely accurate ±20%
### Medium Confidence (4 items)
- SDK-002, RESOURCE-001, COMPLETION-001, PROMPT-001
- Some unknowns, but manageable
- Estimates may vary ±30%
### Low Confidence (4 items)
- SDK-003, TOOL-001, SAMPLING-001
- Significant unknowns, dependencies on other work
- Estimates may vary ±50%
---
## Risk Factors
### Underestimation Risks
1. **TOOL-001 (XL):** May need to split into per-category sub-tasks
- Mitigation: Break down after SDK-003 completes
2. **SDK-003 (L):** Breaking changes may be more extensive than expected
- Mitigation: SDK-001 provides early warning
3. **SAMPLING-001 (L):** LLM integration complexity unknown
- Mitigation: Consider P3 priority, could defer if needed
### Overestimation Opportunities
1. **RESOURCE-001 (L):** May follow same patterns as TOOL-001
- Opportunity: Could be faster if tools provide template
2. **PROMPT-001 (M):** Template creation may be straightforward
- Opportunity: Could leverage existing tool descriptions
---
## Estimation Learnings
**Will be updated after each item completes to track actual vs. estimated**
| ID | Estimated | Actual | Variance | Notes |
|----|-----------|--------|----------|-------|
| _To be filled as work progresses_ | | | | |
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## Velocity Tracking
**Sprint 1 (Week 1):** Target 40h of work
- Planned: SDK-001, SDK-002, SDK-003 (28-42h)
- Actual: _TBD_
- Velocity: _TBD_
**Sprint 2 (Week 2):** Target 40h of work
- Planned: TOOL-001 partial progress
- Actual: _TBD_
- Velocity: _TBD_
**Note:** Velocity data will inform Phase 2 planning and future estimates.
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## Estimate Board Principles
**T-shirt Sizing Benefits:**
- Quick relative estimation
- Avoids false precision
- Easy to communicate and understand
- Power-of-2 ratios reflect uncertainty growth
**Functional Complexity Focus:**
- "How much testing does this need?"
- Proxy for overall effort
- Accounts for implementation + validation
**Continuous Refinement:**
- Estimates updated as uncertainties resolve
- Actuals tracked to improve future estimates
- Velocity emerges from real data, not predictions
---
**Estimate Board Status:** Initial estimates based on planning assumptions. Confidence will improve as SDK-001 completes and breaking changes are understood.
