/**
* Expected Confidence
* Estimate expected confidence (0-100) from pre-AI indicators, futures coherence, and BTC stability.
*/
import { analyzeInfluence } from './influence-graph';
export function computeExpectedConfidence(_asset, marketData) {
const reasons = [];
const indicators = marketData?.indicators || {};
const trend = marketData?.trendAlignment || {};
// const ext = marketData?.externalData || {}
// const futures = ext?.futures || {}
let score = 0;
let max = 100;
// Trend alignment
const strength = typeof trend?.strength === 'number' ? trend.strength : 0;
if (trend?.aligned && strength >= 0.7) {
score += 18;
reasons.push('Trend aligned (>=70%)');
}
else if (trend?.aligned) {
score += 12;
reasons.push('Trend aligned');
}
else if (strength > 0.4) {
score += 6;
reasons.push('Trend partially aligned');
}
// ADX strength
const adxVal = typeof indicators?.adx === 'number' ? indicators.adx : (indicators?.adx?.adx ?? 0);
if (typeof adxVal === 'number') {
if (adxVal > 25)
score += 12;
else if (adxVal > 20)
score += 8;
else
score += 3;
}
// MACD momentum (abs histogram)
const hist = indicators?.macd?.histogram;
if (typeof hist === 'number') {
const a = Math.abs(hist);
if (a > 0.01)
score += 12;
else if (a > 0.005)
score += 8;
else if (a > 0.001)
score += 5;
else
score += 2;
}
// Volatility regime via BB width
const bb = indicators?.bollingerBands;
if (bb && typeof bb.middle === 'number' && bb.middle > 0) {
const width = (bb.upper - bb.lower) / bb.middle;
if (width >= 0.02 && width <= 0.06)
score += 8;
else if (width > 0.06 && width <= 0.1)
score += 4;
else
score += 2;
}
// Futures coherence + BTC stability via influence graph
const infl = analyzeInfluence(marketData);
// Map to 0-20 bucket
const inflNet = Math.max(0, 10 + infl.bonus - infl.penalty);
const inflBucket = Math.min(20, Math.round((inflNet / 20) * 20));
score += inflBucket;
reasons.push(...infl.notes.slice(0, 3));
// Clamp and return
if (score > max)
score = max;
if (score < 0)
score = 0;
return {
expected: score,
reasons,
majorMismatches: infl.majorMismatches
};
}
